Northrop
Boys - Girls
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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State Rank #27
New Haven Semi-State Rank #6
West Noble Regional Rank #4
Northrop Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 20th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.4%
Advance to State Finals 63.1%
Advance to Semi-State 80.7%
Advance to Regional 99.5%

RankNameGradeRating
38  Dustin Starnes 11 16:17
185  Quinn Guingrich 12 16:54
299  Aj Cambron 11 17:12
346  Conner Bayne 9 17:18
374  Jack Brokaw 9 17:22
391  Nick Derickson 10 17:23
458  Josh Prochaska 11 17:30
670  Skye Williams 9 17:47
Landon Cisco 9 18:01
John Miller 11 18:27
Ryan Elward 12 18:44
DateRace Rating
08/22 Huntington Invitational 317
08/29 DeKalb Classic 380
09/05 Marion Invitational 369
09/12 Bruin Invitational 330
09/19 West Noble Invitational 349
09/26 New Haven Classic 408
10/03 Summit Athletic Conference 413
10/10 Northrop Sectional 417
10/17 West Noble Regional 493




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 63.1% 19.0 458 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.5 10.5 11.5 11.0 6.4 1.7 0.2
Semi-State 80.7% 4.9 172 0.5 7.6 14.3 14.4 14.4 12.0 8.7 5.5 2.5 0.9 0.1
Regionals 99.5% 4.3 123 0.4 5.3 20.4 35.5 19.1 11.1 5.4 2.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 3.1 87 0.7 11.7 67.1 16.3 3.7 0.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 93.2% 43.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 81.6% 92.1%
Quinn Guingrich 63.1% 121.5 0.1% 3.7%
Aj Cambron 63.1% 151.8 0.0% 0.0%
Conner Bayne 63.1% 162.0 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Brokaw 63.1% 168.0 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Derickson 63.1% 170.1 0.0% 0.0%
Josh Prochaska 63.1% 179.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 100.0% 11.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.2 6.4 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.7 7.7 7.3 6.1 5.3 4.2 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 99.9% 100.0%
Quinn Guingrich 86.9% 37.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 32.3% 66.5%
Aj Cambron 80.8% 57.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5% 14.8%
Conner Bayne 80.7% 66.2 0.1% 6.2%
Jack Brokaw 80.7% 72.4 0.0% 3.2%
Nick Derickson 80.7% 74.8 0.0% 2.4%
Josh Prochaska 80.7% 86.1 0.0% 0.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 100% 6.8 0.6 4.0 8.7 13.2 13.8 12.3 11.1 9.9 7.7 5.5 4.1 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Quinn Guingrich 100% 23.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.8 5.7 6.2 5.7 6.1 6.1 100.0% 100.0%
Aj Cambron 100.0% 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.4 96.2% 100.0%
Conner Bayne 100.0% 38.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 94.2% 99.9%
Jack Brokaw 99.9% 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 88.5% 99.9%
Nick Derickson 100.0% 42.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 90.4% 99.9%
Josh Prochaska 99.8% 47.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 63.5% 99.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 5.5 0.0 0.7 4.8 10.7 21.0 23.3 20.8 10.4 4.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinn Guingrich 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.0 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.5 10.1 9.9 11.3 8.8 5.9 4.2 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2
Aj Cambron 19.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.4 5.1 7.5 8.5 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.5 4.8
Conner Bayne 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 7.4 8.4 9.8 9.5 8.6 8.0
Jack Brokaw 24.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.4 7.5 8.5 9.2 9.1
Nick Derickson 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.5 6.8 8.3 8.9 9.0
Josh Prochaska 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.9 5.1 6.5