Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Duke 99%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +23.4 1 A+ +12 2 A+ +11 1 0 1 0 1
Louisville 93%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.4 10 A +9 14 A +8 9 0 1 0 1
Virginia 91%   4   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +16.8 15 A- +9 18 A +8 13 0 1 0 1
Miami (FL) 74%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +16.3 18 A +10 8 A- +7 21 0 1 0 1
North Carolina 75%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.8 36 B+ +7 44 A- +6 26 0 1 0 1
Clemson 51%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 49 B +6 53 B+ +5 40 0 1 0 1
Virginia Tech 53%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.1 50 B+ +6 45 B +5 56 0 1 0 1
North Carolina St. 49%   11   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.1 51 A- +8 28 B- +3 89 0 1 0 1
SMU 40%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.5 58 B +6 54 B +4 71 0 1 0 1
Syracuse 33%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.4 60 B +4 68 B+ +5 53 0 1 0 1
Florida St. 30%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.9 64 B +4 71 B +5 57 0 1 0 1
Stanford 39%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.9 65 B +4 70 B +5 59 0 1 0 1
Pittsburgh 30%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.6 73 B- +4 75 B +4 73 0 1 0 1
California 16%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.8 81 B- +3 86 B +3 77 0 1 0 1
Wake Forest 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 82 B- +3 96 B +4 72 0 1 0 1
Notre Dame 17%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 83 B- +4 82 B- +3 87 0 1 0 1
Georgia Tech 5%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.0 106 B- +3 88 C+ +1 130 0 1 0 1
Boston College 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.2 110 C+ +2 109 C+ +1 121 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 3 43% 28% 11% 4% 43 20 13 8 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Louisville 4 24% 14% 7% 3% 24 19 14 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Virginia 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 16 13 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 6 11% 5% 4% 2% 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
North Carolina 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1
Virginia Tech 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1
Clemson 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 1
North Carolina St. 8 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1
Stanford 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2
SMU 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3
Syracuse 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 2
Florida St. 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3
Pittsburgh 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 4
Notre Dame 11 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5
Wake Forest 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 5
California 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 7
Georgia Tech 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 16 18
Boston College 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 16 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 13 - 5 25 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 14 18 19 15 10 4 1
Louisville 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 16 17 14 9 5 1 0
Virginia 12 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 9 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 1 0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 16 15 12 8 4 2 0 0
North Carolina 10 - 8 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 20 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Clemson 10 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 15 13 10 7 3 1 0 0 0
Stanford 9 - 9 19 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
SMU 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 1 2 4 7 9 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Syracuse 8 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 0 2 4 7 11 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Florida St. 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 15 14 11 9 5 3 1 0 0 0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 14 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 15 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Wake Forest 8 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 1 4 6 10 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
California 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 15 - 17 1 2 7 11 15 16 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Boston College 6 - 12 12 - 17 1 3 7 12 15 16 15 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Duke 99% 27% 99% 1 Likely In 29 24 15 10 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1
Louisville 93% 16% 91% 3 Likely In 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 5 1 7
Virginia 91% 15% 89% 4 Likely In 10 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 5 6 1 9
Miami (FL) 74% 9% 72% 8 Bubble - In 2 4 5 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 12 2 26
North Carolina 75% 7% 73% 8 Bubble - In 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 11 2 25
Clemson 51% 4% 49% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 13 3 49
Virginia Tech 53% 5% 50% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 12 2 47
North Carolina St. 49% 4% 47% 11 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 13 4 51
SMU 40% 2% 38% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 6 11 3 60
Syracuse 33% 2% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 10 2 67
Florida St. 30% 2% 29% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 10 3 70
Stanford 39% 2% 38% Bubble - Out 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 6 10 4 61
Pittsburgh 30% 2% 28% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 70
California 16% 1% 15% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 2 84
Wake Forest 19% 1% 18% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 81
Notre Dame 17% 1% 16% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 6 2 83
Georgia Tech 5% 0% 5% Likely Out 0 1 1 2 1 95
Boston College 4% 0% 4% Likely Out 0 0 0 1 2 1 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 8.2 0 1 8 21 31 25 11 3 0 0
1st Round 100% 7.0 0 0 2 9 23 31 23 10 2 0 0 0
2nd Round 100% 4.6 0 1 4 15 28 29 16 6 1 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 97% 2.4 3 18 34 29 12 3 0 0
Elite Eight 78% 1.2 22 42 28 7 1 0
Final Four 51% 0.6 49 40 10 1 0
Final Game 30% 0.3 70 28 2
Champion 17% 0.2 83 17

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99% 2% 99% 87% 57% 35% 20% 12% 7%
Louisville 93% 8% 89% 69% 40% 22% 11% 6% 3%
Virginia 91% 10% 86% 66% 39% 21% 11% 6% 3%
Miami (FL) 74% 19% 66% 43% 21% 10% 5% 2% 1%
North Carolina 75% 16% 66% 42% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Clemson 51% 19% 41% 22% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Virginia Tech 53% 18% 44% 25% 11% 5% 2% 1%
North Carolina St. 49% 19% 40% 22% 9% 4% 2% 1%
SMU 40% 17% 31% 15% 6% 2% 1%
Syracuse 33% 15% 25% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Florida St. 30% 14% 23% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Stanford 39% 17% 31% 16% 6% 3% 1%
Pittsburgh 30% 14% 22% 11% 4% 2% 1%
California 16% 9% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Wake Forest 19% 10% 14% 6% 2% 1%
Notre Dame 17% 9% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Georgia Tech 5% 3% 3% 1%
Boston College 4% 3% 3% 1%