Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UNC Wilmington 27%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.8 107 B- +3 90 C +1 140 0 1 0 1
College of Charleston 16%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.6 132 C+ +2 111 C +0 173 0 1 0 1
Hofstra 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.4 148 C- -1 203 C+ +2 105 0 1 0 1
Towson 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.1 192 D+ -3 261 C+ +1 133 0 1 0 1
Monmouth 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.5 199 C- -2 236 C +0 171 0 1 0 1
Hampton 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.1 213 C- -2 213 C- -2 217 0 1 0 1
William & Mary 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.5 221 C- -2 209 C- -2 240 0 1 0 1
Elon 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 224 C -1 183 D+ -3 276 0 1 0 1
Stony Brook 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 225 C- -2 214 C- -2 241 0 1 0 1
Campbell 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 244 C- -2 215 D+ -3 273 0 1 0 1
Drexel 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.6 247 D -4 295 C +0 169 0 1 0 1
Northeastern 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 250 C- -1 201 D -3 294 0 1 0 1
N.C. A&T 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.4 294 D+ -3 268 D -4 327 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3 41% 29% 9% 3% 41 20 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
College of Charleston 4 20% 12% 5% 2% 20 16 13 12 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1
Hofstra 5 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 1
Towson 6 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3
Monmouth 6 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4
Hampton 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 5 4
Stony Brook 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5
William & Mary 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5
Elon 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7
Northeastern 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8
Campbell 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Drexel 8 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
N.C. A&T 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 11 13 16 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 16 15 12 7 3 1
College of Charleston 11 - 7 16 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 8 5 2 1 0
Hofstra 11 - 7 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Towson 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Monmouth 9 - 9 14 - 18 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Hampton 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 2 3 6 8 10 13 13 14 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Stony Brook 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
William & Mary 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Elon 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Northeastern 8 - 10 12 - 19 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 11 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Campbell 8 - 10 12 - 19 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
Drexel 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 13 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
N.C. A&T 6 - 12 10 - 18 0 1 4 8 12 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UNC Wilmington 27% 26% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 4 11 8 3 73
College of Charleston 16% 15% 0% Negligible 1 5 5 3 84
Hofstra 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 3 5 3 1 87
Towson 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 2 3 1 92
Monmouth 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 2 3 1 93
Hampton 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 95
William & Mary 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 1 2 1 95
Elon 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 96
Stony Brook 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 95
Campbell 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 97
Drexel 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 97
Northeastern 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 96
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 98 2
1st Round 87% 0.9 13 86 1
2nd Round 13% 0.1 87 13 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 27% 2% 26% 5% 1%
College of Charleston 16% 2% 14% 2% 1%
Hofstra 13% 2% 12% 2%
Towson 8% 3% 6% 1%
Monmouth 7% 2% 6% 1%
Hampton 5% 3% 4%
William & Mary 5% 2% 4%
Elon 4% 2% 3%
Stony Brook 5% 2% 4%
Campbell 3% 2% 2%
Drexel 3% 2% 2%
Northeastern 4% 2% 3%
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 1%