• Methodology
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• 2026 - 2027
  • Team Rankings
  • Offense
  • Defenses
  • Conferences

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  • Projected Seeding
  • Selection Simulation
  • At-Large Selection

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  • Preseason

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2026-27

All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details. Rating Rank INCC Stats Predictive Rating -1.3 177 INCC Stats Results Rating +0.0 1 Consistency Pace 74.8 31 Improvement - - Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free throws Shot Selection Offense C- 198 D+ C+ C C- D- Defense C 161 D+ C- B D- D- Offense Breakdown Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect Close Shots 38% 191 C+ 56% 151 +0.1 177 2 Pt. Jumpers 62% 10 C 35% 197 +3.6 33 Three Pointers 30% 352 D+ 30% 292 -6.3 348 Selection / Accuracy D- -1.5 336 C- -1.0 215 1st FG Attempt D+ 0.92 256 Second Chance C+ 32.4% 109 C 1.03 167 C+ 0.33 121 Opponents' Steals D+ 10.2% 263 Other Turnovers B 7.0% 70 Turnovers C 17.2% 173 Freethrows D+ 0.27 285 B 76% 58 C- 0.21 233 Total Offense C- -1.3 198 Assists Opponents' Blocks Close Shots C 52% 164 C+ 9.8% 118 2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 314 B+ 2.4% 24 Three Pointers F+ 74% 351 C 0.8% 175 Total D- 48% 335 B- 4.8% 84 Defense Breakdown Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect Close Shots 44% 37 C 55% 156 +3.6 303 2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 344 D 39% 300 -1.4 73 Three Pointers 41% 170 D+ 34% 281 +1.7 275 Selection / Accuracy D- +1.2 353 C- +1.3 244 1st FG Attempt D+ 1.02 282 Second Chance C 30.6% 198 C- 1.06 233 C- 0.32 224 Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.0% 26 Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 233 Turnovers B 18.9% 55 Freethrows D 0.35 317 D 75% 306 D- 0.26 333 Total Defense C -0.1 161 Assists Blocks Close Shots C- 53% 218 C- 10.2% 207 2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 248 C+ 6.1% 94 Three Pointers C- 88% 215 A- 2.0% 25 Total C- 61% 244 C+ 6.2% 128 Miscellaneous Offense Defense Possession Length 16.6 93 16.7 65 Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 72 0.22 326 Consistency 0 0

NCAA Tournament Selection At-Large Chances Negligible (0%) Projected Seeding 16 seed   Prediction Ranges Pessimistic 5th Percentile Expected 50th Percentile Optimistic 95th Percentile Overall Record 10 - 12 15 - 8 19 - 4 Predictive Rating Rank 281 188 121 Results Rating Rank 309 200 105 Conference Record 7 - 9 11 - 5 14 - 2 Conference Finish 6 2 1 NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14 NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round Now Win Next Lose Next #1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0% #1 Seed 0% 0% 0% Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0% Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0% Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0% Opening Round Bye 28% 40% 23% NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 42% 34% At-Large Status Negligible Negligible Negligible At-Large Bid 0% 0% 0% Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.3 .500 or above 89% 95% 86% .500 or above in Conf 92% 94% 91% Conference Champion 46% 52% 43% Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1% Opening Round 26% 25% 26% First Round 24% 31% 22% Second Round 2% 3% 2% Sweet Sixteen 0% 0% 0% Elite Eight 0% 0% 0% Final Four 0% 0% 0% Championship Game 0% 0% 0% National Champion 0% 0% 0% Next Game: Murray St. (Neutral) - 28% chance of victory Wins-Avg Loss Future Record Wins Chance At-Large Chance Avg Seed At-Large Selection Chances Indiv. Cumul. 22 - 1 22 - 1 0% 100% 100% 11 Lock 21 - 2 21 - 2 1% 100% Negligible 20 - 3 20 - 3 2% 99% Negligible 19 - 4 19 - 4 5% 97% Negligible 18 - 5 18 - 5 9% 92% Negligible 17 - 6 17 - 6 12% 83% Negligible 16 - 7 16 - 7 14% 71% Negligible 15 - 8 15 - 8 13% 57% Negligible 14 - 9 14 - 9 12% 44% Negligible 13 - 10 13 - 10 10% 32% Negligible 12 - 11 12 - 11 8% 21% Negligible 11 - 12 11 - 12 6% 14% Negligible 10 - 12 10 - 12 4% 8% Negligible 9 - 14 9 - 14 2% 4% Negligible 8 - 14 8 - 14 1% 2% Negligible 7 - 15 7 - 15 1% 1% Negligible 6 - 16 6 - 16 0% 1% Negligible 5 - 17 5 - 17 0% 0% Negligible 4 - 18 4 - 18 0% 0% Negligible 3 - 18 3 - 18 0% 0% Negligible Projected Record by Quadrant Quad Projected Projected Cumulative Quad 1a 0 - 1 0 - 1 Quad 1b 0 - 1 0 - 2 Quad 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 Quad 3 1 - 1 1 - 3 Quad 4 14 - 5 15 - 8

Date		Opponent	Result/Prediction			Lead		Record		Total Rating		Offense					Defense
						Avg	Time	Overall	Conf			Total		First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total		First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 2		100 Murray St.	L	77 - 83	28%
Fri, Nov 13		17 Tennessee	L	62 - 83	3%
Sun, Nov 29		52 Oklahoma St.	L	74 - 89	10%
Fri, Dec 4		334 Grambling St.	W	76 - 67	76%
Sat, Dec 5		326 Florida A&M	W	77 - 69	76%
Fri, Dec 11		363 Western Illinois	W	77 - 66	78%				✓
Sat, Dec 19		306 Alabama A&M	W	76 - 66	80%
Thu, Dec 31		325 Southern Indiana	W	76 - 71	63%				✓
Sat, Jan 2		354 Eastern Illinois	W	74 - 66	70%				✓
Thu, Jan 7		363 Western Illinois	W	80 - 63	90%				✓
Sat, Jan 9		278 SIU Edwardsville	W	72 - 64	75%				✓
Sat, Jan 16		328 Morehead St.	W	78 - 67	81%				✓
Thu, Jan 21		308 Lindenwood	W	79 - 75	61%				✓
Sat, Jan 23		270 Southeast Missouri St.	W	74 - 73	54%				✓
Thu, Jan 28		325 Southern Indiana	W	79 - 68	80%				✓
Sat, Jan 30		298 Tennessee Martin	W	72 - 63	76%				✓
Thu, Feb 4		308 Lindenwood	W	82 - 72	79%				✓
Thu, Feb 11		354 Eastern Illinois	W	77 - 63	85%				✓
Wed, Feb 17		278 SIU Edwardsville	W	69 - 67	54%				✓
Thu, Feb 25		298 Tennessee Martin	W	69 - 66	57%				✓
Sat, Feb 27		270 Southeast Missouri St.	W	77 - 70	72%				✓
Totals								15 - 8	11 - 4		-1	C-	-1	C	C-	D-	C	+0	D+	B	C-

NCAA Tournament Selection

Wins-Avg Loss	Future Record	Wins Chance			Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	At-Large Selection Chances		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16		No Bid
		Indiv.	Cumul.
22 - 1	22 - 1	0%	100%		100%	91%	100%	11	Lock											0		0	0
21 - 2	21 - 2	1%	100%		94%	94%		13	Negligible														0	0				0
20 - 3	20 - 3	2%	99%		94%	94%		14	Negligible														1	1				0
19 - 4	19 - 4	5%	97%		84%	84%		14	Negligible															2	2			1
18 - 5	18 - 5	9%	92%		71%	71%		15	Negligible															1	5			3
17 - 6	17 - 6	12%	83%		65%	65%		15	Negligible																5	2		4
16 - 7	16 - 7	14%	71%		49%	49%		16	Negligible																3	4		7
15 - 8	15 - 8	13%	57%		35%	35%		16	Negligible																1	4		9
14 - 9	14 - 9	12%	44%		19%	19%		16	Negligible																	2		10
13 - 10	13 - 10	10%	32%		8%	8%		16	Negligible																	1		9
12 - 11	12 - 11	8%	21%		2%	2%		16	Negligible																	0		8
11 - 12	11 - 12	6%	14%		1%	1%		16	Negligible																	0		6
10 - 12	10 - 12	4%	8%		1%	1%		16	Negligible																	0		4
9 - 14	9 - 14	2%	4%						Negligible																			2
8 - 14	8 - 14	1%	2%						Negligible																			1
7 - 15	7 - 15	1%	1%						Negligible																			1
6 - 16	6 - 16	0%	1%						Negligible																			0
5 - 17	5 - 17	0%	0%						Negligible																			0
4 - 18	4 - 18	0%	0%						Negligible																			0
3 - 18	3 - 18	0%	0%						Negligible																			0
Total		100%			36%	36%	0%	15	Negligible														1	5	16	14		64

At-Large Selection Detail

Wins-Avg Loss	Future Record	Avg Conf Record	Wins Chance			At-Large	Opening Bye	Avg Seed	At-Large Selection Chances		Average Rating Rank			Average Quad Records
			Indiv.	Cumul.							Predictive	Results	NET	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4
22 - 1	22 - 1	15 - 0	0%	100%		100%	0%	11	Lock		99	21	57	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 0	19 - 0
21 - 2	21 - 2	15 - 0	1%	100%					Negligible		116	56	86	0 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 0	19 - 0
20 - 3	20 - 3	14 - 1	2%	99%					Negligible		122	84	103	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 0	18 - 1
19 - 4	19 - 4	14 - 1	5%	97%					Negligible		135	109	122	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	18 - 2
18 - 5	18 - 5	13 - 2	9%	92%					Negligible		146	132	139	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	17 - 2
17 - 6	17 - 6	12 - 3	12%	83%					Negligible		159	155	156	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	16 - 3
16 - 7	16 - 7	12 - 3	14%	71%					Negligible		173	177	174	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	15 - 4
15 - 8	15 - 8	11 - 4	13%	57%					Negligible		187	200	192	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	14 - 5
14 - 9	14 - 9	10 - 5	12%	44%					Negligible		204	224	213	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	13 - 5
13 - 10	13 - 10	10 - 5	10%	32%					Negligible		219	246	231	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	12 - 6
12 - 11	12 - 11	9 - 6	8%	21%					Negligible		237	267	251	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2	11 - 7
11 - 12	11 - 12	8 - 7	6%	14%					Negligible		251	286	267	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 2	11 - 8
10 - 12	10 - 12	8 - 7	4%	8%					Negligible		265	303	283	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 2	10 - 9
9 - 14	9 - 14	7 - 8	2%	4%					Negligible		281	319	300	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2	9 - 9
8 - 14	8 - 14	6 - 9	1%	2%					Negligible		291	331	312	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2	8 - 10
7 - 15	7 - 15	5 - 10	1%	1%					Negligible		307	341	326	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 2	7 - 11
6 - 16	6 - 16	5 - 10	0%	1%					Negligible		313	350	336	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2	6 - 11
5 - 17	5 - 17	4 - 11	0%	0%					Negligible		323	357	345	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 2	5 - 12
4 - 18	4 - 18	4 - 12	0%	0%					Negligible		338	359	353	0 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	4 - 13
3 - 18	3 - 18	2 - 13	0%	0%					Negligible		344	364	359	0 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2	2 - 14
Total		11 - 4	100%			0%	0%	15	Negligible		193	204	198	0 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 1	14 - 5

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	Wins Chance			Champ	Co-Champions					Finishing Place (Percent of all possible outcomes)
	Indiv.	Cumul.			0	1	2	3+		1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th		Total
16-0
15-1	2%	100%		100%	100%					2										2
14-2	7%	98%		99%	97%	2%				7	0									7
13-3	13%	91%		94%	82%	11%	0%			12	1									13
12-4	17%	77%		78%	53%	23%	3%	0%		14	4	0								17
11-5	18%	60%		46%	18%	21%	6%	1%		8	8	1	0							18
10-6	15%	42%		14%	2%	5%	5%	2%		2	8	5	0							15
9-7	12%	27%		2%			1%	1%		0	2	6	3	1						12
8-8	7%	16%									0	1	3	2	0	0				7
7-9	4%	8%										0	1	2	2	0				4
6-10	2%	4%											0	0	1	1	0			2
5-11	1%	2%													0	0	0	0		1
4-12	0%	1%													0	0	0	0		0
3-13	0%	0%															0	0		0
2-14	0%	0%																0		0
1-15	0%	0%																0		0
0-16
Total	100%			46%	33%	10%	2%	1%		46	23	13	8	5	3	2	1	0		100

Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

			Offense																						Defense
			Tot Off		First Field Goal Attempt										Second Chance				TOs		Freethrows				Tot Def		First Field Goal Attempt										Second Chance				TOs		Freethrows
					Shot Accuracy				Shot Selection				Pts Per Shot														Shot Accuracy				Shot Selection				Pts Per Shot
					2 C	2 L	3	Tot	2 C	2 L	3	Tot			Off Reb	PPP	Tot				Att	Perc	Tot				2 C	2 L	3	Tot	2 C	2 L	3	Tot			Off Reb	PPP	Tot				Att	Perc	Tot
Season Ratings			C-		C+	C	D+	C-	38%	62%	30%	D-	D+		C+	C	C+		C		D+	B	C-		C		C	D	D+	C-	44%	15%	41%	D-	D+		C	C-	C-		B		D	D	D-
			1.07		56%	35%	30%	-1				-1	0.92		32%	1.0	.33		17%		.27	76%	.21		1.09		55%	39%	34%	+1				+1	1.02		31%	1.1	.32		19%		.35	75%	.20
Nov 2	Murray St.	1.01	52%	37%	31%	-2	45%	37%	19%	-2	0.91	33%	1.0	.34	17%	.26	71%	.18	1.09	56%	41%	34%	+2	44%	12%	44%	+2	1.05	30%	1.3	.35	19%	.38	72%	.28
			13-25	8-20	3-10							12 rb		12 pt	13 to			14-20		13-22	3-6	8-22							10 rb		11 pt	15 to			20-28
Nov 13	Tennessee	0.89	49%	34%	24%	-7	32%	35%	33%	-2	0.79	26%	0.9	.23	18%	.26	68%	.18	1.20	61%	41%	37%	+6	50%	15%	36%	+2	1.12	46%	0.6	.49	20%	.40	69%	.27
			8-16	6-17	4-17							9 rb		8 pt	13 to			12-17		14-22	3-7	6-16							12 rb		13 pt	14 to			19-27
Nov 29	OK St.	0.96	49%	34%	29%	-5	37%	28%	35%	-1	0.86	28%	1.1	.31	18%	.23	68%	.15	1.15	58%	38%	38%	+5	55%	8%	37%	+3	1.12	32%	1.2	.33	17%	.40	74%	.30
			10-21	5-16	6-20							11 rb		12 pt	14 to			11-17		16-28	2-4	7-19							10 rb		10 pt	13 to			22-30
Dec 4	Grambling	1.06	60%	35%	32%	+2	42%	27%	31%	-1	0.99	36%	1.0	.36	20%	.30	74%	.23	0.94	50%	31%	32%	-3	45%	17%	38%	+1	0.93	27%	1.4	.27	24%	.36	71%	.26
			12-21	5-13	5-15							11 rb		11 pt	14 to			16-21		10-20	2-8	6-17							8 rb		8 pt	17 to			16-23
Dec 5	Florida A&M	1.07	59%	37%	36%	+4	42%	30%	28%	-1	1.02	33%	0.9	.31	18%	.30	78%	.23	0.96	54%	37%	33%	0	44%	18%	38%	+1	0.98	28%	1.1	.24	23%	.34	70%	.23
			13-21	6-15	5-14							10 rb		9 pt	13 to			16-21		11-20	3-8	6-18							8 rb		7 pt	17 to			15-22
Dec 11	W. Illinois	1.09	61%	33%	31%	+1	44%	27%	29%	0	0.99	35%	1.1	.39	15%	.28	69%	.19	0.93	47%	36%	31%	-5	42%	23%	35%	0	0.88	24%	1.6	.24	20%	.35	66%	.23
			14-23	5-14	5-15							11 rb		12 pt	11 to			14-20		9-20	4-11	5-17							8 rb		8 pt	14 to			15-22
Dec 19	Alabama A&M	1.10	60%	34%	35%	+3	41%	28%	31%	-1	1.01	33%	1.1	.35	16%	.30	72%	.22	0.96	49%	33%	34%	-3	43%	22%	35%	0	0.91	23%	1.6	.23	20%	.39	70%	.27
			12-20	5-14	5-15							10 rb		11 pt	11 to			15-21		10-20	3-10	5-16							7 rb		7 pt	14 to			17-25
Dec 31	S. Indiana	1.05	56%	33%	34%	0	48%	31%	21%	-1	0.95	35%	1.0	.33	16%	.29	74%	.21	0.99	47%	37%	32%	-4	42%	18%	41%	+1	0.91	30%	1.0	.26	19%	.36	68%	.25
			14-25	5-16	4-11							11 rb		10 pt	11 to			15-21		9-20	3-9	6-20							10 rb		9 pt	14 to			17-25
Jan 2	E. Illinois	1.06	61%	36%	29%	+1	39%	26%	35%	-1	0.97	36%	1.1	.38	19%	.29	80%	.23	0.95	50%	34%	33%	-2	43%	26%	31%	0	0.92	26%	1.6	.26	21%	.33	73%	.24
			12-19	5-13	5-17							11 rb		11 pt	13 to			16-20		10-20	4-12	5-14							8 rb		8 pt	14 to			15-21
Jan 7	W. Illinois	1.13	63%	36%	33%	+4	44%	27%	29%	0	1.03	36%	1.2	.42	15%	.28	71%	.20	0.89	45%	33%	29%	-7	42%	23%	35%	0	0.83	23%	1.6	.22	21%	.35	63%	.22
			15-23	5-14	5-15							11 rb		13 pt	10 to			14-20		9-20	4-11	5-17							8 rb		7 pt	14 to			14-22
Jan 9	SIUE	1.06	54%	38%	31%	-1	34%	33%	32%	-2	0.92	35%	1.0	.35	16%	.29	75%	.22	0.94	50%	33%	34%	-2	40%	23%	37%	0	0.92	26%	1.4	.26	22%	.31	64%	.20
			9-17	6-17	5-16							11 rb		11 pt	11 to			15-20		9-18	3-11	6-17							8 rb		8 pt	15 to			12-19
Jan 16	Morehead	1.12	57%	37%	35%	+2	39%	28%	33%	-1	1.00	38%	1.0	.37	15%	.29	73%	.21	0.96	51%	36%	30%	-3	45%	23%	32%	0	0.91	32%	1.2	.28	21%	.35	69%	.24
			11-20	5-14	6-17							12 rb		11 pt	10 to			15-20		10-20	4-10	4-15							10 rb		9 pt	15 to			16-23
Jan 21	Lindenwood	1.03	58%	33%	30%	-1	45%	30%	25%	-1	0.94	33%	1.0	.33	18%	.30	71%	.21	0.98	54%	29%	29%	-4	51%	17%	33%	+1	0.93	31%	1.1	.34	22%	.36	66%	.24
			14-24	5-16	4-14							11 rb		11 pt	14 to			16-23		14-25	2-8	5-16							10 rb		11 pt	17 to			17-25
Jan 23	SE MO St.	1.01	53%	37%	28%	-2	43%	31%	26%	-1	0.91	29%	1.1	.31	18%	.37	74%	.28	0.99	53%	35%	31%	-2	48%	15%	37%	+1	0.95	26%	1.3	.32	20%	.37	67%	.25
			11-21	6-15	4-13							9 rb		10 pt	13 to			20-26		12-23	3-7	6-18							8 rb		10 pt	15 to			17-25
Jan 28	S. Indiana	1.10	58%	35%	36%	+2	48%	31%	21%	-1	1.00	36%	1.0	.35	15%	.29	76%	.22	0.95	45%	34%	31%	-6	42%	18%	41%	+1	0.87	29%	1.1	.24	20%	.36	66%	.24
			14-25	6-16	4-11							11 rb		11 pt	11 to			16-21		9-20	3-8	6-20							10 rb		8 pt	14 to			16-24
Jan 30	TN Martin	1.06	65%	35%	31%	+2	31%	33%	36%	-2	0.97	36%	1.0	.35	19%	.29	75%	.22	0.93	51%	34%	29%	-4	37%	13%	50%	+1	0.91	32%	1.1	.27	25%	.35	63%	.22
			10-15	6-16	5-17							10 rb		10 pt	13 to			14-19		8-16	2-6	6-22							10 rb		8 pt	17 to			13-21
Feb 4	Lindenwood	1.07	59%	34%	32%	+1	45%	30%	25%	-1	0.98	34%	1.0	.36	17%	.30	73%	.22	0.94	52%	26%	27%	-6	51%	17%	33%	+1	0.88	30%	1.2	.32	22%	.36	65%	.23
			14-24	6-16	4-14							11 rb		12 pt	13 to			17-23		13-25	2-8	4-16							10 rb		11 pt	17 to			16-25
Feb 11	E. Illinois	1.11	64%	39%	31%	+3	39%	26%	35%	-1	1.02	37%	1.1	.41	18%	.29	82%	.24	0.91	48%	32%	31%	-5	43%	26%	31%	0	0.87	25%	1.6	.24	21%	.33	71%	.23
			12-19	5-13	5-17							11 rb		12 pt	13 to			16-20		10-20	4-12	4-14							8 rb		7 pt	15 to			15-20
Feb 17	SIUE	1.02	52%	36%	29%	-3	34%	33%	32%	-2	0.87	34%	1.0	.32	16%	.29	73%	.21	0.99	52%	35%	36%	0	40%	23%	37%	0	0.97	27%	1.3	.29	21%	.31	67%	.20
			9-17	6-16	5-16							11 rb		10 pt	11 to			14-20		9-18	4-11	6-17							8 rb		8 pt	14 to			13-19
Feb 25	TN Martin	1.02	63%	33%	30%	0	31%	33%	36%	-2	0.93	35%	0.9	.32	20%	.29	73%	.21	0.97	53%	39%	30%	-2	37%	13%	50%	+1	0.95	33%	1.0	.29	24%	.35	65%	.22
			9-15	5-16	5-17							11 rb		10 pt	13 to			14-19		8-16	2-6	7-22							10 rb		9 pt	17 to			14-21
				Shot Accuracy				Shot Selection				PPS	2nd Chance			TOs	Freethrows				Shot Accuracy				Shot Selection				PPS	2nd Chance			TOs	Freethrows
Feb 27	SE MO St.	1.05	55%	39%	30%	0	43%	31%	26%	-1	0.95	30%	1.1	.33	17%	.37	76%	.28	0.95	51%	31%	29%	-5	48%	15%	37%	+1	0.91	25%	1.4	.29	20%	.37	65%	.24
			12-21	6-16	4-13							9 rb		10 pt	13 to			20-26		12-23	2-7	5-18							8 rb		10 pt	15 to			16-25