Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Tennessee St. 36%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.3 177 C- -1 198 C +0 161 0 1 0 1
Southeast Missouri St. 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 270 D -5 314 C- -1 189 0 1 0 1
SIU Edwardsville 14%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.2 278 D -5 324 C- -1 197 0 1 0 1
Tennessee Martin 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.6 298 D- -6 341 C- -1 204 0 1 0 1
Lindenwood 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.1 308 D- -6 337 D+ -2 249 0 1 0 1
Southern Indiana 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.2 325 D -5 329 D -4 309 0 1 0 1
Morehead St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.5 328 D+ -4 286 D- -6 351 0 1 0 1
Eastern Illinois 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -12.2 354 F+ -8 357 D -4 326 0 1 0 1
Western Illinois 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -15.3 363 F -9 363 F+ -6 356 0 1 0 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Tennessee St. 2 46% 33% 10% 3% 46 23 13 8 5 3 2 1 0
Southeast Missouri St. 3 22% 14% 6% 2% 22 19 17 13 10 8 6 4 2
SIU Edwardsville 4 20% 12% 6% 2% 20 18 16 13 11 9 6 4 2
Tennessee Martin 4 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 15 15 14 13 11 8 6 4
Lindenwood 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 13 14 14 13 12 10 8 6
Southern Indiana 5 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 10 12 13 14 13 12 10 7
Eastern Illinois 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 9 11 12 14 16 15 14
Morehead St. 6 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 6 8 10 13 15 16 16 13
Western Illinois 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 9 12 17 23 28

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Tennessee St. 11 - 4 13 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 15 18 17 13 7 2
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 16 15 12 9 6 3 1 0
SIU Edwardsville 9 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 15 11 8 5 2 1 0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 8 11 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 0 0
Lindenwood 8 - 8 11 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 16 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Southern Indiana 7 - 9 11 - 16 0 0 2 4 7 11 14 15 15 13 9 6 3 1 1 0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 10 9 - 19 0 1 4 7 11 15 16 15 12 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
Morehead St. 6 - 8 9 - 16 0 1 4 7 12 15 17 16 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
Western Illinois 5 - 10 7 - 19 1 3 7 14 18 18 15 12 7 4 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Tennessee St. 36% 36% 0% 16 Negligible 1 5 16 14 64
Southeast Missouri St. 15% 15% 0% Negligible 3 12 85
SIU Edwardsville 14% 14% 0% Negligible 2 12 86
Tennessee Martin 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 10 89
Lindenwood 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 7 92
Southern Indiana 7% 7% 0% Negligible 6 93
Morehead St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 4 95
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Western Illinois 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 57% 0.6 43 57 0
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 36% 26% 24% 2%
Southeast Missouri St. 15% 14% 8%
SIU Edwardsville 14% 14% 8%
Tennessee Martin 11% 11% 6%
Lindenwood 8% 8% 4%
Southern Indiana 7% 6% 3%
Morehead St. 5% 5% 2%
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 1%
Western Illinois 1% 1% 1%