Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-10
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Washington 100.0%   9   23 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +15.9      +8.0 12 +7.9 14 80.4 13 +11.3 39 +10.0 3
25 Arizona 98.9%   6   27 - 7 14 - 4 27 - 7 14 - 4 +12.8      +6.5 23 +6.3 27 67.6 179 +14.9 17 +15.3 1
45 USC 39.6%   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +10.2      +5.1 48 +5.2 43 61.4 312 +8.5 63 +9.2 5
48 Washington St. 23.0%   19 - 12 9 - 9 19 - 12 9 - 9 +10.0      +5.0 49 +5.0 47 71.9 74 +9.1 55 +7.8 6
50 UCLA 86.4%   10   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +9.7      +4.8 51 +4.9 50 67.0 202 +11.4 37 +13.9 2
65 California 2.2%   17 - 14 10 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 8 +8.1      +4.1 65 +4.0 65 71.8 77 +8.7 61 +9.5 4
88 Oregon 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 11 15 - 17 7 - 11 +5.0      +2.5 90 +2.5 87 70.2 117 +4.7 100 +5.5 8
94 Stanford 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 11 15 - 16 7 - 11 +4.7      +2.3 95 +2.4 93 65.3 243 +4.0 107 +5.6 7
117 Arizona St. 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 14 12 - 19 4 - 14 +3.0      +1.5 118 +1.5 116 62.1 305 +3.2 122 +0.8 10
154 Oregon St. 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 13 11 - 20 5 - 13 +0.9      +0.4 155 +0.5 153 75.0 39 -0.5 172 +3.0 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Washington 3.0 100.0
Arizona 1.0 100.0
USC 4.0 100.0
Washington St. 6.0 100.0
UCLA 2.0 100.0
California 4.0 100.0
Oregon 7.0 100.0
Stanford 7.0 100.0
Arizona St. 10.0 100.0
Oregon St. 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Washington 11 - 7 100.0
Arizona 14 - 4 100.0
USC 10 - 8 100.0
Washington St. 9 - 9 100.0
UCLA 13 - 5 100.0
California 10 - 8 100.0
Oregon 7 - 11 100.0
Stanford 7 - 11 100.0
Arizona St. 4 - 14 100.0
Oregon St. 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Washington
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
USC
Washington St.
UCLA
California
Oregon
Stanford
Arizona St.
Oregon St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Washington 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.4 3.7 14.8 32.7 32.9 14.1 1.4 0.0
Arizona 98.9% 0.0% 98.9% 6   0.0 0.0 1.1 22.4 42.1 23.4 7.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 98.9%
USC 39.6% 0.0% 39.6% 0.0 0.5 4.3 15.4 19.3 0.1 60.5 39.6%
Washington St. 23.0% 0.0% 23.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 19.8 1.2 77.0 23.0%
UCLA 86.4% 0.0% 86.4% 10   0.3 1.5 8.2 21.6 30.0 19.6 5.3 0.0 13.6 86.4%
California 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6 97.8 2.2%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Washington 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 68.2% 28.3% 16.2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.4%
Arizona 98.9% 0.0% 98.9% 59.3% 23.5% 9.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
USC 39.6% 10.9% 34.2% 13.7% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington St. 23.0% 18.4% 14.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 86.4% 2.4% 85.2% 35.2% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
California 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.5 0.1 5.7 45.9 41.0 7.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.3 0.1 7.5 54.5 34.3 3.6 0.0
2nd Round 94.0% 1.8 6.0 29.5 43.5 18.5 2.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 53.6% 0.7 46.4 40.9 11.5 1.1 0.0
Elite Eight 27.4% 0.3 72.6 25.0 2.3 0.1
Final Four 11.8% 0.1 88.2 11.5 0.3 0.0
Final Game 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Champion 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8