Pre-tourney Rankings
Horizon
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
88 Cleveland St. 0.1%   21 - 10 12 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 6 +5.5      +1.5 131 +4.0 67 64.4 255 +5.5 92 +3.3 2
119 Detroit Mercy 100.0%   16   20 - 13 11 - 7 20 - 13 11 - 7 +3.4      +4.0 69 -0.6 185 71.1 89 +3.0 133 +2.1 5
129 Butler 0.0%   19 - 14 11 - 7 19 - 14 11 - 7 +2.6      -2.7 245 +5.2 34 65.2 232 +3.2 128 +2.3 4
144 Valparaiso 0.0%   20 - 11 14 - 4 20 - 11 14 - 4 +1.6      +1.7 127 -0.1 172 65.9 212 +4.0 111 +7.2 1
154 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0%   18 - 13 11 - 7 18 - 13 11 - 7 +1.1      -1.5 219 +2.6 99 66.1 210 +2.9 134 +2.4 3
169 Youngstown St. 0.0%   14 - 15 10 - 8 14 - 15 10 - 8 -0.2      +2.1 117 -2.3 244 66.2 206 -0.5 175 +1.2 7
176 Green Bay 0.0%   13 - 15 10 - 8 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.6      -1.1 206 +0.5 154 70.7 95 +0.8 161 +1.2 6
214 Wright St. 0.0%   12 - 19 7 - 11 12 - 19 7 - 11 -2.8      -5.3 293 +2.5 100 61.8 294 -2.3 202 -2.7 8
275 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   6 - 23 1 - 17 6 - 23 1 - 17 -6.6      -4.6 284 -2.0 229 56.9 334 -9.2 297 -16.0 10
280 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   7 - 21 3 - 15 7 - 21 3 - 15 -6.9      -3.5 270 -3.4 272 66.4 196 -6.6 270 -9.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Cleveland St. 2.0 100.0
Detroit Mercy 3.0 100.0
Butler 3.0 100.0
Valparaiso 1.0 100.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.0 100.0
Youngstown St. 6.0 100.0
Green Bay 6.0 100.0
Wright St. 8.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 10.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Cleveland St. 12 - 6 100.0
Detroit Mercy 11 - 7 100.0
Butler 11 - 7 100.0
Valparaiso 14 - 4 100.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 7 100.0
Youngstown St. 10 - 8 100.0
Green Bay 10 - 8 100.0
Wright St. 7 - 11 100.0
Loyola Chicago 1 - 17 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Cleveland St.
Detroit Mercy
Butler
Valparaiso 100.0% 100.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Youngstown St.
Green Bay
Wright St.
Loyola Chicago
Illinois-Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Cleveland St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 16   0.2 21.1 78.7
Butler 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wright St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Cleveland St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 100.0% 34.8% 86.2% 5.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 86.2% 0.9 13.8 86.1 0.0
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0