Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 California 89.2%   11   24 - 9 13 - 5 24 - 9 13 - 5 +10.7      +5.8 39 +4.9 47 68.3 148 +9.7 42 +9.9 3
47 Arizona 5.6%   23 - 11 12 - 6 23 - 11 12 - 6 +8.7      +3.6 80 +5.1 37 65.5 220 +7.9 66 +7.3 5
59 UCLA 0.0%   18 - 14 11 - 7 18 - 14 11 - 7 +7.9      +3.7 76 +4.2 64 65.6 219 +5.1 98 +7.6 4
64 Stanford 1.2%   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +7.4      +1.6 130 +5.8 25 69.4 121 +6.7 77 +5.7 7
66 Oregon 23.1%   22 - 9 13 - 5 22 - 9 13 - 5 +7.3      +6.0 36 +1.3 134 70.8 92 +8.9 54 +10.5 2
67 Washington 11.1%   21 - 10 14 - 4 21 - 10 14 - 4 +7.2      +4.0 68 +3.2 81 77.5 21 +8.4 59 +11.7 1
86 Colorado 100.0%   12   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +5.7      +1.1 139 +4.6 52 66.8 189 +8.0 64 +7.3 6
92 Oregon St. 0.0%   18 - 14 7 - 11 18 - 14 7 - 11 +5.4      +5.6 44 -0.2 176 78.8 13 +4.0 110 +1.5 9
136 Washington St. 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 11 14 - 16 7 - 11 +2.3      +3.7 77 -1.4 215 64.6 252 +1.3 151 +1.5 8
219 USC 0.0%   6 - 26 1 - 17 6 - 26 1 - 17 -3.1      -8.1 322 +5.0 42 57.9 330 -6.2 267 -13.6 12
225 Arizona St. 0.0%   10 - 21 6 - 12 10 - 21 6 - 12 -3.4      -1.2 208 -2.2 240 62.1 283 -3.1 214 -0.6 10
296 Utah 0.0%   5 - 25 3 - 15 5 - 25 3 - 15 -8.4      -5.7 297 -2.6 257 59.2 323 -7.2 281 -4.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
California 2.0 100.0
Arizona 4.0 100.0
UCLA 5.0 100.0
Stanford 7.0 100.0
Oregon 2.0 100.0
Washington 1.0 100.0
Colorado 5.0 100.0
Oregon St. 8.0 100.0
Washington St. 8.0 100.0
USC 12.0 100.0
Arizona St. 10.0 100.0
Utah 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
California 13 - 5 100.0
Arizona 12 - 6 100.0
UCLA 11 - 7 100.0
Stanford 10 - 8 100.0
Oregon 13 - 5 100.0
Washington 14 - 4 100.0
Colorado 11 - 7 100.0
Oregon St. 7 - 11 100.0
Washington St. 7 - 11 100.0
USC 1 - 17 100.0
Arizona St. 6 - 12 100.0
Utah 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
California
Arizona
UCLA
Stanford
Oregon
Washington 100.0% 100.0
Colorado
Oregon St.
Washington St.
USC
Arizona St.
Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
California 89.2% 0.0% 89.2% 11   0.0 0.1 2.4 13.6 35.1 32.2 5.8 0.1 10.8 89.2%
Arizona 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.1 1.7 3.2 0.7 94.4 5.6%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4 0.7 0.1 98.8 1.2%
Oregon 23.1% 0.0% 23.1% 0.0 0.2 1.7 9.4 10.5 1.2 77.0 23.1%
Washington 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.4 0.9 0.0 89.0 11.1%
Colorado 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 1.3 16.0 64.3 18.2 0.3
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
California 89.2% 6.0% 86.9% 41.0% 13.2% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Arizona 5.6% 5.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UCLA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 23.1% 21.4% 11.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 11.1% 10.6% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.1% 6.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 6.2 60.9 29.5 3.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 10.0 72.7 16.8 0.5
2nd Round 57.9% 0.7 42.1 45.7 11.7 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 19.8% 0.2 80.2 18.7 1.1 0.0
Elite Eight 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.8 0.0
Final Four 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1