Pre-tourney Rankings
California
Pac-12
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#34
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#42
Pace68.3#148
Improvement-4.4#316

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
Improvement-1.4#240

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#47
Improvement-3.0#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% n/a n/a
First Round86.9% n/a n/a
Second Round41.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen13.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.7% n/a n/a
Final Four1.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.4% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 241   UC Irvine W 77-56 95%     1 - 0 +13.0 +3.7 +10.0
  Nov 13, 2011 167   George Washington W 81-54 90%     2 - 0 +23.5 +8.7 +15.4
  Nov 15, 2011 212   Austin Peay W 72-55 93%     3 - 0 +11.0 -6.4 +16.9
  Nov 21, 2011 105   Georgia W 70-46 73%     4 - 0 +28.5 +5.8 +24.5
  Nov 22, 2011 6   Missouri L 53-92 23%     4 - 1 -20.7 -17.3 -3.2
  Nov 26, 2011 79   Denver W 80-59 77%     5 - 1 +24.0 +14.0 +11.9
  Nov 28, 2011 209   McNeese St. W 73-57 93%     6 - 1 +10.2 -1.3 +12.0
  Dec 04, 2011 46   @ San Diego St. L 63-64 44%     6 - 2 +11.1 +2.4 +8.6
  Dec 07, 2011 263   San Jose St. W 81-36 96%     7 - 2 +35.6 +1.2 +34.0
  Dec 11, 2011 333   Jackson St. W 73-46 99%     8 - 2 +9.2 +2.9 +9.6
  Dec 16, 2011 123   Weber St. W 77-57 85%     9 - 2 +19.7 +9.3 +12.7
  Dec 19, 2011 110   UC Santa Barbara W 70-50 83%     10 - 2 +20.7 +7.8 +16.6
  Dec 23, 2011 26   @ UNLV L 68-85 34%     10 - 3 -2.0 -1.6 +0.9
  Dec 29, 2011 219   USC W 53-49 94%     11 - 3 1 - 0 -2.5 -8.6 +6.6
  Dec 31, 2011 59   UCLA W 85-69 72%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +20.5 +23.1 -1.0
  Jan 05, 2012 92   @ Oregon St. L 85-92 57%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +1.8 +10.3 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2012 66   @ Oregon W 77-60 50%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +27.7 +11.1 +17.5
  Jan 12, 2012 86   Colorado W 57-50 79%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +9.3 -10.7 +20.3
  Jan 14, 2012 296   Utah W 81-45 97%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +24.2 +11.9 +15.9
  Jan 19, 2012 67   @ Washington W 69-66 50%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +13.6 +0.8 +12.8
  Jan 21, 2012 136   @ Washington St. L 75-77 68%     16 - 5 6 - 2 +3.7 +2.5 +1.2
  Jan 29, 2012 64   Stanford W 69-59 74%     17 - 5 7 - 2 +14.0 -0.9 +14.8
  Feb 02, 2012 47   Arizona L 74-78 70%     17 - 6 7 - 3 +1.3 +3.4 -2.0
  Feb 04, 2012 225   Arizona St. W 68-47 94%     18 - 6 8 - 3 +14.2 -3.0 +19.0
  Feb 09, 2012 219   @ USC W 75-49 84%     19 - 6 9 - 3 +26.3 +13.6 +14.3
  Feb 11, 2012 59   @ UCLA W 73-63 48%     20 - 6 10 - 3 +21.3 +7.4 +14.1
  Feb 16, 2012 66   Oregon W 86-83 74%     21 - 6 11 - 3 +6.9 +6.2 +0.5
  Feb 18, 2012 92   Oregon St. W 77-63 79%     22 - 6 12 - 3 +16.0 +6.0 +10.7
  Feb 23, 2012 296   @ Utah W 60-46 92%     23 - 6 13 - 3 +9.1 -9.5 +19.5
  Feb 26, 2012 86   @ Colorado L 57-70 56%     23 - 7 13 - 4 -3.9 -3.0 -2.3
  Mar 04, 2012 64   @ Stanford L 70-75 49%     23 - 8 13 - 5 +5.8 +4.2 +1.6
  Mar 08, 2012 64   Stanford W 77-71 62%     24 - 8 +13.4 +5.1 +7.9
  Mar 09, 2012 86   Colorado L 59-70 68%     24 - 9 -5.3 -3.0 -3.5
Projected Record 24.0 - 9.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 89.2% 89.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 2.4 13.6 35.1 32.2 5.8 0.1 10.8 89.2%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.2% 0.0% 89.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 2.4 13.6 35.1 32.2 5.8 0.1 10.8 89.2%