Pre-tourney Rankings
Horizon
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Valparaiso 15.0%   24 - 6 16 - 2 24 - 6 16 - 2 +9.8      +1.5 134 +8.3 15 67.5 241 +9.4 59 +10.9 1
88 Oakland 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 5 21 - 11 13 - 5 +6.4      +8.4 23 -2.0 225 81.8 11 +4.6 104 +4.8 3
114 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0%   18 - 13 10 - 8 18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.4      +5.1 58 -1.6 212 66.0 279 +1.3 146 +0.1 5
122 Green Bay 100.0%   15   21 - 12 11 - 7 21 - 12 11 - 7 +2.9      +2.3 115 +0.6 160 89.7 5 +4.1 113 +1.8 4
145 Wright St. 0.0%   20 - 13 13 - 5 20 - 13 13 - 5 +1.2      -2.1 216 +3.3 89 64.2 309 +2.0 137 +5.7 2
179 Detroit Mercy 0.0%   14 - 15 9 - 9 14 - 15 9 - 9 -0.9      +3.7 87 -4.6 293 81.6 12 -0.7 171 -1.1 6
255 Northern Kentucky 0.0%   7 - 21 5 - 13 7 - 21 5 - 13 -5.7      -2.2 222 -3.5 271 67.4 245 -8.7 289 -7.6 8
281 Cleveland St. 0.0%   7 - 23 4 - 14 7 - 23 4 - 14 -7.9      -9.5 340 +1.7 123 62.6 333 -7.1 273 -9.0 9
289 Youngstown St. 0.0%   9 - 20 6 - 12 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8.3      -1.6 209 -6.7 325 79.3 23 -6.1 258 -5.5 7
331 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   3 - 25 3 - 15 3 - 25 3 - 15 -12.5      -11.0 344 -1.5 208 77.5 43 -13.4 332 -10.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Valparaiso 1.0 100.0
Oakland 2.0 100.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.0 100.0
Green Bay 4.0 100.0
Wright St. 2.0 100.0
Detroit Mercy 6.0 100.0
Northern Kentucky 8.0 100.0
Cleveland St. 9.0 100.0
Youngstown St. 7.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Valparaiso 16 - 2 100.0
Oakland 13 - 5 100.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10 - 8 100.0
Green Bay 11 - 7 100.0
Wright St. 13 - 5 100.0
Detroit Mercy 9 - 9 100.0
Northern Kentucky 5 - 13 100.0
Cleveland St. 4 - 14 100.0
Youngstown St. 6 - 12 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Valparaiso 100.0% 100.0
Oakland
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Green Bay
Wright St.
Detroit Mercy
Northern Kentucky
Cleveland St.
Youngstown St.
Illinois-Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Valparaiso 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.6 2.7 0.0 85.1 15.0%
Oakland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Green Bay 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   0.2 24.3 75.5 0.0
Wright St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Valparaiso 15.0% 14.1% 7.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 7.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 85.1 15.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.3 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 1.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0