Pre-tourney Rankings
Valparaiso
Horizon
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#52
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#59
Pace67.5#241
Improvement-2.8#292

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#134
First Shot-1.3#219
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#18
Layup/Dunks-0.8#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#60
Freethrows-0.8#238
Improvement+1.9#92

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#15
First Shot+6.4#24
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#22
Layups/Dunks+3.3#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#29
Freethrows-0.5#200
Improvement-4.7#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.1% n/a n/a
First Round7.8% n/a n/a
Second Round2.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 132   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-64 84%     1 - 0 +13.4 -1.9 +14.7
  Nov 15, 2015 101   Iona W 83-58 76%     2 - 0 +27.4 -0.4 +24.7
  Nov 17, 2015 90   @ Rhode Island W 58-55 52%     3 - 0 +12.2 -9.7 +21.8
  Nov 22, 2015 10   @ Oregon L 67-73 17%     3 - 1 +13.9 +1.2 +12.8
  Nov 24, 2015 57   @ Oregon St. W 63-57 40%     4 - 1 +18.3 -1.7 +20.2
  Nov 28, 2015 160   @ Ball St. L 66-69 74%     4 - 2 +0.1 +1.3 -1.4
  Dec 03, 2015 138   Belmont W 61-57 84%     5 - 2 +3.0 -16.4 +19.4
  Dec 09, 2015 165   @ Indiana St. W 69-63 76%     6 - 2 +8.5 +0.2 +8.2
  Dec 11, 2015 348   @ Chicago St. W 71-53 97%     7 - 2 +4.7 -4.5 +9.9
  Dec 19, 2015 221   Missouri St. W 74-45 93%     8 - 2 +22.5 -0.3 +22.8
  Dec 28, 2015 138   @ Belmont L 81-85 69%     8 - 3 +0.8 -1.8 +3.0
  Jan 02, 2016 331   Illinois-Chicago W 75-47 98%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +12.5 -0.5 +13.1
  Jan 08, 2016 88   @ Oakland W 84-67 52%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +26.3 +6.1 +19.3
  Jan 10, 2016 179   @ Detroit Mercy W 92-74 77%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +20.0 +10.6 +8.4
  Jan 14, 2016 114   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-56 81%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +12.5 -0.5 +14.4
  Jan 16, 2016 122   Green Bay W 85-70 82%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +15.0 +1.0 +12.1
  Jan 18, 2016 289   @ Youngstown St. W 96-65 91%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +25.7 +16.6 +8.6
  Jan 22, 2016 145   @ Wright St. L 62-73 71%     14 - 4 6 - 1 -6.9 -5.6 -1.3
  Jan 24, 2016 255   @ Northern Kentucky W 71-46 88%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +22.2 +2.5 +21.9
  Jan 28, 2016 281   Cleveland St. W 77-52 96%     16 - 4 8 - 1 +14.2 +8.1 +7.3
  Jan 30, 2016 289   Youngstown St. W 97-68 96%     17 - 4 9 - 1 +17.8 +9.6 +6.3
  Feb 06, 2016 331   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-55 95%     18 - 4 10 - 1 +8.4 +0.0 +8.3
  Feb 11, 2016 255   Northern Kentucky W 64-52 95%     19 - 4 11 - 1 +3.3 -8.1 +12.5
  Feb 13, 2016 145   Wright St. L 59-61 86%     19 - 5 11 - 2 -3.7 -6.0 +2.1
  Feb 16, 2016 281   Cleveland St. W 66-43 94%     20 - 5 12 - 2 +15.1 -0.8 +17.4
  Feb 19, 2016 88   Oakland W 86-84 73%     21 - 5 13 - 2 +5.5 +1.9 +3.3
  Feb 21, 2016 179   Detroit Mercy W 90-74 89%     22 - 5 14 - 2 +12.2 +11.5 +0.8
  Feb 26, 2016 114   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-76 OT 73%     23 - 5 15 - 2 +7.4 -1.4 +8.5
  Feb 28, 2016 122   @ Green Bay W 70-68 65%     24 - 5 16 - 2 +7.8 -1.6 +9.3
  Mar 07, 2016 122   Green Bay L 92-99 OT 75%     24 - 6 -4.1 +2.8 -5.6
Projected Record 24.0 - 6.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.6 2.7 0.0 85.1 15.0%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.6 2.7 0.0 85.1 15.0%