Pre-tourney Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#13
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#13
Pace59.4#333
Improvement+5.7#6

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#13
First Shot+8.3#18
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#19
Layup/Dunks+1.6#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#63
Freethrows+1.4#83
Improvement+2.3#53

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#37
First Shot+5.8#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#105
Layups/Dunks+7.0#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#343
Freethrows+4.1#8
Improvement+3.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 1.8% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 7.1% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 62.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 98.4% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round85.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen49.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight22.9% n/a n/a
Final Four10.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game4.9% n/a n/a
National Champion2.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 4 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 180   Gardner-Webb W 72-44 96%     1 - 0 +24.8 +4.1 +23.1
  Nov 13, 2016 163   Eastern Michigan W 91-64 96%     2 - 0 +24.6 +20.0 +5.7
  Nov 17, 2016 73   Pittsburgh W 76-67 83%     3 - 0 +16.7 +12.0 +5.6
  Nov 18, 2016 21   Michigan L 54-76 55%     3 - 1 -5.6 -4.7 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2016 328   UC Santa Barbara W 84-57 99%     4 - 1 +12.4 +14.3 +0.4
  Nov 25, 2016 58   @ USC L 73-78 71%     4 - 2 +6.8 +5.2 +1.6
  Nov 30, 2016 96   @ Boise St. L 62-71 84%     4 - 3 -1.8 -3.9 +1.5
  Dec 02, 2016 122   Cal St. Bakersfield W 49-43 94%     5 - 3 +5.8 -8.9 +15.9
  Dec 04, 2016 341   Delaware St. W 74-60 99.6%    6 - 3 -3.8 -1.6 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2016 37   TCU W 74-59 79%     7 - 3 +24.1 +21.6 +5.9
  Dec 14, 2016 319   McNeese St. W 92-56 99%     8 - 3 +22.9 +19.5 +5.8
  Dec 19, 2016 95   Stanford W 72-49 92%     9 - 3 +25.2 +13.8 +15.5
  Dec 20, 2016 134   Albany W 71-53 95%     10 - 3 +17.0 +15.1 +6.5
  Dec 27, 2016 92   @ Memphis W 58-54 83%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +11.4 +2.1 +10.2
  Dec 31, 2016 159   @ East Carolina W 75-44 91%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +34.0 +27.5 +14.4
  Jan 04, 2017 107   Temple W 79-65 93%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +15.0 +12.6 +3.5
  Jan 07, 2017 279   South Florida W 84-65 99%     14 - 3 4 - 0 +9.1 +22.0 -9.8
  Jan 12, 2017 24   @ Cincinnati L 64-66 49%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +16.0 +15.9 -0.3
  Jan 15, 2017 223   @ Tulane W 80-64 95%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +14.7 +10.9 +4.7
  Jan 19, 2017 84   Connecticut W 69-49 91%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +23.3 +9.5 +16.6
  Jan 21, 2017 53   Houston W 85-64 83%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +28.5 +24.1 +6.7
  Jan 25, 2017 68   @ Central Florida W 65-60 76%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +15.5 +8.5 +7.6
  Feb 01, 2017 159   East Carolina W 86-46 96%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +37.9 +24.5 +17.0
  Feb 04, 2017 126   @ Tulsa W 76-53 89%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +27.5 +12.0 +17.2
  Feb 09, 2017 107   @ Temple W 66-50 86%     21 - 4 11 - 1 +22.0 -1.3 +24.0
  Feb 12, 2017 24   Cincinnati W 60-51 68%     22 - 4 12 - 1 +22.0 +15.2 +9.8
  Feb 15, 2017 223   Tulane W 80-75 98%     23 - 4 13 - 1 -1.4 +5.1 -6.4
  Feb 18, 2017 53   @ Houston W 76-66 69%     24 - 4 14 - 1 +22.6 +20.6 +3.5
  Feb 25, 2017 84   @ Connecticut W 69-61 81%     25 - 4 15 - 1 +16.3 +17.3 +0.8
  Mar 02, 2017 126   Tulsa W 93-70 95%     26 - 4 16 - 1 +22.4 +29.0 -4.5
  Mar 04, 2017 92   Memphis W 103-62 92%     27 - 4 17 - 1 +43.3 +33.4 +10.7
  Mar 10, 2017 159   East Carolina W 81-77 94%     28 - 4 +4.4 +16.8 -12.2
  Mar 11, 2017 68   Central Florida W 70-59 82%     29 - 4 +19.0 +20.0 +1.3
  Mar 12, 2017 24   Cincinnati W 71-56 59%     30 - 4 +30.5 +21.9 +11.7
Projected Record 30.0 - 4.0 17.0 - 1.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.2 1.8 5.3 18.5 36.5 25.3 11.0 1.6 0.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4.2 1.8 5.3 18.5 36.5 25.3 11.0 1.6 0.0