Pre-tourney Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#72
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#75
Pace69.0#166
Improvement-3.7#315

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#92
First Shot+4.2#59
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#248
Layup/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#10
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement-1.7#266

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#78
First Shot+4.0#66
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#204
Layups/Dunks+2.2#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#106
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-2.0#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% n/a n/a
First Round0.1% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.0 - 1.01.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 4.01.0 - 5.0
Quad 22.0 - 1.03.0 - 6.0
Quad 36.0 - 2.09.0 - 8.0
Quad 413.0 - 1.022.0 - 9.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 47   @ TCU L 69-77 27%     0 - 1 +5.2 -0.1 +5.8
  Nov 22, 2018 71   Northwestern W 78-59 50%     1 - 1 +26.0 +13.6 +12.6
  Nov 23, 2018 66   Miami (FL) L 76-78 47%     1 - 2 +5.7 +2.3 +3.5
  Nov 25, 2018 185   Hawaii W 79-64 79%     2 - 2 +13.5 +10.9 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2018 198   Pacific W 81-78 OT 87%     3 - 2 -2.1 +0.6 -2.9
  Dec 01, 2018 332   Cal Poly W 76-67 97%     4 - 2 -5.7 +2.3 -7.1
  Dec 05, 2018 212   Weber St. W 71-52 88%     5 - 2 +13.5 -8.8 +21.1
  Dec 08, 2018 217   Long Beach St. W 92-71 88%     6 - 2 +15.2 +9.1 +4.4
  Dec 19, 2018 231   California W 95-73 90%     7 - 2 +15.2 +11.0 +2.7
  Dec 22, 2018 297   Tennessee Martin W 93-53 94%     8 - 2 +29.2 +8.5 +19.7
  Dec 29, 2018 101   Utah Valley L 60-64 69%     8 - 3 -2.0 -12.4 +10.4
  Jan 02, 2019 342   @ San Jose St. W 73-53 95%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +7.9 -0.7 +9.8
  Jan 05, 2019 163   Colorado St. W 78-67 83%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +7.9 -1.8 +9.3
  Jan 09, 2019 37   @ Utah St. W 78-77 25%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +14.9 +13.7 +1.2
  Jan 12, 2019 26   Nevada L 64-74 36%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +0.7 +1.7 -1.8
  Jan 19, 2019 131   @ Boise St. W 63-53 56%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +15.4 -1.3 +17.8
  Jan 22, 2019 104   San Diego St. W 66-62 69%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +5.9 -0.8 +6.8
  Jan 26, 2019 163   @ Colorado St. L 65-74 67%     13 - 5 5 - 2 -6.5 -11.5 +5.3
  Jan 30, 2019 308   @ Wyoming W 75-62 89%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +6.7 +10.8 -2.3
  Feb 02, 2019 169   New Mexico W 82-70 84%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +8.6 -2.3 +9.6
  Feb 05, 2019 37   Utah St. L 81-82 45%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +7.3 +20.1 -12.9
  Feb 09, 2019 156   @ UNLV W 83-65 64%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +21.3 +18.0 +4.9
  Feb 13, 2019 131   Boise St. W 65-63 75%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +1.9 -3.1 +5.1
  Feb 16, 2019 169   @ New Mexico W 81-73 68%     18 - 6 10 - 3 +10.2 +7.7 +2.4
  Feb 20, 2019 232   Air Force L 61-64 90%     18 - 7 10 - 4 -9.8 -17.5 +7.8
  Feb 23, 2019 26   @ Nevada L 68-74 19%     18 - 8 10 - 5 +10.2 +4.8 +5.3
  Feb 27, 2019 308   Wyoming W 71-60 95%     19 - 8 11 - 5 -0.9 -1.0 +1.0
  Mar 06, 2019 104   @ San Diego St. W 76-74 48%     20 - 8 12 - 5 +9.4 +4.1 +5.2
  Mar 09, 2019 342   San Jose St. W 121-81 98%     21 - 8 13 - 5 +22.4 +29.9 -11.0
  Mar 14, 2019 232   Air Force W 76-50 85%     22 - 8 +21.9 +5.9 +17.6
  Mar 15, 2019 37   Utah St. L 60-85 35%     22 - 9 -13.9 -5.0 -10.1
Projected Record 22.0 - 9.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 99.7 0.3%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 99.7 0.3%