Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
126 Northern Colorado 30.4%   15   10 - 6 5 - 2 19 - 10 14 - 6 +2.5      +0.9 153 +1.6 129 65.2 286 +0.9 156 0.0 3
154 Southern Utah 18.7%   9 - 7 4 - 3 17 - 12 12 - 8 +0.5      -2.4 246 +2.9 92 70.4 144 +0.3 165 -2.5 6
175 Eastern Washington 14.4%   10 - 6 5 - 2 18 - 11 13 - 7 -0.7      +0.7 160 -1.4 211 80.9 16 +2.4 131 +0.5 2
184 Montana 13.7%   10 - 8 7 - 2 17 - 12 14 - 6 -1.0      -1.4 217 +0.4 153 68.4 212 +1.5 144 +4.7 1
209 Sacramento St. 6.2%   9 - 6 4 - 4 15 - 12 10 - 10 -3.0      -5.6 315 +2.6 100 61.0 341 +0.9 155 -3.2 7
218 Portland St. 4.6%   8 - 12 4 - 6 13 - 17 9 - 11 -3.5      +2.2 115 -5.7 322 71.9 105 -4.3 233 -5.2 8
219 Northern Arizona 5.6%   8 - 7 4 - 4 14 - 13 10 - 10 -3.5      +0.1 174 -3.6 279 68.4 213 -0.7 184 -2.1 4
236 Montana St. 4.5%   9 - 9 5 - 4 14 - 15 10 - 10 -4.3      -3.5 278 -0.7 186 69.0 186 -1.9 194 -2.3 5
276 Weber St. 1.2%   4 - 13 3 - 6 8 - 20 7 - 13 -6.5      -3.0 265 -3.5 276 68.1 218 -8.1 294 -7.9 9
317 Idaho St. 0.3%   4 - 12 3 - 6 7 - 20 6 - 14 -9.5      -3.6 280 -5.8 324 66.0 265 -8.5 299 -8.5 10
321 Idaho 0.3%   3 - 13 1 - 6 7 - 22 5 - 15 -9.7      -7.4 335 -2.3 235 69.4 174 -11.0 324 -13.6 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Northern Colorado 2.1 48.9 22.7 13.3 8.1 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 3.4 16.7 19.7 20.6 17.5 11.4 7.0 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 3.2 20.5 21.3 20.2 15.6 10.2 6.3 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Montana 2.3 36.1 28.4 16.9 9.6 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
Sacramento St. 5.4 2.9 6.6 10.3 14.3 17.2 16.8 14.5 11.0 4.5 1.4 0.3
Portland St. 6.5 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.3 13.7 18.7 20.6 20.8 9.1 2.7 0.4
Northern Arizona 5.4 3.0 6.5 10.5 14.3 16.9 17.0 14.5 11.1 4.4 1.4 0.3
Montana St. 5.6 2.1 4.9 8.9 13.3 17.8 19.1 17.0 12.0 4.0 0.9 0.1
Weber St. 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 6.0 10.4 19.0 35.2 19.0 5.6
Idaho St. 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.7 9.1 23.8 41.1 19.6
Idaho 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 4.3 12.1 26.3 54.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Northern Colorado 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.7 11.0 16.6 20.9 20.0 14.1 6.6 1.7
Southern Utah 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.8 9.4 15.4 19.4 19.8 15.6 8.7 3.4 0.6
Eastern Washington 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.8 8.4 14.4 18.3 20.0 16.5 10.1 4.9 1.6 0.3
Montana 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 7.8 13.7 20.3 21.4 17.6 10.2 3.9 0.8
Sacramento St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.3 10.3 16.1 19.2 18.6 14.4 8.4 3.8 1.1 0.1
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.1 1.0 4.1 10.2 17.8 22.6 21.5 14.2 6.5 1.8 0.2
Northern Arizona 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.2 10.4 15.9 19.2 18.5 14.4 8.4 3.9 1.2 0.2
Montana St. 10 - 10 0.1 1.2 4.5 11.4 18.5 22.2 19.5 13.0 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1
Weber St. 7 - 13 0.9 5.0 12.5 19.9 22.5 19.4 11.8 5.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 6 - 14 5.7 16.5 24.2 23.5 16.1 8.8 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 5 - 15 2.5 9.6 18.3 22.2 19.8 14.2 7.9 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 48.9% 32.9 11.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 16.7% 8.2 5.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 20.5% 10.8 6.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Montana 36.1% 21.3 11.1 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.9% 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 3.0% 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 2.1% 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St.
Idaho 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 30.4% 30.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.1 1.5 6.5 12.4 8.7 1.3 69.6 0.0%
Southern Utah 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.6 7.4 1.8 81.3 0.0%
Eastern Washington 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 5.4 0.8 85.6 0.0%
Montana 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.7 4.9 5.7 1.2 86.3 0.0%
Sacramento St. 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 1.1 93.8 0.0%
Portland St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 95.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 1.6 94.4 0.0%
Montana St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 1.8 95.5 0.0%
Weber St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Colorado 30.4% 0.1% 30.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 18.7% 0.3% 18.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 14.4% 0.1% 14.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 13.7% 0.2% 13.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 6.2% 0.3% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 4.6% 1.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.6% 0.5% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 4.5% 0.6% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 97.4
2nd Round 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0