Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
182 Southern Utah 19.5%   16   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 7 -1.3      -2.3 250 +1.0 135 75.1 70 +7.8 74 0.0 1
196 Eastern Washington 15.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.2      -1.1 212 -1.1 193 76.3 52 +2.7 140 0.0 1
202 Montana 15.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 8 -2.4      -0.8 201 -1.5 205 67.4 250 -4.5 241 0.0 1
210 Northern Colorado 13.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.9      -2.0 242 -0.8 184 66.7 269 -0.8 190 0.0 1
241 Montana St. 9.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -4.2      -0.8 200 -3.4 281 74.1 81 +6.9 87 0.0 1
268 Sacramento St. 7.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -5.5      -3.8 286 -1.7 211 68.4 214 +4.3 117 0.0 1
276 Portland St. 6.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 10 -5.9      -0.1 174 -5.9 324 71.5 133 -9.1 285 0.0 1
278 Weber St. 5.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 16 9 - 11 -6.2      -2.4 252 -3.8 292 72.7 104 -12.2 314 0.0 1
292 Northern Arizona 4.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.3      -1.8 231 -5.5 319 70.6 157 +5.0 112 0.0 1
315 Idaho St. 1.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -9.8      -2.8 263 -7.0 339 67.7 240 -1.2 203 0.0 1
335 Idaho 0.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -11.6      -6.3 326 -5.3 317 64.1 314 -11.6 309 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Southern Utah 3.5 26.2 18.2 14.1 11.2 8.9 7.1 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.7
Eastern Washington 4.0 20.4 16.6 14.0 11.8 9.9 8.1 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.1
Montana 4.1 20.3 16.1 13.4 11.4 9.7 8.3 7.1 5.6 4.0 2.7 1.4
Northern Colorado 4.3 17.1 15.1 13.4 12.1 10.6 9.1 7.5 5.9 4.7 3.0 1.5
Montana St. 5.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 11.8 11.0 10.6 9.4 7.9 6.5 4.7 2.6
Sacramento St. 5.8 8.0 8.9 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.1 8.8 7.5 4.9
Portland St. 6.0 6.3 7.7 8.8 10.1 10.8 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.2 7.8 5.0
Weber St. 6.1 5.9 7.6 8.7 9.6 10.3 10.9 11.3 11.0 10.4 8.5 5.8
Northern Arizona 6.7 4.5 6.0 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.9 11.1 11.5 12.0 11.7 9.6
Idaho St. 8.1 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.7 5.9 7.9 9.9 12.1 15.3 18.0 19.1
Idaho 8.9 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.3 7.6 10.4 15.3 21.3 30.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Southern Utah 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.8 7.6 9.5 10.8 11.5 11.7 10.4 8.9 6.8 4.2 1.9 0.6
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.2 8.9 10.2 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.5 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.3 0.3
Montana 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.9 7.5 8.7 9.9 10.7 11.0 10.3 9.1 7.3 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.3
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.8 10.6 11.1 11.0 10.1 8.4 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.2
Montana St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.2 7.9 9.6 10.6 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.0 6.1 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Sacramento St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.8 6.5 8.2 9.4 10.6 10.4 10.5 9.1 7.7 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.1 9.1 10.2 10.9 11.1 10.2 8.9 7.1 5.5 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.9 10.6 10.0 8.5 6.9 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.9 5.7 7.6 9.0 10.0 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.5 6.8 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 13 0.7 2.3 4.6 7.3 9.7 11.1 11.7 11.4 10.5 9.0 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 6 - 14 1.4 4.2 7.8 10.8 12.7 13.4 12.3 10.9 8.5 6.3 4.5 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern Utah 26.2% 18.6 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 20.4% 13.9 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Montana 20.3% 14.0 5.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Northern Colorado 17.1% 11.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Montana St. 11.3% 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 8.0% 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 6.3% 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 5.9% 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 4.5% 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern Utah 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 5.1 6.0 4.1 80.5 0.0%
Eastern Washington 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.0 5.3 3.7 84.3 0.0%
Montana 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 5.0 4.3 84.6 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.0 4.6 4.5 86.2 0.0%
Montana St. 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.4 3.2 90.3 0.0%
Sacramento St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.9 92.8 0.0%
Portland St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.7 94.0 0.0%
Weber St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 94.2 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 95.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 98.2 0.0%
Idaho 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Southern Utah 19.5% 1.7% 18.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 15.7% 1.5% 15.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.4% 1.9% 14.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.8% 2.1% 12.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 9.7% 1.4% 8.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 7.2% 1.5% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.0% 2.4% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 5.8% 2.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.4% 1.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 91.6% 0.9 8.4 91.6 0.0
2nd Round 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0