Idaho
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#312
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#321
Pace70.1#157
Improvement+3.2#48

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#334
First Shot-7.4#342
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#147
Layup/Dunks-1.5#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#346
Freethrows-2.0#316
Improvement+1.3#105

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#228
First Shot-1.4#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#228
Layups/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement+1.9#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 3.8% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 63.4% 45.0% 68.8%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 121 - 13
Quad 46 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 237   @ UC Riverside L 51-58 23%     0 - 1 -8.4 -12.8 +3.2
  Nov 14, 2019 252   UC Davis L 64-65 35%     0 - 2 -6.1 -7.5 +1.4
  Nov 15, 2019 289   VMI W 68-67 44%     1 - 2 -6.6 -9.3 +2.8
  Nov 17, 2019 207   @ Arkansas St. L 68-82 20%     1 - 3 -14.1 -1.4 -13.9
  Nov 26, 2019 149   North Dakota St. L 53-70 25%     1 - 4 -19.0 -20.2 +0.3
  Nov 30, 2019 196   @ Seattle L 55-74 18%     1 - 5 -18.6 -19.3 +1.5
  Dec 04, 2019 127   Washington St. L 65-78 20%     1 - 6 -13.3 -17.3 +6.0
  Dec 14, 2019 224   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-70 OT 40%     2 - 6 -0.6 -9.7 +8.3
  Dec 21, 2019 142   @ South Dakota St. L 57-85 11%     2 - 7 -23.6 -20.8 -1.2
  Dec 28, 2019 310   @ Idaho St. L 60-62 38%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -7.9 -11.1 +3.0
  Dec 30, 2019 281   @ Weber St. L 68-69 31%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -4.9 -8.2 +3.3
  Jan 02, 2020 220   Portland St. W 72-61 39%     3 - 9 1 - 2 +4.6 -11.1 +15.2
  Jan 09, 2020 248   Montana St. L 68-71 44%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -10.7 -5.2 -5.5
  Jan 16, 2020 179   Eastern Washington L 75-78 30%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -6.7 -0.9 -5.8
  Jan 18, 2020 176   @ Montana L 63-67 14%     3 - 12 1 - 5 -1.7 -8.5 +6.9
  Jan 25, 2020 135   Northern Colorado L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 27, 2020 155   Southern Utah L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 01, 2020 222   @ Northern Arizona L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 03, 2020 213   @ Sacramento St. L 55-64 20%    
  Feb 06, 2020 248   @ Montana St. L 63-70 24%    
  Feb 08, 2020 176   Montana L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 13, 2020 179   @ Eastern Washington L 69-80 14%    
  Feb 17, 2020 220   @ Portland St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 20, 2020 222   Northern Arizona L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 213   Sacramento St. L 58-61 39%    
  Feb 27, 2020 135   @ Northern Colorado L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 29, 2020 155   @ Southern Utah L 59-72 12%    
  Mar 05, 2020 281   Weber St. W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 07, 2020 310   Idaho St. W 69-66 59%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.7 0.4 6.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 6.0 5.1 1.2 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.4 7.4 1.8 0.1 24.8 10th
11th 1.6 7.2 13.5 15.4 7.4 1.8 0.2 47.2 11th
Total 1.6 7.2 14.4 20.9 19.3 15.9 10.5 6.1 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-11 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
8-12 6.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.0
7-13 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-14 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.9
5-15 19.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.3
4-16 20.9% 20.9
3-17 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%