Montana
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#176
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#129
Pace67.7#234
Improvement+2.5#73

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#231
First Shot+0.4#158
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#320
Layup/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#263
Freethrows-0.9#245
Improvement+1.9#74

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#283
Layups/Dunks+0.3#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#9
Freethrows-3.1#324
Improvement+0.6#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 17.8% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 92.1% 95.4% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 48.0% 54.6% 32.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round16.6% 17.7% 13.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 44   @ Stanford L 62-73 10%     0 - 1 +2.6 -0.9 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2019 39   @ Arkansas L 46-64 9%     0 - 2 -3.9 -16.1 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2019 46   @ Washington L 56-73 10%     0 - 3 -3.8 -11.7 +9.1
  Nov 25, 2019 242   Texas Southern W 74-62 75%     1 - 3 +4.5 -7.2 +11.1
  Nov 29, 2019 333   Coppin St. W 69-62 89%     2 - 3 -7.1 -11.0 +3.8
  Dec 01, 2019 123   @ New Mexico L 63-72 27%     2 - 4 -3.2 -5.1 +1.3
  Dec 06, 2019 238   North Dakota W 77-70 74%     3 - 4 -0.2 -2.9 +2.6
  Dec 18, 2019 21   @ Oregon L 48-81 7%     3 - 5 -16.5 -21.1 +6.5
  Dec 21, 2019 213   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-87 OT 49%     3 - 6 -5.2 -5.5 +1.0
  Dec 28, 2019 226   Northern Arizona W 79-72 72%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +0.4 +0.7 -0.3
  Dec 30, 2019 222   Sacramento St. W 52-50 72%     5 - 6 2 - 0 -4.5 -16.3 +11.9
  Jan 02, 2020 158   @ Southern Utah W 60-58 36%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +5.3 -5.1 +10.5
  Jan 04, 2020 137   @ Northern Colorado L 66-74 31%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -3.3 -1.2 -2.4
  Jan 09, 2020 180   @ Eastern Washington W 90-63 40%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +29.2 +12.5 +15.2
  Jan 13, 2020 212   Portland St. W 85-70 70%     8 - 7 5 - 1 +9.1 +6.9 +2.5
  Jan 18, 2020 312   Idaho W 67-63 86%     9 - 7 6 - 1 -8.0 -10.7 +2.6
  Jan 23, 2020 310   @ Idaho St. W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 25, 2020 284   @ Weber St. W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 30, 2020 212   @ Portland St. L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 01, 2020 249   Montana St. W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 06, 2020 180   Eastern Washington W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 312   @ Idaho W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 13, 2020 284   Weber St. W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 310   Idaho St. W 71-60 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 249   @ Montana St. W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 27, 2020 226   @ Northern Arizona W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 222   @ Sacramento St. W 61-60 51%    
  Mar 05, 2020 137   Northern Colorado W 66-65 52%    
  Mar 07, 2020 158   Southern Utah W 67-65 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 7.1 13.1 13.3 8.4 3.6 0.7 48.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 7.2 9.6 5.3 1.2 0.1 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.7 10.5 15.5 18.8 18.6 14.6 8.5 3.6 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 100.0% 3.6    3.6 0.0
17-3 99.1% 8.4    7.9 0.5
16-4 91.6% 13.3    10.7 2.6 0.1
15-5 70.6% 13.1    7.2 5.0 0.8 0.0
14-6 38.0% 7.1    2.3 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 10.0% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 48.0% 48.0 32.7 12.0 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 38.9% 38.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 3.6% 28.3% 28.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.6
17-3 8.5% 25.6% 25.6% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 6.3
16-4 14.6% 21.8% 21.8% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 11.4
15-5 18.6% 19.0% 19.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.0 15.0
14-6 18.8% 16.3% 16.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.2 15.7
13-7 15.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 13.5
12-8 10.5% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 9.6
11-9 5.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.2
10-10 2.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.5
9-11 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-12 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.2 6.0 1.2 83.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.4 7.7 51.4 38.0 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%