Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 Georgia Southern 20.8%   14   1 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +3.0      +1.8 118 +1.2 131 81.6 18 +0.6 169 0.0 1
117 Texas Arlington 19.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 13 - 7 +2.6      +0.5 158 +2.0 114 66.4 276 +3.2 133 0.0 1
136 Texas St. 15.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1.8      -1.0 205 +2.8 91 64.3 309 -4.0 235 0.0 1
151 Georgia St. 12.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.6      +1.6 127 -1.0 188 72.5 108 -4.8 246 0.0 1
162 South Alabama 10.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 12 11 - 9 0.0      +3.0 89 -3.1 269 66.2 278 -4.0 233 0.0 1
193 Coastal Carolina 5.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -2.0      +1.3 135 -3.3 274 72.4 116 -20.3 350 0.0 1
197 Arkansas Little Rock 5.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -2.2      -0.5 186 -1.7 210 72.5 109 +4.0 124 0.0 1
198 Appalachian St. 4.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -2.2      -1.7 225 -0.5 173 76.7 47 -5.5 252 0.0 1
225 Louisiana 3.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -3.4      0.0 172 -3.5 285 77.9 35 +3.6 129 0.0 1
237 Louisiana Monroe 2.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 12 -3.9      -2.0 238 -2.0 222 66.8 267 -4.6 243 0.0 1
265 Arkansas St. 1.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -5.4      -2.0 239 -3.4 282 69.8 178 +2.2 145 0.0 1
299 Troy 0.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -7.9      -2.9 266 -5.0 313 68.1 227 -18.4 347 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia Southern 3.6 26.9 18.1 13.6 10.9 8.6 6.6 5.0 3.9 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5
Texas Arlington 3.8 25.4 17.2 13.4 10.7 8.7 6.8 5.6 4.2 3.4 2.2 1.6 0.7
Texas St. 4.2 18.8 15.9 13.8 11.7 10.0 8.1 6.6 5.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.8
Georgia St. 4.9 14.4 13.1 12.0 11.2 10.3 9.1 8.0 6.8 5.9 4.4 3.3 1.7
South Alabama 5.0 12.5 13.2 12.4 11.7 10.5 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.7 4.4 3.4 1.8
Coastal Carolina 6.4 6.4 7.5 8.3 9.1 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.5 7.2 5.1
Arkansas Little Rock 6.3 6.3 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.1 9.1 8.0 6.9 4.8
Appalachian St. 6.7 4.8 6.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.3 7.7 5.0
Louisiana 7.3 3.3 4.6 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.3 7.7
Louisiana Monroe 7.6 2.8 4.1 5.4 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.6 10.8 11.6 12.1 11.6 9.3
Arkansas St. 8.3 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.9 6.2 7.7 9.0 10.6 11.9 13.1 14.7 13.7
Troy 9.6 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 6.0 7.8 10.2 13.5 18.8 29.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Georgia Southern 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.5 7.3 9.4 11.0 11.8 12.0 11.3 9.3 7.1 4.2 2.0 0.5
Texas Arlington 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.8 7.9 9.2 11.0 11.4 11.5 10.8 8.8 6.5 3.9 2.0 0.5
Texas St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.2 7.2 9.0 11.0 11.7 11.6 11.0 9.6 7.2 4.6 2.6 1.0 0.2
Georgia St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.1 7.0 8.7 10.0 11.2 11.0 10.4 9.3 7.6 5.5 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2
South Alabama 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.0 9.0 10.3 11.5 11.3 10.7 9.2 7.3 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
Coastal Carolina 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.0 7.0 8.9 10.2 11.1 10.8 10.2 8.9 7.4 5.5 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.5 9.9 10.8 11.1 10.3 9.4 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.8 9.4 10.8 11.4 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.9 4.9 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.2 7.2 9.4 10.7 11.4 11.5 10.6 9.0 7.0 5.3 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.0 8.2 10.1 11.4 11.5 11.0 9.8 8.0 6.6 4.6 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 7.9 9.9 11.5 11.7 11.6 10.3 8.7 6.6 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 6 - 14 1.4 4.1 7.5 10.3 12.1 12.8 11.9 10.9 8.9 6.8 5.1 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia Southern 26.9% 19.0 6.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 25.4% 17.7 6.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 18.8% 12.4 5.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 14.4% 9.3 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 12.5% 7.7 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6.4% 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 6.3% 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 4.8% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 3.3% 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2.8% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Troy 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia Southern 20.8% 20.6% 0.2% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 4.1 6.8 5.8 2.6 0.4 79.2 0.2%
Texas Arlington 19.3% 19.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.7 6.9 4.5 1.5 0.1 80.7 0.4%
Texas St. 15.5% 15.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 5.2 3.0 0.5 84.5 0.1%
Georgia St. 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 3.8 2.3 0.5 87.9 0.1%
South Alabama 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.4 2.8 0.7 90.0 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.0 94.2 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.3 94.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.5 95.6 0.0%
Louisiana 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.3 97.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Arkansas St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 98.6 0.0%
Troy 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Georgia Southern 20.8% 0.2% 20.7% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 19.3% 0.2% 19.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 15.5% 0.1% 15.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 12.1% 0.1% 12.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.0% 0.1% 9.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.8% 0.3% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 5.3% 0.1% 5.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.4% 0.1% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.1 0.4
2nd Round 13.3% 0.1 86.7 13.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0