Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Georgia St. 32.0%   14   12 - 7 7 - 3 19 - 10 14 - 6 +4.4      +2.5 110 +1.9 117 77.2 28 +4.6 104 +4.0 2
114 Texas Arlington 18.2%   7 - 12 5 - 5 14 - 15 12 - 8 +3.4      +0.9 156 +2.6 98 69.8 156 -0.6 183 +0.3 5
133 Texas St. 9.2%   10 - 9 5 - 5 16 - 13 11 - 9 +1.9      +0.2 174 +1.7 124 63.6 318 +0.1 168 -0.6 7
140 Arkansas Little Rock 20.0%   14 - 7 9 - 2 19 - 11 14 - 6 +1.6      -0.5 191 +2.1 112 70.5 140 +4.0 111 +6.6 1
148 Georgia Southern 10.2%   10 - 9 6 - 4 16 - 13 12 - 8 +1.1      +0.4 171 +0.7 145 77.9 22 +0.3 165 +1.6 3
180 South Alabama 3.2%   9 - 10 5 - 6 14 - 14 10 - 10 -0.8      +1.6 131 -2.4 236 63.8 312 -1.2 190 -2.0 8
187 Coastal Carolina 1.9%   9 - 10 4 - 6 13 - 16 8 - 12 -1.2      +0.2 172 -1.4 209 76.4 33 -2.3 204 -3.6 9
189 Appalachian St. 2.4%   9 - 10 5 - 5 14 - 15 10 - 10 -1.5      -1.7 221 +0.2 156 68.9 191 -0.7 184 -0.3 6
197 Arkansas St. 2.5%   13 - 7 7 - 4 17 - 12 11 - 9 -2.3      +1.2 142 -3.6 277 66.7 251 +2.6 130 +1.3 4
245 Louisiana 0.2%   7 - 13 3 - 7 10 - 20 6 - 14 -4.9      -2.4 243 -2.5 241 75.8 41 -5.5 253 -6.4 11
276 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   4 - 13 2 - 8 7 - 20 5 - 15 -6.5      -2.9 260 -3.6 278 62.9 324 -9.5 310 -9.2 12
283 Troy 0.0%   6 - 14 4 - 7 9 - 20 7 - 13 -6.7      -3.9 287 -2.8 255 69.8 157 -6.8 273 -4.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 1.8 51.5 28.6 11.1 5.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 3.7 9.5 18.2 24.7 18.4 12.6 8.3 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 4.9 3.7 8.8 16.2 17.3 16.7 14.1 11.0 7.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 1.7 56.3 28.0 9.3 4.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.9 7.6 16.0 23.1 19.5 13.8 8.8 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 6.4 0.3 1.8 5.6 10.1 14.5 17.5 18.8 16.5 9.8 3.8 1.1 0.2
Coastal Carolina 7.9 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.7 9.7 13.3 19.5 24.8 13.3 5.3 0.9
Appalachian St. 6.5 0.7 2.4 5.8 8.7 13.2 15.8 17.4 17.6 12.5 4.3 1.4 0.1
Arkansas St. 5.1 2.6 7.2 12.3 17.0 18.8 17.1 13.1 8.0 3.3 0.7 0.1
Louisiana 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 6.9 15.4 26.4 30.9 14.5
Louisiana Monroe 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.7 12.8 25.8 54.3
Troy 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 8.8 18.2 32.5 24.9 8.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Georgia St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 4.0 9.3 18.5 24.8 23.9 14.4 4.1
Texas Arlington 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 10.5 18.4 24.0 23.2 13.7 4.1
Texas St. 11 - 9 0.3 1.5 4.9 11.2 18.7 23.4 20.8 13.6 4.7 0.9
Arkansas Little Rock 14 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.7 17.4 25.7 24.6 15.2 5.7 0.9
Georgia Southern 12 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.9 20.2 24.1 20.5 11.4 3.9 0.4
South Alabama 10 - 10 0.1 1.3 5.3 13.2 21.7 25.1 19.9 10.0 3.0 0.4
Coastal Carolina 8 - 12 0.3 2.6 8.2 17.8 22.3 22.0 14.8 8.4 3.0 0.6 0.1
Appalachian St. 10 - 10 0.3 2.2 7.2 14.9 21.0 23.8 17.1 9.3 3.3 0.8 0.1
Arkansas St. 11 - 9 0.9 5.0 13.2 22.2 25.3 19.1 10.1 3.5 0.7 0.1
Louisiana 6 - 14 2.7 10.0 19.4 23.5 21.6 13.3 6.6 2.2 0.5 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 15 4.9 16.4 24.2 23.8 17.8 8.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Troy 7 - 13 4.2 16.5 26.7 25.3 16.5 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 51.5% 31.2 15.7 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 9.5% 2.9 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 3.7% 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 56.3% 35.8 16.0 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 7.6% 2.2 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Arkansas St. 2.6% 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe
Troy


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.3 6.8 15.5 8.3 1.0 0.0 68.0 0.0%
Texas Arlington 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 5.2 7.2 4.3 0.4 81.8 0.0%
Texas St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 90.8 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 6.1 8.7 4.1 0.2 80.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.9 0.4 89.8 0.0%
South Alabama 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.3 96.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Arkansas St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 97.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Georgia St. 32.0% 0.0% 32.0% 5.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 18.2% 0.1% 18.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 10.2% 0.1% 10.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0