Troy
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#277
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#273
Pace70.0#166
Improvement+1.9#95

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#284
First Shot-5.2#310
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#81
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#147
Freethrows-2.8#333
Improvement+0.0#182

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#252
First Shot+0.4#145
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#349
Layups/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#302
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+1.9#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.7
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 13.5% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.9% 15.7% 34.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 104 - 14
Quad 45 - 79 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 167   UAB L 75-76 37%     0 - 1 -4.0 +7.1 -11.1
  Nov 12, 2019 162   Chattanooga L 68-74 35%     0 - 2 -8.6 -9.4 +1.0
  Nov 16, 2019 42   @ Indiana L 62-100 4%     0 - 3 -24.4 -8.5 -12.4
  Nov 20, 2019 130   @ Texas A&M L 52-56 14%     0 - 4 +1.2 -15.5 +16.7
  Nov 23, 2019 265   @ Samford L 60-72 36%     0 - 5 -14.9 -18.2 +3.7
  Nov 25, 2019 337   Alabama A&M L 66-80 80%     0 - 6 -29.3 -8.5 -21.9
  Dec 04, 2019 289   North Alabama W 71-63 64%     1 - 6 -2.3 -6.5 +4.0
  Dec 11, 2019 235   @ Jacksonville St. W 60-55 31%     2 - 6 +3.7 -7.1 +11.2
  Dec 15, 2019 162   @ Chattanooga L 80-84 OT 18%     2 - 7 -0.8 +6.8 -7.6
  Dec 19, 2019 164   Coastal Carolina W 77-59 36%     3 - 7 1 - 0 +15.1 -4.6 +18.2
  Dec 21, 2019 194   Appalachian St. L 65-70 44%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -9.9 -9.1 -0.8
  Jan 02, 2020 246   @ Louisiana Monroe L 63-79 33%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -18.0 -12.0 -5.7
  Jan 04, 2020 255   @ Louisiana L 62-79 35%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -19.5 -16.0 -2.6
  Jan 06, 2020 138   @ Texas St. W 71-63 15%     4 - 10 2 - 3 +12.7 +7.7 +5.8
  Jan 09, 2020 158   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-71 35%     5 - 10 3 - 3 +2.5 +0.0 +2.3
  Jan 11, 2020 214   @ Arkansas St. L 68-76 OT 28%     5 - 11 3 - 4 -8.3 -14.2 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2020 135   Georgia Southern L 66-82 30%     5 - 12 3 - 5 -17.0 -4.3 -13.4
  Jan 18, 2020 98   Georgia St. L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 22, 2020 158   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 25, 2020 214   Arkansas St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 30, 2020 135   @ Georgia Southern L 68-79 14%    
  Feb 01, 2020 98   @ Georgia St. L 67-81 9%    
  Feb 08, 2020 180   South Alabama L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 13, 2020 246   Louisiana Monroe W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 15, 2020 255   Louisiana W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 20, 2020 164   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-79 19%    
  Feb 22, 2020 194   @ Appalachian St. L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 29, 2020 180   @ South Alabama L 64-73 21%    
  Mar 03, 2020 128   Texas Arlington L 66-72 29%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.2 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.9 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 6.0 6.5 0.8 14.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 8.2 10.8 2.7 0.1 23.5 10th
11th 0.1 2.6 9.6 11.0 3.2 0.1 26.7 11th
12th 2.0 6.3 6.3 2.1 0.2 16.9 12th
Total 2.1 8.9 17.6 22.4 20.9 14.9 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.6
9-11 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
8-12 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
7-13 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
6-14 22.4% 22.4
5-15 17.6% 17.6
4-16 8.9% 8.9
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%