Louisiana
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#256
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#254
Pace75.3#47
Improvement-1.8#260

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#238
First Shot-3.0#274
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#107
Layup/Dunks-1.7#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#231
Freethrows+0.7#120
Improvement-1.1#243

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#272
First Shot-2.7#257
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks-0.6#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#290
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement-0.8#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.4% 7.5% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.7% 30.0% 52.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 48 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 289   McNeese St. W 85-80 68%     1 - 0 -5.3 -4.6 -1.1
  Nov 12, 2019 60   @ TCU L 65-98 7%     1 - 1 -21.6 -3.7 -15.9
  Nov 15, 2019 237   Youngstown St. W 73-61 57%     2 - 1 +4.9 -7.2 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2019 275   @ Wyoming L 61-69 OT 43%     2 - 2 -11.5 -16.2 +5.4
  Nov 25, 2019 270   Detroit Mercy W 81-62 53%     3 - 2 +12.9 -3.8 +15.1
  Nov 26, 2019 112   UC Irvine L 67-92 19%     3 - 3 -21.1 -6.1 -14.0
  Dec 03, 2019 315   SE Louisiana W 98-81 75%     4 - 3 +4.6 +8.0 -5.5
  Dec 07, 2019 74   @ Arizona St. L 65-77 8%     4 - 4 -2.0 -4.2 +2.8
  Dec 14, 2019 86   @ Louisiana Tech L 59-77 9%     4 - 5 -8.7 -11.2 +2.8
  Dec 18, 2019 229   @ Arkansas St. L 67-79 33%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -13.0 -10.1 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2019 161   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-69 39%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -5.5 -3.0 -2.7
  Dec 29, 2019 162   UC Santa Barbara L 77-85 39%     4 - 8 -10.5 -1.6 -8.6
  Jan 02, 2020 183   South Alabama L 57-60 43%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -6.6 -8.0 +0.8
  Jan 04, 2020 276   Troy W 79-62 65%     5 - 9 1 - 3 +7.6 -2.2 +8.9
  Jan 06, 2020 194   @ Appalachian St. W 81-73 27%     6 - 9 2 - 3 +8.9 +7.1 +1.6
  Jan 09, 2020 97   @ Georgia St. L 52-90 11%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -30.2 -20.1 -8.2
  Jan 11, 2020 133   @ Georgia Southern L 51-71 17%     6 - 11 2 - 5 -15.1 -18.3 +2.8
  Jan 16, 2020 127   Texas Arlington L 65-81 32%     6 - 12 2 - 6 -16.6 -7.2 -9.5
  Jan 18, 2020 136   Texas St. L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 25, 2020 245   Louisiana Monroe W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 30, 2020 127   @ Texas Arlington L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 01, 2020 136   @ Texas St. L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 06, 2020 97   Georgia St. L 74-81 24%    
  Feb 08, 2020 133   Georgia Southern L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 13, 2020 183   @ South Alabama L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 15, 2020 276   @ Troy L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 22, 2020 245   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 26, 2020 229   Arkansas St. W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 161   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 03, 2020 159   Coastal Carolina L 76-79 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.1 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.7 4.9 0.7 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 7.9 8.3 1.8 0.0 19.9 10th
11th 0.1 2.5 9.4 9.9 2.5 0.1 24.5 11th
12th 1.3 6.0 10.6 8.6 2.4 0.1 29.1 12th
Total 1.3 6.1 13.2 19.8 21.4 17.6 11.5 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 2.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-10 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
9-11 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.8
8-12 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
7-13 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
6-14 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.4
5-15 19.8% 19.8
4-16 13.2% 13.2
3-17 6.1% 6.1
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%