Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 New Mexico St. 53.2%   14   1 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 3 +6.6      +4.3 69 +2.4 102 65.8 285 -5.9 256 0.0 1
163 Grand Canyon 13.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 6 -0.3      +1.2 139 -1.5 203 69.6 182 -4.6 242 0.0 1
215 Cal St. Bakersfield 7.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 7 -3.1      -1.6 223 -1.6 206 64.3 306 -15.7 338 0.0 1
220 California Baptist 6.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 12 8 - 8 -3.2      +0.3 164 -3.5 286 74.3 79 -4.2 238 0.0 1
231 Utah Valley 6.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -3.7      -2.9 264 -0.8 185 70.3 164 -1.6 207 0.0 1
244 Seattle 5.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 8 -4.3      -3.9 289 -0.4 170 68.6 210 -15.2 334 0.0 1
258 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 8 -5.0      -4.4 298 -0.7 180 74.2 80 -13.2 321 0.0 1
272 UMKC 3.5%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 9 -5.6      -3.8 287 -1.8 214 66.5 273 -10.8 302 0.0 1
353 Chicago St. 0.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 2 - 25 1 - 15 -20.7      -9.4 347 -11.3 353 80.1 23 -17.2 344 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.5 71.2 16.5 6.3 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 3.4 16.0 25.1 18.4 13.7 10.3 7.7 5.5 3.3 0.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.4 7.2 15.1 16.0 15.2 14.0 12.5 11.0 8.4 0.5
California Baptist 4.5 6.5 14.3 16.1 15.8 14.2 13.0 11.1 8.5 0.5
Utah Valley 4.7 5.6 13.0 14.7 15.0 14.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 0.7
Seattle 4.9 4.6 11.2 13.7 14.0 14.6 14.8 14.1 12.1 0.9
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.2 3.8 9.5 11.7 13.5 14.2 15.3 15.5 15.3 1.2
UMKC 5.4 2.8 7.8 10.4 12.8 14.6 15.7 17.2 17.3 1.4
Chicago St. 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 8.5 88.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.2 8.7 12.9 17.7 20.6 18.9 10.6
Grand Canyon 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.8 13.4 14.3 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.1 2.2 0.6
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.7 9.7 12.2 14.0 13.9 12.8 10.0 6.9 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.0 6.9 10.0 12.6 14.2 14.4 12.8 9.8 6.6 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
Utah Valley 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.9 7.8 10.9 13.3 14.3 13.7 12.0 8.8 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
Seattle 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 6.0 9.1 12.0 13.8 14.3 13.0 10.9 7.6 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.1 7.2 10.4 12.8 14.2 13.9 12.0 9.3 6.8 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
UMKC 7 - 9 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.5 8.2 11.5 14.1 14.5 14.0 11.4 8.4 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 1 - 15 39.1 30.4 17.0 7.8 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 71.2% 59.1 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 16.0% 9.5 5.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.2% 3.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 6.5% 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 5.6% 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seattle 4.6% 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UMKC 2.8% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 53.2% 52.9% 0.3% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 3.2 11.4 15.9 12.1 6.2 1.9 46.8 0.6%
Grand Canyon 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.7 3.9 2.7 86.1 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.9 92.7 0.0%
California Baptist 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.9 93.2 0.0%
Utah Valley 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 93.8 0.0%
Seattle 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.1 94.8 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 95.8 0.0%
UMKC 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 96.5 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
New Mexico St. 53.2% 0.8% 52.9% 12.2% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 13.9% 1.1% 13.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.3% 1.5% 6.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 6.8% 1.5% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 6.2% 1.5% 5.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 5.2% 2.0% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.2% 1.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.5% 1.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 95.1% 1.0 4.9 94.9 0.2
2nd Round 14.5% 0.1 85.5 14.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0