Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 New Mexico St. 52.1%   14   11 - 6 4 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 2 +5.2      +2.2 118 +3.0 93 63.5 317 +4.0 112 +12.1 1
182 California Baptist 14.5%   10 - 5 3 - 1 18 - 9 11 - 5 -0.8      +1.7 133 -2.5 245 72.8 89 +0.9 158 +4.7 2
197 Seattle 9.3%   8 - 9 3 - 1 14 - 15 9 - 7 -2.4      -2.3 245 0.0 160 69.3 185 -5.7 255 -2.2 4
218 Cal St. Bakersfield 7.0%   5 - 10 2 - 1 12 - 16 9 - 7 -3.4      -1.1 202 -2.3 238 64.3 307 -5.7 254 -0.2 3
221 Grand Canyon 6.4%   6 - 10 1 - 2 13 - 16 8 - 8 -3.4      -1.1 205 -2.3 242 68.3 212 -6.4 265 -12.4 8
243 UMKC 4.6%   7 - 10 2 - 3 13 - 15 8 - 8 -4.4      -2.4 247 -2.0 225 66.9 248 -2.3 207 -6.2 6
258 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6%   3 - 11 2 - 2 8 - 18 7 - 9 -5.5      -3.4 274 -2.1 227 74.2 66 -9.9 314 -5.3 5
276 Utah Valley 2.4%   4 - 12 1 - 3 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.5      -4.2 289 -2.3 239 73.1 82 -9.8 313 -12.3 7
353 Chicago St. 0.0%   1 - 16 0 - 5 2 - 26 1 - 15 -21.1      -9.0 346 -12.1 352 75.2 47 -19.3 348 -20.5 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.2 87.7 9.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 2.5 14.1 48.4 19.9 9.4 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.2
Seattle 3.7 5.2 21.5 24.2 19.3 14.1 8.6 5.2 1.8
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.0 4.1 17.8 23.8 19.6 14.6 10.4 6.7 3.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.1 1.2 7.5 13.6 16.8 17.3 16.2 15.5 11.8 0.0
UMKC 5.2 0.4 5.8 12.1 16.9 19.3 20.6 16.5 8.6 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.5 0.7 4.9 10.8 14.5 17.2 18.2 18.1 15.7 0.1
Utah Valley 6.4 0.1 1.9 4.9 8.0 11.7 16.5 22.4 34.4 0.2
Chicago St. 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 99.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 14 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.6 12.0 20.4 25.8 22.7 10.6
California Baptist 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.3 12.6 19.0 22.4 19.4 11.7 4.7 0.8
Seattle 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 10.7 17.5 20.6 19.4 14.1 7.3 3.0 0.7 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.7 12.4 17.8 20.6 18.1 12.2 6.5 2.1 0.6 0.0
Grand Canyon 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 8.7 14.3 18.5 19.9 15.9 10.4 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
UMKC 8 - 8 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.8 16.0 22.0 21.6 16.6 9.0 3.5 0.7 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 7 - 9 0.2 1.5 5.2 10.9 16.9 20.0 19.1 14.0 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 6 - 10 0.1 1.3 5.6 12.0 18.6 21.1 18.4 12.6 6.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 1 - 15 58.6 30.3 8.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 87.7% 76.8 9.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 14.1% 6.8 6.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Seattle 5.2% 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.1% 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 1.2% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UMKC 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 52.1% 52.1% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 10.7 20.1 14.9 4.7 0.5 47.9 0.0%
California Baptist 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 6.3 4.0 85.5 0.0%
Seattle 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 7.9 90.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.6 93.0 0.0%
Grand Canyon 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.1 93.6 0.0%
UMKC 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 95.4 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.4 96.4 0.0%
Utah Valley 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
New Mexico St. 52.1% 0.0% 52.1% 9.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 14.5% 1.1% 14.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 9.3% 5.1% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.0% 3.7% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 6.4% 3.4% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.6% 2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 2.4% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 91.3% 0.9 8.7 91.3
2nd Round 10.7% 0.1 89.3 10.7
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0