Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-20.3#352
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#285
Pace101.2#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-11.0#352
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 12.5% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 49.0% 15.6% 49.1%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 44 - 154 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 41   @ Iowa St. L 74-110 0.5%    0 - 1 -22.1 -8.1 -7.0
  Nov 08, 2019 82   @ Utah L 49-143 1%     0 - 2 -84.5 -33.5 -27.7
  Nov 10, 2019 123   @ Central Michigan L 78-134 2%     0 - 3 -50.8 -16.4 -19.6
  Nov 12, 2019 235   @ Western Michigan L 81-91 5%     0 - 4 -11.0 +3.0 -13.6
  Nov 19, 2019 90   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-97 0.3%   
  Nov 24, 2019 202   @ South Dakota St. L 80-101 2%    
  Nov 27, 2019 311   @ North Alabama L 80-94 10%    
  Dec 06, 2019 141   @ Missouri St. L 68-93 1%    
  Dec 15, 2019 156   @ Miami (OH) L 76-100 2%    
  Dec 17, 2019 101   @ Wright St. L 72-100 1%    
  Dec 20, 2019 117   @ Santa Clara L 71-97 1%    
  Dec 22, 2019 199   @ California Baptist L 82-103 3%    
  Jan 04, 2020 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 11, 2020 324   @ Alabama St. L 76-89 13%    
  Jan 13, 2020 351   @ Alabama A&M L 81-85 35%    
  Jan 18, 2020 339   Alcorn St. L 78-83 33%    
  Jan 20, 2020 345   Southern L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 268   @ Texas Southern L 87-105 6%    
  Jan 27, 2020 288   @ Prairie View L 81-97 8%    
  Feb 01, 2020 318   Jackson St. L 80-87 26%    
  Feb 03, 2020 276   Grambling St. L 82-93 16%    
  Feb 08, 2020 324   Alabama St. L 79-86 29%    
  Feb 10, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 84-82 56%    
  Feb 15, 2020 339   @ Alcorn St. L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 17, 2020 345   @ Southern L 75-84 22%    
  Feb 22, 2020 268   Texas Southern L 90-102 16%    
  Feb 24, 2020 288   Prairie View L 84-94 18%    
  Feb 29, 2020 318   @ Jackson St. L 77-90 13%    
  Mar 02, 2020 276   @ Grambling St. L 79-96 7%    
  Mar 07, 2020 346   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 76-85 22%    
Projected Record 4 - 26 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.4 1.0 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 15.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.9 7.8 9.4 5.5 1.3 0.1 27.4 9th
10th 3.3 9.2 11.0 8.6 3.5 0.7 0.1 36.4 10th
Total 3.3 9.5 13.9 16.9 16.4 13.5 10.4 6.8 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-9 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 2.6
8-10 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.2
7-11 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-12 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 16.4% 16.4
3-15 16.9% 16.9
2-16 13.9% 13.9
1-17 9.5% 9.5
0-18 3.3% 3.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%