Montana St.
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#204
Pace67.7#229
Improvement-0.8#215

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#236
First Shot+1.7#119
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#345
Layup/Dunks+1.0#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#233
Freethrows+2.3#34
Improvement+0.5#143

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#237
First Shot-4.4#312
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#30
Layups/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-1.3#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.2% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 38.9% 51.4% 26.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.3% 67.0% 39.3%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.2% 4.7%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round3.8% 4.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 85 - 10
Quad 410 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 56   @ Utah St. L 73-81 8%     0 - 1 +3.7 +2.2 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2019 194   Appalachian St. W 59-56 41%     1 - 1 +1.0 -14.6 +15.6
  Nov 16, 2019 86   @ UNC Greensboro W 67-66 11%     2 - 1 +10.3 +1.8 +8.5
  Nov 17, 2019 341   Tennessee Tech W 52-39 80%     3 - 1 -0.2 -19.1 +20.4
  Nov 19, 2019 221   @ Grand Canyon L 56-69 36%     3 - 2 -13.6 -12.0 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2019 216   Green Bay L 72-98 57%     3 - 3 -32.1 -11.6 -19.2
  Dec 05, 2019 133   South Dakota St. W 77-70 37%     4 - 3 +6.3 +1.8 +4.5
  Dec 16, 2019 154   @ North Dakota St. L 65-79 22%     4 - 4 -10.2 -4.5 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2019 218   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 72-74 36%     4 - 5 -2.5 +2.4 -5.0
  Dec 28, 2019 201   Sacramento St. W 66-51 55%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +9.5 -0.9 +11.6
  Dec 30, 2019 245   Northern Arizona W 63-61 62%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -5.5 -11.3 +6.0
  Jan 02, 2020 123   @ Northern Colorado L 59-68 17%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -3.3 -4.5 +0.3
  Jan 04, 2020 174   @ Southern Utah L 53-59 26%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -3.6 -15.1 +11.5
  Jan 09, 2020 318   @ Idaho W 71-68 60%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -3.8 -0.7 -3.0
  Jan 11, 2020 215   Portland St. L 76-77 57%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -7.1 -1.0 -6.2
  Jan 18, 2020 187   Eastern Washington W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 23, 2020 274   @ Weber St. L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 25, 2020 312   @ Idaho St. W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 01, 2020 165   @ Montana L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 06, 2020 318   Idaho W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 187   @ Eastern Washington L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 13, 2020 312   Idaho St. W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 15, 2020 274   Weber St. W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 20, 2020 215   @ Portland St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 165   Montana L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 27, 2020 201   @ Sacramento St. L 60-64 34%    
  Feb 29, 2020 245   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 05, 2020 174   Southern Utah L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 07, 2020 123   Northern Colorado L 66-70 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 7.2 6.2 1.1 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.6 7.1 1.4 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.0 7.1 1.8 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 1.8 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.7 8.6 13.9 17.4 18.2 15.1 10.2 5.9 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 90.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 87.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 51.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 24.0% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.0% 21.8% 21.8% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 2.6% 15.2% 15.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-7 5.9% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.3
12-8 10.2% 7.6% 7.6% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 9.5
11-9 15.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 14.3
10-10 18.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 17.5
9-11 17.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 17.1
8-12 13.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.7
7-13 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-14 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.9 95.8 0.0%