Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
116 Buffalo 19.7%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 13 - 7 +3.5      +3.0 96 +0.5 154 81.4 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Akron 15.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 9 11 - 9 +2.4      +1.2 135 +1.2 135 71.0 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Ball St. 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1.9      -1.3 206 +3.2 87 68.2 200 0.0 1 0.0 1
134 Ohio 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 11 - 9 +1.8      +0.8 143 +1.0 139 68.6 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Toledo 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1.6      +2.3 113 -0.7 192 68.6 185 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 Bowling Green 10.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 11 - 9 +1.0      +2.1 120 -1.1 205 72.6 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 Eastern Michigan 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 12 10 - 10 -0.1      -2.8 253 +2.7 96 65.5 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 Kent St. 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 11 -0.7      +0.5 155 -1.2 207 69.5 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
179 Miami (OH) 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 9 - 11 -1.0      -0.1 176 -0.9 196 66.3 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 Northern Illinois 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 11 -1.9      -2.3 241 +0.5 158 62.8 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Central Michigan 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 8 - 12 -3.1      +0.5 157 -3.6 279 80.3 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Western Michigan 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 13 -4.6      -2.9 256 -1.7 222 67.2 230 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 4.0 24.8 16.1 12.3 10.2 8.4 7.1 5.8 4.6 4.1 3.1 2.1 1.3
Akron 4.9 16.4 13.1 11.7 10.0 9.3 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.8 5.2 3.8 2.4
Ball St. 5.1 14.1 12.7 11.9 10.4 9.6 9.1 7.6 6.9 6.3 4.9 3.8 2.7
Ohio 5.1 13.9 12.6 11.4 10.7 9.3 8.7 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.5 4.2 2.7
Toledo 5.1 13.9 12.9 11.7 10.4 9.9 8.7 7.8 7.1 5.8 5.0 4.0 2.7
Bowling Green 5.7 11.1 9.9 10.2 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.5 5.5 4.0
Eastern Michigan 6.2 8.2 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.2 8.0 6.9 5.4
Kent St. 6.8 6.1 6.7 7.5 8.4 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.3 10.1 9.1 8.7 7.1
Miami (OH) 6.8 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.1 7.5
Northern Illinois 7.2 4.4 5.6 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.7 9.5
Central Michigan 8.0 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.3 7.9 9.0 9.6 10.9 12.1 13.0 14.4
Western Michigan 8.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.3 4.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 10.6 12.9 16.1 21.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Buffalo 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 4.7 6.3 7.7 9.5 9.9 10.6 10.3 10.2 8.4 6.3 4.5 1.9 0.7
Akron 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 9.9 9.9 10.2 9.3 7.3 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.4
Ball St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.7 9.7 10.3 10.4 10.2 8.5 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2
Ohio 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.2 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.2 9.6 8.7 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2
Toledo 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.4 5.5 7.2 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.9 9.8 9.0 7.1 5.5 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.3
Bowling Green 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.2 7.4 8.1 9.5 10.5 9.9 9.8 8.7 7.1 5.6 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
Eastern Michigan 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.0 6.5 7.5 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.0 8.7 8.1 6.4 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
Kent St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 5.9 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.5 9.7 9.4 8.2 6.6 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Miami (OH) 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.5 6.6 7.9 8.5 10.1 10.6 10.1 9.2 7.3 6.5 4.8 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Northern Illinois 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.8 7.5 9.0 9.6 10.5 10.0 9.3 8.6 6.9 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Central Michigan 8 - 12 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.5 8.9 9.8 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.2 7.0 5.5 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 13 1.0 2.9 5.4 7.8 10.1 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.6 8.7 6.6 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 24.8% 17.5 5.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
Akron 16.4% 11.1 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 14.1% 9.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 13.9% 9.0 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 13.9% 9.0 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
Bowling Green 11.1% 7.4 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Michigan 8.2% 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Kent St. 6.1% 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 6.1% 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 4.4% 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 2.8% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 1.6% 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 19.7% 17.2% 2.6% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 4.3 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.4 80.3 3.1%
Akron 15.4% 13.4% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 3.3 4.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 84.6 2.2%
Ball St. 12.8% 11.7% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.4 3.5 2.3 1.6 0.5 87.2 1.3%
Ohio 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.1 3.4 2.7 1.5 0.5 87.8 1.1%
Toledo 11.6% 10.6% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.5 0.5 88.4 1.1%
Bowling Green 10.4% 9.3% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 89.6 1.2%
Eastern Michigan 7.7% 7.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.6 92.3 0.5%
Kent St. 6.0% 5.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 94.0 0.4%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 94.4 0.4%
Northern Illinois 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 95.8 0.1%
Central Michigan 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 97.1 0.1%
Western Michigan 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Buffalo 19.7% 1.4% 19.1% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Akron 15.4% 1.3% 14.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 12.8% 0.8% 12.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 12.2% 0.8% 11.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 11.6% 0.8% 11.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 10.4% 1.0% 9.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 7.7% 0.6% 7.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 6.0% 0.5% 5.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 0.5% 5.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 4.2% 0.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.9 9.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.1 1.0 91.8 7.1 0.1
2nd Round 20.3% 0.2 79.7 19.8 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0