Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 12.4% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 65.4% 66.6% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 68.2% 40.4%
Conference Champion 13.9% 14.3% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.3% 12.4%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round11.9% 12.0% 6.4%
Second Round2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Neutral) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 48 - 214 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 345   Chicago St. W 75-56 97%    
  Nov 26, 2020 309   N.C. A&T W 82-71 83%    
  Nov 27, 2020 13   @ Illinois L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 13, 2020 110   @ Marshall L 77-82 32%    
  Dec 29, 2020 179   @ Miami (OH) L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 02, 2021 130   @ Ball St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 05, 2021 189   Northern Illinois W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 09, 2021 137   @ Toledo L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 12, 2021 179   Miami (OH) W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 16, 2021 172   Kent St. W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 19, 2021 189   @ Northern Illinois W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 23, 2021 130   Ball St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 26, 2021 238   Western Michigan W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 29, 2021 116   @ Buffalo L 77-82 34%    
  Feb 02, 2021 207   @ Central Michigan W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 06, 2021 160   Eastern Michigan W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 09, 2021 126   Akron W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 238   @ Western Michigan W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 16, 2021 207   Central Michigan W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 20, 2021 146   @ Bowling Green L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 23, 2021 126   @ Akron L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 27, 2021 116   Buffalo W 80-79 55%    
  Mar 02, 2021 172   @ Kent St. L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 05, 2021 146   Bowling Green W 77-73 62%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.2 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.2 9.6 8.7 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 99.0% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 86.2% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
16-4 65.8% 3.5    2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.8% 2.9    1.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 9.0 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 91.3% 68.3% 22.9% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.5%
19-1 0.8% 85.3% 50.9% 34.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.1%
18-2 2.0% 57.7% 42.2% 15.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 26.8%
17-3 3.7% 42.9% 37.6% 5.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.1 8.6%
16-4 5.3% 34.6% 32.9% 1.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 2.5%
15-5 7.3% 22.6% 21.7% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 5.7 1.2%
14-6 8.7% 19.0% 18.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 0.0%
13-7 9.6% 13.8% 13.8% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.3
12-8 10.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.3
11-9 10.0% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.5
10-10 9.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.1
9-11 8.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
8-12 7.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 6.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
6-14 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.1 3.4 2.7 1.5 0.5 87.8 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 96.0 4.0