Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Kentucky 83.8%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 6 +15.4      +8.4 10 +7.0 18 67.9 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Tennessee 76.9%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +14.0      +6.8 26 +7.2 11 63.3 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Florida 72.4%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +13.7      +7.1 22 +6.6 23 62.9 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 LSU 64.2%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 10 - 8 +12.0      +9.9 5 +2.1 109 72.7 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Alabama 61.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 10 - 8 +11.7      +7.8 16 +3.9 71 83.0 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 Arkansas 48.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 9 - 9 +10.1      +5.7 42 +4.4 65 74.8 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 South Carolina 39.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 9 - 9 +9.3      +4.3 64 +5.0 54 78.7 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
60 Auburn 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +9.2      +5.4 46 +3.9 75 70.9 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 Mississippi 40.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 9 - 9 +9.2      +4.2 67 +4.9 57 68.6 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Missouri 36.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 8 - 10 +8.6      +3.7 81 +4.9 58 65.3 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Mississippi St. 31.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 10 +7.9      +5.1 54 +2.8 95 65.0 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 Texas A&M 23.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 10 +7.2      +1.7 131 +5.5 43 61.9 328 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Georgia 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 6 - 12 +5.7      +3.7 82 +2.0 111 73.2 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Vanderbilt 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 5 - 13 +3.2      +2.2 118 +1.1 138 71.0 114 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 3.8 28.6 16.8 12.4 9.5 7.8 6.1 5.1 4.0 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.4
Tennessee 4.5 20.8 15.0 12.2 10.2 9.0 7.7 6.3 5.0 4.4 3.6 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.6
Florida 4.7 18.8 14.1 12.1 10.5 8.6 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.4 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.7
LSU 5.6 11.9 12.0 10.8 10.3 8.9 8.5 7.7 7.1 6.2 5.0 4.3 3.5 2.4 1.5
Alabama 6.0 10.6 11.0 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.9 5.9 4.8 4.2 2.9 1.8
Arkansas 6.9 6.4 8.0 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.5 7.4 6.7 6.1 4.6 2.9
South Carolina 7.3 5.5 7.0 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.0 5.5 3.9
Auburn 7.4 5.0 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.4 7.7 7.8 7.3 5.9 4.3
Mississippi 7.2 5.8 7.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4 6.0 4.0
Missouri 7.8 4.6 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.4 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.1 7.3 5.4
Mississippi St. 8.0 3.6 5.0 6.0 6.4 7.3 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.8 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 6.2
Texas A&M 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.8 5.9 6.0 7.3 7.3 8.4 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.4 8.9 7.5
Georgia 9.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.0 8.2 9.3 10.5 12.6 13.3 13.4
Vanderbilt 11.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.8 6.2 7.9 10.4 13.1 18.5 26.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 11.9 12.4 12.2 10.3 8.0 4.3 1.5
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.9 6.5 8.6 10.7 11.7 12.3 11.5 10.5 8.0 5.2 2.8 0.9
Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.1 9.4 10.6 11.8 12.0 11.5 9.9 7.0 4.9 2.4 0.6
LSU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.2 7.1 8.8 10.6 11.8 11.5 11.2 9.3 7.2 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.3
Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.0 11.6 10.2 8.6 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.1 0.3
Arkansas 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.7 8.2 9.9 10.6 11.5 11.1 10.6 8.3 6.6 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1
South Carolina 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 7.1 9.1 9.9 10.8 11.4 10.5 9.4 8.0 5.9 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
Auburn 9 - 9 0.1 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.1 6.9 9.7 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.7 9.2 7.4 5.4 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mississippi 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.1 6.4 8.5 9.8 10.8 10.9 10.6 9.7 8.1 6.1 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1
Missouri 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.0 8.0 10.0 10.7 11.2 10.9 9.7 8.4 6.6 4.7 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
Mississippi St. 8 - 10 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.4 6.4 8.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 10.8 9.6 8.3 5.7 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas A&M 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.2 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.7 11.9 10.4 8.8 7.0 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia 6 - 12 0.9 3.0 6.0 8.1 10.7 11.6 12.4 11.5 9.9 8.7 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 5 - 13 2.7 7.0 10.4 13.2 14.1 13.2 11.3 9.2 6.8 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 28.6% 20.0 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 20.8% 13.6 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.1
Florida 18.8% 12.2 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
LSU 11.9% 7.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Alabama 10.6% 6.5 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 6.4% 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
South Carolina 5.5% 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Auburn 5.0% 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 5.8% 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Mississippi St. 3.6% 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 1.2% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 83.8% 21.3% 62.5% 2   14.4 13.0 9.8 8.7 8.1 7.3 6.1 5.0 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 16.2 79.5%
Tennessee 76.9% 16.3% 60.7% 6   8.1 8.5 7.6 8.0 7.3 6.8 7.5 6.6 5.5 4.4 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.1 72.4%
Florida 72.4% 15.1% 57.3% 6   7.0 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.0 7.1 6.4 5.3 3.9 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 27.6 67.5%
LSU 64.2% 9.9% 54.3% 9   3.6 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.8 7.0 6.9 6.4 5.8 4.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 60.2%
Alabama 61.5% 9.7% 51.8% 8   4.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.2 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 38.5 57.3%
Arkansas 48.3% 5.7% 42.6% 11   1.4 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.6 5.8 6.5 5.9 4.9 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 51.7 45.2%
South Carolina 39.8% 5.1% 34.7% 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 3.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 60.2 36.5%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi 40.4% 4.5% 35.9% 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.6 37.6%
Missouri 36.9% 4.2% 32.7% 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.5 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 63.1 34.1%
Mississippi St. 31.6% 3.4% 28.2% 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.7 3.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.4 29.2%
Texas A&M 23.8% 2.7% 21.1% 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 76.2 21.7%
Georgia 18.5% 1.5% 17.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.5 17.2%
Vanderbilt 7.6% 0.6% 7.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4 7.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 83.8% 2.9% 82.4% 63.4% 38.1% 20.8% 11.1% 5.8% 3.0%
Tennessee 76.9% 3.0% 75.4% 53.7% 29.3% 14.9% 7.5% 3.7% 1.8%
Florida 72.4% 3.1% 71.0% 49.6% 26.9% 14.0% 6.8% 3.3% 1.6%
LSU 64.2% 3.7% 62.4% 39.9% 19.1% 8.9% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Alabama 61.5% 4.6% 59.1% 39.0% 19.1% 8.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8%
Arkansas 48.3% 3.9% 46.3% 26.6% 11.1% 4.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
South Carolina 39.8% 4.6% 37.4% 21.5% 8.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 40.4% 3.5% 38.6% 21.1% 8.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Missouri 36.9% 3.9% 34.8% 19.5% 7.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 31.6% 3.4% 29.7% 15.5% 5.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
Texas A&M 23.8% 3.1% 22.1% 11.2% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgia 18.5% 3.0% 16.9% 7.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 7.6% 1.3% 6.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 8.1 22.2 32.6 24.3 9.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.2 2.1 10.8 26.1 32.4 20.5 6.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 3.7 0.2 2.7 13.0 27.6 30.9 18.3 6.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 90.8% 1.8 9.2 30.9 35.5 18.5 5.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 63.7% 0.9 36.3 43.3 17.4 2.8 0.2 0.0
Final Four 36.7% 0.4 63.4 32.2 4.3 0.2
Final Game 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.2 0.7
Champion 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.2