Preseason Rankings
LSU
Southeastern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#78
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 8.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 18.9% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 30.2% 30.5% 8.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.2% 64.5% 34.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.2% 60.6% 33.2%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.9
.500 or above 84.3% 84.6% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.5% 71.7% 49.6%
Conference Champion 11.9% 11.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.7% 9.2%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 0.3%
First Round62.4% 62.7% 34.8%
Second Round39.9% 40.1% 17.7%
Sweet Sixteen19.1% 19.2% 4.9%
Elite Eight8.9% 9.0% 1.6%
Final Four4.0% 4.1% 0.8%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.1%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Neutral) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 26 - 310 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 44 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 331   SIU Edwardsville W 90-66 99%    
  Nov 28, 2020 52   @ Saint Louis L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 30, 2020 319   SE Louisiana W 95-70 99%    
  Dec 06, 2020 109   Louisiana Tech W 82-71 84%    
  Dec 12, 2020 97   South Florida W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 16, 2020 312   New Orleans W 94-70 98%    
  Dec 19, 2020 95   North Texas W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 22, 2020 99   Virginia Commonwealth W 82-72 80%    
  Dec 29, 2020 78   Texas A&M W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 02, 2021 22   @ Florida L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 05, 2021 94   Georgia W 86-77 79%    
  Jan 09, 2021 66   @ Missouri W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 13, 2021 46   Arkansas W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 16, 2021 59   South Carolina W 86-80 69%    
  Jan 19, 2021 32   Alabama W 89-86 60%    
  Jan 23, 2021 11   @ Kentucky L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 26, 2021 78   @ Texas A&M W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 14   Texas Tech W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 03, 2021 32   @ Alabama L 86-89 40%    
  Feb 05, 2021 22   Florida W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 10, 2021 72   @ Mississippi St. W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 12, 2021 20   Tennessee W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 17, 2021 61   @ Mississippi L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 20, 2021 60   Auburn W 83-77 68%    
  Feb 23, 2021 94   @ Georgia W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 27, 2021 46   @ Arkansas L 81-82 47%    
  Mar 02, 2021 120   Vanderbilt W 86-74 84%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.4 2.8 1.3 0.3 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.2 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.8 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.2 7.1 8.8 10.6 11.8 11.5 11.2 9.3 7.2 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.3% 1.3    1.3 0.1
16-2 91.8% 2.8    2.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 66.4% 3.4    2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.5% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.6% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 7.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.3% 40.7% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 2.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.2% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.2% 99.9% 22.9% 76.9% 3.9 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 9.3% 99.2% 16.8% 82.4% 5.5 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-6 11.2% 97.2% 13.1% 84.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
11-7 11.5% 89.9% 7.4% 82.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.2 89.1%
10-8 11.8% 74.5% 4.2% 70.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.0 73.4%
9-9 10.6% 50.8% 3.0% 47.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.2 49.3%
8-10 8.8% 22.8% 1.6% 21.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.8 21.5%
7-11 7.1% 5.6% 0.7% 4.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 5.0%
6-12 5.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.6%
5-13 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.2% 9.9% 54.3% 6.6 3.6 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.8 7.0 6.9 6.4 5.8 4.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 60.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.9 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 16.7 83.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3