IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.6	#235
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.5	#157
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.9	#227

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	11.2%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.5	15.1

.500 or above	53.0%	73.6%	36.0%
.500 or above in Conference	33.6%	53.2%	17.5%
Conference Champion	3.0%	5.7%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	9.1%	1.9%	14.9%

First Four	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%
First Round	6.9%	10.4%	4.0%
Second Round	0.5%	0.9%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 4	6 - 3	7 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Jan 02, 2021	274	@ Loyola Maryland	L	76-77	45%
Jan 03, 2021	274	Loyola Maryland	W	79-74	66%
Jan 16, 2021	213	@ Navy	L	63-67	36%
Jan 17, 2021	213	Navy	W	66-64	57%
Jan 23, 2021	274	Loyola Maryland	W	79-74	65%
Jan 24, 2021	274	@ Loyola Maryland	L	76-77	45%
Jan 30, 2021	220	Lafayette	W	73-71	58%
Jan 31, 2021	220	@ Lafayette	L	70-74	38%
Feb 06, 2021	213	Navy	W	66-64	57%
Feb 07, 2021	213	@ Navy	L	63-67	37%
Feb 20, 2021	274	Loyola Maryland	W	79-74	64%
Feb 21, 2021	274	@ Loyola Maryland	L	76-77	46%
Projected Record						6 - 6	6 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	0.7						3.0	1st
2nd								0.0	0.7	2.4	3.8	2.3	0.7						10.0	2nd
3rd							0.0	1.1	4.3	4.7	2.2	0.6	0.0						13.0	3rd
4th					0.0	0.1	1.3	4.6	5.1	1.9	0.2								13.2	4th
5th					0.1	1.3	5.0	5.1	1.4	0.1	0.0								13.0	5th
6th			0.0	0.2	1.3	4.5	4.9	1.2	0.1										12.3	6th
7th		0.0	0.2	1.4	4.3	4.6	1.5	0.0	0.0										12.0	7th
8th	0.0	0.4	1.7	3.8	3.5	1.5	0.1												10.9	8th
9th	0.2	1.5	2.9	2.7	0.9	0.2													8.4	9th
10th	1.0	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.1														4.2	10th

Total	1.3	3.4	5.9	8.5	10.2	12.2	12.9	12.1	11.7	9.2	7.0	4.3	1.4							Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4	47.8%	0.7		0.4	0.3	0.0
11-5	31.4%	1.3		0.6	0.6	0.1
10-6	10.8%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
9-7	2.0%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
8-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0

Total	3.0%	3.0		1.2	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4	1.4%		36.9%	36.3%	0.6%	12.6					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0		0.9		0.9%
11-5	4.3%		28.2%	28.2%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	3.1		0.0%
10-6	7.0%		21.3%	21.3%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	5.5
9-7	9.2%		15.7%	15.7%		14.9														0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	7.8
8-8	11.7%		9.0%	9.0%		15.2														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	10.6
7-9	12.1%		7.8%	7.8%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	11.2
6-10	12.9%		3.6%	3.6%		15.7																0.1	0.3	12.4
5-11	12.2%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.2	11.9
4-12	10.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
3-13	8.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.4
2-14	5.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
1-15	3.4%																							3.4
0-16	1.3%																							1.3

Total	100%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	14.7					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.7	2.4	2.4	92.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	12.7				0.2		0.4	0.2	1.9	2.3	4.0	11.0	18.8	24.5	31.2	5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.5%	1.6%	12.0												1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%
Lose Out	1.0%