Preseason Rankings
Navy
Patriot League
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#213
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.8#346
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 13.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 58.3% 69.4% 44.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 74.1% 60.1%
Conference Champion 18.4% 22.2% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.4% 3.7%
First Four2.8% 2.6% 3.1%
First Round9.8% 12.4% 6.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 411 - 513 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 198   George Washington W 64-62 56%    
  Nov 27, 2020 39   @ Maryland L 55-73 5%    
  Nov 28, 2020 257   Mount St. Mary's W 61-59 58%    
  Dec 01, 2020 88   @ Georgetown L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 16, 2020 323   Morgan St. W 71-60 83%    
  Dec 21, 2020 197   Delaware W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 02, 2021 223   Bucknell W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 03, 2021 223   @ Bucknell L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 09, 2021 274   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 10, 2021 274   Loyola Maryland W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 16, 2021 235   American W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 17, 2021 235   @ American L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 23, 2021 289   Army W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 24, 2021 289   Army W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 274   Loyola Maryland W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 31, 2021 274   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 235   @ American L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 07, 2021 235   American W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 220   Lafayette W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 14, 2021 220   @ Lafayette L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 20, 2021 289   @ Army W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 21, 2021 289   @ Army W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 10 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 4.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.0 5.9 5.7 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.6 5.8 4.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.6 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.0 7.4 9.7 10.9 11.5 11.7 10.3 9.4 6.7 4.5 2.3 0.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-1 90.8% 2.1    1.8 0.3
14-2 77.4% 3.4    2.7 0.8 0.0
13-3 61.9% 4.2    3.0 1.1 0.1
12-4 42.4% 4.0    2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 25.3% 2.6    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 9.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 18.4% 18.4 11.8 5.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 55.2% 52.3% 2.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6.0%
15-1 2.3% 45.1% 44.8% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.6%
14-2 4.5% 30.8% 30.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 3.1
13-3 6.7% 25.2% 25.2% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 5.0
12-4 9.4% 17.8% 17.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 7.7
11-5 10.3% 14.9% 14.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 8.7
10-6 11.7% 10.4% 10.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 10.5
9-7 11.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 10.6
8-8 10.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 10.2
7-9 9.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.4
6-10 7.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
5-11 6.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.9
4-12 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-13 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.0 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.5 90.5 4.8 4.8