IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.0	#220
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#247
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#191

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.4	#272

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.0%	14.7%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.3	15.1

.500 or above	57.2%	74.4%	40.1%
.500 or above in Conference	62.2%	79.4%	45.2%
Conference Champion	16.6%	26.1%	7.2%
Last Place in Conference	4.2%	0.8%	7.5%

First Four	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
First Round	10.2%	13.8%	6.5%
Second Round	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 4
Quad 4	8 - 4	10 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Jan 02, 2021	287	@ Lehigh	W	73-72	50%
Jan 03, 2021	287	Lehigh	W	76-70	71%
Jan 09, 2021	223	@ Bucknell	L	70-73	40%
Jan 10, 2021	223	Bucknell	W	73-70	61%
Jan 16, 2021	274	Loyola Maryland	W	79-74	68%
Jan 17, 2021	274	@ Loyola Maryland	L	76-77	49%
Jan 23, 2021	181	Boston University	W	71-70	50%
Jan 24, 2021	181	Boston University	W	71-70	50%
Jan 30, 2021	235	@ American	L	71-73	42%
Jan 31, 2021	235	American	W	74-70	62%
Feb 06, 2021	287	Lehigh	W	76-70	68%
Feb 07, 2021	287	@ Lehigh	W	73-72	50%
Feb 13, 2021	213	@ Navy	L	63-66	38%
Feb 14, 2021	213	Navy	W	66-63	58%
Feb 20, 2021	223	Bucknell	W	73-70	60%
Feb 21, 2021	223	@ Bucknell	L	70-73	40%
Projected Record						9 - 7	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.2	1.0	2.3	3.4	3.7	3.2	2.2	0.6		16.6	1st
2nd								0.0	0.5	2.5	4.5	5.0	3.7	2.3	1.0	0.2			19.8	2nd
3rd							0.0	0.9	4.1	5.6	4.3	2.2	0.7	0.3	0.0				18.1	3rd
4th						0.0	0.7	3.7	4.5	1.9	0.6	0.1							11.5	4th
5th					0.0	0.4	3.2	4.1	1.4	0.3	0.0								9.4	5th
6th				0.0	0.4	2.0	3.2	0.9	0.0										6.5	6th
7th				0.1	1.7	2.9	1.1	0.1											5.9	7th
8th		0.0	0.2	1.3	2.5	1.1	0.1												5.3	8th
9th	0.0	0.4	1.3	2.1	1.1	0.1													5.1	9th
10th	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1														2.0	10th

Total	0.3	1.0	2.2	3.8	5.8	6.6	8.4	9.7	10.6	10.4	10.3	9.5	7.8	6.3	4.2	2.4	0.6			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.1
15-1	90.1%	2.2		1.9	0.3
14-2	76.6%	3.2		2.5	0.7	0.0
13-3	58.4%	3.7		2.5	1.0	0.1
12-4	43.8%	3.4		1.9	1.3	0.2	0.0
11-5	24.0%	2.3		0.9	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
10-6	9.8%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
9-7	1.7%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	16.6%	16.6		10.6	4.9	0.9	0.1	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.6%		62.6%	56.2%	6.4%	10.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		14.6%
15-1	2.4%		41.7%	41.4%	0.3%	13.0											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.1		1.4		0.6%
14-2	4.2%		32.0%	32.0%		13.8													0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	2.8
13-3	6.3%		27.5%	27.5%		14.3													0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.1	4.5
12-4	7.8%		20.0%	20.0%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.3	6.3
11-5	9.5%		17.8%	17.8%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.9	0.5	7.8
10-6	10.3%		12.8%	12.8%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	9.0
9-7	10.4%		8.1%	8.1%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	9.6
8-8	10.6%		4.8%	4.8%		15.8																0.1	0.4	10.1
7-9	9.7%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																0.0	0.4	9.3
6-10	8.4%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.2	8.2
5-11	6.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
4-12	5.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
3-13	3.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
2-14	2.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
1-15	1.0%																							1.0
0-16	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		11.0%	10.9%	0.0%	14.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.4	2.3	3.5	3.2	89.0		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	10.0			0.3	2.5	0.6	9.7	11.7	2.5	12.2	8.1	15.6	20.6	16.1	0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	10.2%	11.0											10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	16.6%	12.7												5.5	11.0
Lose Out	0.3%