IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.7	#54
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.6	#102
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.7	#27

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.0	#91

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%
Top 2 Seed	2.2%	2.2%	0.8%
Top 4 Seed	5.9%	6.0%	0.9%
Top 6 Seed	10.5%	10.7%	1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	43.2%	43.7%	18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	34.9%	35.3%	12.8%
Average Seed	8.6	8.6	9.8

.500 or above	89.1%	89.5%	67.3%
.500 or above in Conference	86.9%	87.1%	74.4%
Conference Champion	13.7%	13.9%	4.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.9%	0.8%	5.0%

First Four	5.7%	5.7%	3.1%
First Round	40.6%	41.1%	17.4%
Second Round	21.4%	21.7%	8.8%
Sweet Sixteen	8.4%	8.5%	3.3%
Elite Eight	3.7%	3.7%	1.0%
Final Four	1.5%	1.6%	0.9%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
National Champion	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 2	4 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 2	10 - 8
Quad 4	6 - 0	16 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	312	New Orleans	W	90-68	98%
Nov 28, 2020	291	Utah Valley	W	86-66	97%
Dec 01, 2020	57	USC	W	76-75	51%
Dec 12, 2020	67	Utah	W	77-73	65%
Dec 18, 2020	36	@ San Diego St.	L	69-73	34%
Dec 23, 2020	256	Weber St.	W	82-67	91%
Dec 31, 2020	108	@ Pepperdine	W	82-80	58%
Jan 02, 2021	159	@ San Diego	W	80-73	73%
Jan 07, 2021	138	Pacific	W	76-65	84%
Jan 14, 2021	74	@ St. Mary's	L	71-72	47%
Jan 16, 2021	91	@ San Francisco	W	77-76	53%
Jan 21, 2021	263	Portland	W	85-66	94%
Jan 23, 2021	108	Pepperdine	W	85-77	75%
Jan 30, 2021	91	San Francisco	W	80-73	72%
Feb 04, 2021	263	@ Portland	W	82-69	86%
Feb 06, 2021	1	@ Gonzaga	L	76-89	15%
Feb 11, 2021	74	St. Mary's	W	74-69	66%
Feb 13, 2021	159	San Diego	W	83-70	85%
Feb 18, 2021	138	@ Pacific	W	73-68	67%
Feb 20, 2021	154	@ Loyola Marymount	W	73-67	70%
Feb 25, 2021	125	Santa Clara	W	85-75	80%
Feb 27, 2021	1	Gonzaga	L	79-86	29%
Projected Record						15 - 7	11 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	1.1	3.4	4.6	3.6	0.8		13.7	1st
2nd										0.2	2.2	7.6	11.2	8.4	3.1				32.8	2nd
3rd									0.3	2.8	7.4	6.4	2.4	0.2	0.0				19.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.2	2.3	5.7	3.6	0.8	0.0						12.6	4th
5th							0.1	1.5	4.0	2.5	0.3								8.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.9	2.9	1.5	0.1									5.5	6th
7th					0.1	0.7	1.9	1.1	0.1										3.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1											2.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1												1.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0													0.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	1.0	2.1	3.7	5.7	8.3	11.3	13.5	14.9	14.8	12.0	7.7	3.6	0.8			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
15-1	100.0%	3.6		2.9	0.7
14-2	59.6%	4.6		2.7	1.9	0.0
13-3	28.4%	3.4		1.3	1.7	0.4
12-4	7.6%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0
11-5	1.1%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0				0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	13.7%	13.7		7.9	4.9	0.8	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.8%		100.0%	61.9%	38.1%	2.2		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-1	3.6%		99.9%	38.9%	61.1%	4.0		0.4	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.9%
14-2	7.7%		96.7%	30.4%	66.3%	6.3		0.1	0.4	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.3		95.2%
13-3	12.0%		88.7%	23.1%	65.6%	8.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.3	2.2	1.7	1.2	0.6	0.0				1.4		85.2%
12-4	14.8%		66.2%	16.0%	50.2%	9.9				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.4	2.3	1.5	0.2	0.0			5.0		59.7%
11-5	14.9%		42.4%	10.9%	31.6%	10.8						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.8	1.7	0.3	0.0			8.6		35.4%
10-6	13.5%		22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	11.4							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	0.3	0.1			10.4		16.3%
9-7	11.3%		8.8%	3.7%	5.1%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0			10.3		5.3%
8-8	8.3%		4.7%	2.7%	1.9%	12.2											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.9		2.0%
7-9	5.7%		2.6%	2.5%	0.2%	13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.5		0.2%
6-10	3.7%		0.5%	0.5%		15.2													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	3.6
5-11	2.1%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8															0.0		0.0	2.1
4-12	1.0%		0.9%	0.9%		15.0																0.0		1.0
3-13	0.5%																							0.5
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		43.2%	12.8%	30.4%	8.6		0.8	1.4	1.4	2.3	2.2	2.4	3.0	3.6	5.5	6.5	6.9	5.7	1.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	56.8		34.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.6	50.9	40.0	9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.6	38.2	58.8	2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	65.5	3.4	3.4	27.6