IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+19.3	#1
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.7	#32
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+12.3	#1

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.0	#20

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	6.0%	8.2%	2.9%
#1 Seed	25.3%	32.7%	14.9%
Top 2 Seed	43.6%	54.3%	28.9%
Top 4 Seed	63.2%	74.0%	48.4%
Top 6 Seed	75.0%	83.8%	62.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	95.8%	98.3%	92.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	87.7%	94.4%	80.7%
Average Seed	4.0	3.3	4.9

.500 or above	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%
.500 or above in Conference	99.8%	100.0%	99.6%
Conference Champion	81.7%	85.8%	76.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.8%	0.4%	1.4%
First Round	95.5%	98.2%	91.7%
Second Round	81.1%	87.5%	72.1%
Sweet Sixteen	56.3%	64.2%	45.5%
Elite Eight	37.1%	44.1%	27.3%
Final Four	23.7%	28.4%	17.1%
Championship Game	14.5%	18.1%	9.6%
National Champion	8.8%	11.2%	5.4%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 2	2 - 2
Quad 1b	2 - 1	4 - 3
Quad 2	5 - 1	9 - 3
Quad 3	8 - 0	17 - 4
Quad 4	9 - 0	26 - 4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	4	Kansas	W	78-76	58%
Nov 27, 2020	60	Auburn	W	86-76	82%
Dec 02, 2020	20	Tennessee	W	77-72	68%
Dec 05, 2020	2	Baylor	W	77-76	54%
Dec 08, 2020	340	Tarleton St.	W	98-61	100.0%
Dec 10, 2020	262	Southern	W	90-62	99%
Dec 12, 2020	266	Northern Arizona	W	91-63	99%
Dec 14, 2020	322	Idaho	W	95-62	99.7%
Dec 19, 2020	9	Iowa	W	87-83	62%
Dec 21, 2020	283	Northwestern St.	W	99-70	99%
Dec 29, 2020	337	Dixie St.	W	88-51	99.9%
Jan 02, 2021	91	San Francisco	W	87-71	92%
Jan 07, 2021	125	Santa Clara	W	93-73	96%
Jan 09, 2021	263	@ Portland	W	90-68	97%
Jan 14, 2021	108	Pepperdine	W	94-76	93%
Jan 16, 2021	74	@ St. Mary's	W	79-70	76%
Jan 23, 2021	138	Pacific	W	84-63	96%
Jan 28, 2021	159	@ San Diego	W	88-72	92%
Jan 30, 2021	108	@ Pepperdine	W	91-79	84%
Feb 04, 2021	154	Loyola Marymount	W	84-62	97%
Feb 06, 2021	54	BYU	W	89-76	85%
Feb 11, 2021	125	@ Santa Clara	W	90-76	87%
Feb 13, 2021	91	@ San Francisco	W	84-74	81%
Feb 18, 2021	74	St. Mary's	W	82-67	88%
Feb 20, 2021	159	San Diego	W	91-69	96%
Feb 25, 2021	138	@ Pacific	W	81-66	89%
Feb 27, 2021	54	@ BYU	W	86-79	71%
Projected Record						23 - 4	14 - 2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.3	2.4	8.8	18.7	28.0	23.5		81.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.8	4.1	4.2	2.0	0.0			12.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.9	0.1					3.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0						1.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0									0.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0										0.1	7th
8th							0.0	0.0											0.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.0													0.0	9th
10th																				10th

Total					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	3.8	7.5	13.2	20.7	28.0	23.5			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	23.5		23.5
15-1	100.0%	28.0		26.9	1.1
14-2	90.4%	18.7		15.2	3.4	0.0
13-3	67.0%	8.8		5.0	3.3	0.5
12-4	32.0%	2.4		0.8	1.1	0.5	0.0
11-5	7.2%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	81.7%	81.7		71.5	9.1	1.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	23.5%		100.0%	84.1%	15.9%	1.5		14.7	6.5	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0									100.0%
15-1	28.0%		99.8%	74.3%	25.5%	2.5		9.1	8.4	4.4	3.1	1.4	0.8	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.4%
14-2	20.7%		99.2%	64.3%	34.9%	4.3		1.4	3.1	3.5	4.1	3.2	1.8	1.5	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.2		97.7%
13-3	13.2%		96.8%	51.1%	45.8%	6.6		0.1	0.3	0.7	1.7	1.7	1.7	2.0	1.6	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1					0.4		93.5%
12-4	7.5%		89.5%	41.1%	48.4%	8.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.4	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0				0.8		82.2%
11-5	3.8%		75.9%	35.1%	40.8%	9.7					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.9		62.9%
10-6	1.9%		52.6%	24.0%	28.6%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.9		37.6%
9-7	0.9%		38.0%	24.3%	13.7%	10.9							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.6		18.1%
8-8	0.3%		17.2%	12.1%	5.1%	11.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2		5.8%
7-9	0.1%		13.6%	0.8%	12.8%	12.5													0.0	0.0				0.1		12.9%
6-10	0.1%																							0.1
5-11	0.0%																							0.0
4-12	0.0%																							0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		95.8%	65.8%	30.0%	4.0		25.3	18.3	10.1	9.5	6.8	5.0	5.1	4.4	4.3	3.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.0			4.2		87.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	5.6%	100.0%	1.2	78.9	19.4	1.6	0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.4%	100.0%	1.4	60.6	35.4	4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%	100.0%	1.4	63.9	35.2	0.9