IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.3	#184
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#315
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.0	#174

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.5%	19.1%	10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.4	13.9	14.7

.500 or above	55.9%	76.9%	48.9%
.500 or above in Conference	64.6%	77.6%	60.3%
Conference Champion	13.9%	21.9%	11.3%
Last Place in Conference	6.7%	2.8%	7.9%

First Four	1.8%	1.5%	1.9%
First Round	11.8%	18.5%	9.6%
Second Round	1.0%	2.1%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Neutral) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 7	5 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 4	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	91	San Francisco	L	66-73	25%
Nov 25, 2020	85	St. Bonaventure	L	64-72	23%
Nov 26, 2020	93	Rhode Island	L	68-75	26%
Nov 27, 2020	136	Stephen F. Austin	L	71-74	40%
Dec 03, 2020	327	Coppin St.	W	79-66	89%
Dec 05, 2020	202	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	67-69	43%
Dec 07, 2020	198	George Washington	W	69-65	63%
Dec 16, 2020	157	La Salle	W	71-69	56%
Dec 19, 2020	323	Morgan St.	W	77-64	87%
Dec 22, 2020	123	@ George Mason	L	65-72	27%
Jan 02, 2021	249	James Madison	W	79-72	73%
Jan 04, 2021	249	@ James Madison	W	76-75	54%
Jan 09, 2021	215	@ Elon	L	68-69	48%
Jan 10, 2021	215	@ Elon	L	68-69	48%
Jan 16, 2021	253	UNC Wilmington	W	73-66	73%
Jan 17, 2021	253	UNC Wilmington	W	73-66	73%
Jan 23, 2021	152	@ Hofstra	L	68-73	34%
Jan 24, 2021	152	@ Hofstra	L	68-73	33%
Jan 30, 2021	254	William & Mary	W	73-66	73%
Jan 31, 2021	254	William & Mary	W	73-66	73%
Feb 06, 2021	162	@ College of Charleston	L	65-69	36%
Feb 07, 2021	162	@ College of Charleston	L	65-69	37%
Feb 13, 2021	163	Northeastern	W	68-66	56%
Feb 14, 2021	163	Northeastern	W	68-66	56%
Feb 20, 2021	190	@ Drexel	L	69-71	43%
Feb 21, 2021	190	@ Drexel	L	69-71	43%
Feb 27, 2021	197	Delaware	W	73-69	63%
Feb 28, 2021	197	Delaware	W	73-69	62%
Projected Record						15 - 13	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.2	1.0	2.5	3.8	3.3	2.1	0.8	0.2		13.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.7	4.2	4.4	2.3	0.7	0.1				13.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	2.5	5.2	3.8	1.4	0.2						13.3	3rd
4th									0.2	2.1	5.2	3.1	0.6	0.1							11.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.3	5.0	3.3	0.5	0.0								11.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.0	4.8	2.9	0.4	0.0									10.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.7	4.1	2.4	0.5	0.0										8.9	7th
8th				0.0	0.3	1.7	3.2	1.9	0.4												7.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.0	1.3	0.3	0.0												5.7	9th
10th	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0													4.1	10th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.5	3.1	4.6	6.5	8.5	10.1	10.7	11.7	10.8	9.7	8.3	6.3	4.0	2.2	0.8	0.2			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
16-2	96.0%	2.1		1.9	0.2
15-3	83.5%	3.3		2.6	0.7	0.0
14-4	60.1%	3.8		2.1	1.4	0.2	0.0
13-5	30.3%	2.5		1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1
12-6	10.3%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.9%	13.9		8.8	3.9	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		82.1%	73.9%	8.3%	10.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		31.6%
17-1	0.8%		61.7%	49.3%	12.4%	12.1								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.3		24.4%
16-2	2.2%		49.5%	47.2%	2.3%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.1		4.3%
15-3	4.0%		33.4%	33.0%	0.4%	13.5											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	2.6		0.6%
14-4	6.3%		30.4%	30.4%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.1	4.4
13-5	8.3%		23.5%	23.5%	0.0%	14.4													0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.2	6.3		0.0%
12-6	9.7%		19.5%	19.5%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.4	7.8
11-7	10.8%		11.3%	11.3%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	9.6
10-8	11.7%		9.5%	9.5%		15.5															0.1	0.4	0.6	10.6
9-9	10.7%		6.5%	6.5%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.5	10.0
8-10	10.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.7
7-11	8.5%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.3
6-12	6.5%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	6.4
5-13	4.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
4-14	3.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
3-15	1.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
2-16	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.5%	12.3%	0.2%	14.4		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	2.0	3.0	3.3	3.1	87.5		0.2%