Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#250
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.5% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 39.6% 45.1% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 46.3% 50.2% 31.0%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 12.0% 22.1%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round6.1% 7.0% 2.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 80.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 49 - 512 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 314   High Point W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 03, 2020 183   Mercer W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 06, 2020 5   @ Duke L 63-87 1%    
  Dec 08, 2020 326   @ Howard W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 12, 2020 23   @ North Carolina L 64-84 3%    
  Dec 15, 2020 258   Campbell W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 19, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 02, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 03, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 09, 2021 184   Towson W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 10, 2021 184   Towson W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 16, 2021 249   @ James Madison L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 17, 2021 249   @ James Madison L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 190   Drexel W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 24, 2021 190   Drexel W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 30, 2021 197   @ Delaware L 70-75 36%    
  Jan 31, 2021 197   @ Delaware L 70-75 36%    
  Feb 06, 2021 253   UNC Wilmington W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 07, 2021 253   UNC Wilmington W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 162   @ College of Charleston L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 14, 2021 162   @ College of Charleston L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 18, 2021 254   William & Mary W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 254   @ William & Mary L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 27, 2021 152   Hofstra L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 28, 2021 152   Hofstra L 71-73 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 2.8 0.3 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.2 9.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.1 6.0 8.2 9.9 10.9 11.0 10.6 9.7 8.6 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 96.7% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 86.1% 1.4    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 62.3% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 34.1% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 66.7% 55.6% 11.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0%
17-1 0.3% 60.0% 57.1% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6.7%
16-2 0.9% 39.5% 39.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
15-3 1.7% 28.9% 28.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.2
14-4 3.2% 26.3% 26.3% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
13-5 4.6% 18.8% 18.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.7
12-6 6.7% 15.7% 15.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 5.7
11-7 8.6% 11.0% 11.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 7.7
10-8 9.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 9.0
9-9 10.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.1
8-10 11.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.7
7-11 10.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.7
6-12 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.8
5-13 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
4-14 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-15 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.1 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%