IUPUI
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#300
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#247
Pace73.9#76
Improvement-0.4#201

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#291
First Shot-1.8#219
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#310
Layup/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#79
Freethrows-3.3#330
Improvement+0.7#112

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#286
First Shot-4.9#311
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#121
Layups/Dunks-9.3#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#121
Freethrows+1.8#73
Improvement-1.1#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 9.3% 25.3% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 8.7% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.5% 10.0% 29.2%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 8.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 45 - 86 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 12, 2020 303   Tennessee St. W 69-66 58%     1 - 0 -7.9 -12.2 +3.9
  Jan 01, 2021 185   Cleveland St. L 62-65 31%     1 - 1 0 - 1 -6.8 -11.4 +4.7
  Jan 02, 2021 185   Cleveland St. L 49-59 31%     1 - 2 0 - 2 -13.8 -23.1 +9.3
  Jan 08, 2021 225   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-94 27%     1 - 3 0 - 3 -26.3 -8.3 -16.1
  Jan 09, 2021 225   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 63-71 27%     1 - 4 0 - 4 -10.3 -12.5 +2.5
  Jan 15, 2021 217   @ Northern Kentucky W 74-69 26%     2 - 4 1 - 4 +2.9 +7.2 -3.8
  Jan 16, 2021 217   @ Northern Kentucky W 65-63 26%     3 - 4 2 - 4 -0.1 -7.3 +7.3
  Jan 22, 2021 72   Wright St. L 65-95 9%     3 - 5 2 - 5 -24.0 -7.5 -14.8
  Jan 23, 2021 72   Wright St. L 68-83 9%    
  Jan 29, 2021 225   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 30, 2021 225   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-73 46%    
  Feb 05, 2021 256   @ Green Bay L 73-78 29%    
  Feb 06, 2021 256   @ Green Bay L 73-78 28%    
  Feb 12, 2021 212   Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 43%    
  Feb 13, 2021 212   Illinois-Chicago L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 19, 2021 266   @ Youngstown St. L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 266   @ Youngstown St. L 72-77 29%    
Projected Record 6 - 11 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.3 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 5.0 0.6 9.0 5th
6th 1.3 8.7 2.0 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.5 7.9 5.9 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 10.0 9.9 0.4 22.0 8th
9th 1.4 6.3 10.2 1.7 19.6 9th
10th 3.7 5.5 2.8 0.0 12.0 10th
Total 5.1 13.3 23.4 20.9 18.6 11.4 5.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.3
9-9 1.7% 8.6% 8.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.5
8-10 5.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.0
7-11 11.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 11.2
6-12 18.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 18.4
5-13 20.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.8
4-14 23.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.4
3-15 13.3% 13.3
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5%