Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
66 Wright St. 69.8%   13   11 - 4 9 - 3 18 - 5 14 - 4 +8.5      +3.7 83 +4.8 57 76.8 37 +2.3 139 +1.0 3
189 Cleveland St. 8.3%   10 - 5 8 - 2 15 - 8 12 - 4 -2.1      -3.6 264 +1.4 133 66.7 251 +4.7 108 +6.4 1
204 Detroit Mercy 3.1%   4 - 8 3 - 5 8 - 12 5 - 7 -3.1      +1.4 136 -4.5 294 70.1 168 -5.7 252 -6.9 8
214 Northern Kentucky 2.2%   7 - 8 1 - 5 10 - 13 4 - 10 -3.8      -1.3 201 -2.5 240 64.3 301 -5.0 236 -16.8 10
219 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.9%   6 - 5 5 - 1 10 - 9 9 - 5 -4.0      -3.0 252 -0.9 197 71.2 137 -2.9 197 +5.7 2
225 Illinois-Chicago 3.4%   8 - 5 3 - 1 12 - 9 7 - 5 -4.3      -5.5 309 +1.2 138 71.5 130 -1.3 179 +0.6 4
236 Green Bay 3.0%   5 - 11 3 - 7 9 - 15 7 - 11 -4.9      +0.5 156 -5.4 309 68.8 209 -6.8 268 -7.6 9
246 Oakland 2.5%   6 - 13 6 - 6 9 - 18 8 - 8 -5.4      -0.7 187 -4.7 298 72.5 104 -3.0 201 -2.1 5
250 Youngstown St. 2.5%   5 - 8 4 - 8 9 - 12 6 - 10 -5.6      +1.9 122 -7.5 337 65.5 277 -5.4 246 -6.0 6
306 IUPUI 0.5%   3 - 6 2 - 6 6 - 11 5 - 11 -9.3      -4.5 286 -4.8 301 73.9 74 -5.8 255 -6.7 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wright St. 1.0 96.4 3.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 1.9 11.6 83.1 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 8.0 0.0 1.1 4.4 9.9 14.9 31.3 26.1 12.3
Northern Kentucky 8.3 0.0 1.1 3.1 4.3 6.8 11.6 20.4 23.4 29.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.4 0.7 10.0 61.2 14.6 7.8 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 5.7 0.0 0.6 9.8 21.8 16.7 16.0 17.1 9.7 5.4 3.0
Green Bay 5.2 0.0 2.7 14.2 26.2 17.3 15.2 12.8 6.7 3.3 1.6
Oakland 4.2 3.0 26.8 31.7 24.2 11.2 3.1 0.0
Youngstown St. 5.7 3.7 18.6 24.3 24.9 15.6 8.1 3.9 1.0
IUPUI 7.8 0.0 2.6 5.4 6.6 8.9 12.3 21.3 22.4 20.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wright St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.2 17.1 36.7 39.9
Cleveland St. 12 - 6 0.7 4.3 13.0 24.2 29.0 21.3 7.7
Detroit Mercy 5 - 13 13.6 31.3 32.3 18.1 4.7
Northern Kentucky 4 - 14 2.3 9.3 19.7 25.4 22.4 13.6 5.6 1.5 0.2
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9 - 9 0.8 4.1 12.1 22.3 26.5 21.7 10.4 1.9 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 11 1.5 7.1 16.7 24.4 24.3 16.4 7.3 2.0 0.2
Green Bay 7 - 11 0.6 3.8 11.6 22.1 25.4 20.7 11.5 3.8 0.6
Oakland 8 - 10 13.9 32.0 32.9 17.3 4.0
Youngstown St. 6 - 12 2.8 14.3 31.1 34.5 17.3
IUPUI 5 - 13 6.5 17.2 24.2 23.1 16.1 8.7 3.3 0.9 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 96.4% 87.9 8.3 0.2
Cleveland St. 11.6% 3.4 8.1 0.2
Detroit Mercy
Northern Kentucky
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0
Oakland
Youngstown St.
IUPUI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 69.8% 69.6% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 20.5 28.4 13.6 1.8 0.1 30.2 0.4%
Cleveland St. 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.1 0.9 91.7 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 96.9 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 97.8 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 95.1 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 96.6 0.0%
Green Bay 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.8 97.0 0.0%
Oakland 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%
IUPUI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 69.8% 0.1% 69.7% 17.9% 5.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 8.3% 0.1% 8.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 3.1% 1.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 2.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.9% 2.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.4% 1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 3.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 2.5% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 93.2% 0.9 6.8 93.1 0.0
2nd Round 18.4% 0.2 81.6 18.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0