Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#205
Pace71.2#145
Improvement-1.4#253

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#241
First Shot-1.5#210
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#242
Layup/Dunks-5.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#210
Freethrows+2.2#55
Improvement-2.3#311

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#180
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#246
Layups/Dunks+1.5#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#228
Freethrows+0.7#146
Improvement+1.0#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 9.1% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 59.0% 79.1% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.5% 77.1% 43.4%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four4.0% 3.5% 4.2%
First Round5.4% 7.5% 4.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 49 - 511 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 11, 2020 143   @ Kansas St. L 75-76 27%     0 - 1 +2.2 +8.4 -6.3
  Dec 13, 2020 262   @ Western Michigan W 71-63 55%     1 - 1 +3.4 -1.6 +5.2
  Dec 19, 2020 271   @ Green Bay W 68-65 57%     2 - 1 1 - 0 -2.2 -10.6 +8.4
  Dec 20, 2020 271   @ Green Bay W 74-62 57%     3 - 1 2 - 0 +6.8 -0.2 +7.8
  Jan 01, 2021 230   @ Robert Morris L 64-67 47%     3 - 2 -5.6 -10.1 +4.5
  Jan 08, 2021 289   IUPUI W 94-70 73%     4 - 2 3 - 0 +14.5 +9.4 +3.1
  Jan 09, 2021 289   IUPUI W 71-63 73%     5 - 2 4 - 0 -1.5 -9.3 +7.3
  Jan 15, 2021 193   Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-81 54%     5 - 3 -13.2 -11.3 -1.1
  Jan 16, 2021 193   Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-81 54%     5 - 4 -11.2 -8.5 -2.2
  Jan 22, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 65-68 36%    
  Jan 23, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 65-68 36%    
  Jan 29, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 73-70 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 73-70 56%    
  Feb 05, 2021 225   Northern Kentucky W 69-66 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 225   Northern Kentucky W 69-66 64%    
  Feb 12, 2021 79   @ Wright St. L 67-79 11%    
  Feb 13, 2021 79   @ Wright St. L 67-79 11%    
  Feb 19, 2021 254   Oakland W 75-71 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 254   Oakland W 75-71 70%    
Projected Record 10 - 9 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.4 2.7 0.2 11.9 2nd
3rd 1.1 9.1 18.8 13.8 4.8 0.4 48.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.0 8.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.3 2.1 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.8 1.9 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.4 2.6 7.2 14.4 19.9 22.6 17.4 10.5 4.0 0.8 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-5 82.2% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 22.2% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2
11-7 3.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 45.5% 45.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 21.9% 21.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 4.0% 17.5% 17.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.3
11-7 10.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 9.2
10-8 17.4% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 15.7
9-9 22.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.2 1.6 20.9
8-10 19.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.0
7-11 14.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 13.8
6-12 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.1
5-13 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.6 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%