Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#210
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#160
Pace71.3#144
Improvement-1.5#259

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#286
First Shot-2.7#245
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#263
Layup/Dunks-2.0#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#83
Freethrows-2.2#300
Improvement-2.4#314

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#141
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#205
Layups/Dunks-6.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.5#4
Freethrows-1.9#280
Improvement+0.9#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 79.1% 90.3% 67.6%
.500 or above in Conference 20.0% 30.8% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 3.7% 14.8%
First Four3.1% 3.3% 2.8%
First Round4.9% 6.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 411 - 313 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 300   @ Northern Illinois W 65-61 63%     1 - 0 -2.7 -5.5 +3.1
  Nov 28, 2020 233   Central Michigan W 74-72 62%     2 - 0 -4.3 -11.0 +6.4
  Dec 01, 2020 196   Valparaiso W 66-50 54%     3 - 0 +11.6 -3.4 +16.1
  Dec 05, 2020 134   @ Ball St. L 66-68 25%     3 - 1 +1.8 -4.7 +6.6
  Dec 13, 2020 57   Loyola Chicago L 66-77 15%     3 - 2 -3.0 +0.0 -3.5
  Dec 19, 2020 254   Oakland W 74-72 66%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -5.6 -7.7 +2.0
  Dec 20, 2020 254   Oakland W 90-73 66%     5 - 2 2 - 0 +9.4 +5.9 +2.3
  Jan 08, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 89-96 OT 40%     5 - 3 -7.7 -0.3 -6.3
  Jan 09, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 55-88 40%     5 - 4 -33.7 -25.3 -5.4
  Jan 15, 2021 230   Robert Morris W 67-53 61%     6 - 4 +7.9 -8.0 +16.1
  Jan 16, 2021 230   Robert Morris W 66-62 OT 61%     7 - 4 -2.1 -12.7 +10.4
  Jan 22, 2021 268   @ Youngstown St. W 73-71 51%    
  Jan 23, 2021 268   @ Youngstown St. W 73-71 51%    
  Jan 29, 2021 225   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-66 42%    
  Jan 30, 2021 225   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-66 43%    
  Feb 05, 2021 79   Wright St. L 66-75 25%    
  Feb 06, 2021 79   Wright St. L 66-75 25%    
  Feb 12, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 72-69 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 289   @ IUPUI W 72-69 56%    
  Feb 19, 2021 271   Green Bay W 74-69 73%    
  Feb 20, 2021 271   Green Bay W 74-69 72%    
Projected Record 12 - 9 7 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.5 7.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 17.8 3rd
4th 0.3 6.8 10.4 4.6 0.7 0.0 23.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 9.2 3.0 0.2 16.0 5th
6th 0.6 8.5 3.6 0.2 12.9 6th
7th 0.2 4.8 5.9 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.6 0.6 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.6 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.5 10th
Total 0.5 2.3 6.9 12.8 18.9 20.6 18.1 12.2 5.7 1.9 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 26.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 5.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 21.1% 21.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.9% 16.6% 16.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.6
10-8 5.7% 15.2% 15.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 4.8
9-9 12.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.8
8-10 18.1% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 16.7
7-11 20.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.1 1.2 19.3
6-12 18.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 18.2
5-13 12.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.5
4-14 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.8
3-15 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%