Merrimack
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#302
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#293
Pace64.6#295
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#322
First Shot-3.5#267
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#327
Layup/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#122
Freethrows-2.4#305
Improvement-1.3#257

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#229
First Shot-3.3#277
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#91
Layups/Dunks+3.9#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#312
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement+1.2#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 39.5% 65.0% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.5% 65.0% 31.9%
Conference Champion 7.2% 17.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 46 - 48 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 07, 2021 307   Sacred Heart W 97-90 OT 59%     1 - 0 1 - 0 -4.2 +6.0 -11.1
  Jan 08, 2021 307   Sacred Heart L 62-68 59%     1 - 1 1 - 1 -17.2 -11.2 -6.5
  Jan 14, 2021 231   @ Mount St. Mary's L 57-77 28%     1 - 2 1 - 2 -22.8 -15.3 -7.4
  Jan 15, 2021 231   @ Mount St. Mary's L 52-63 28%     1 - 3 1 - 3 -13.8 -15.1 +0.2
  Jan 21, 2021 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 62-51 62%     2 - 3 2 - 3 -1.0 -11.1 +11.5
  Jan 22, 2021 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-71 62%     3 - 3 3 - 3 -7.0 -8.3 +1.1
  Jan 26, 2021 220   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-72 23%    
  Jan 27, 2021 220   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-72 21%    
  Jan 30, 2021 293   @ Wagner L 62-65 36%    
  Jan 31, 2021 293   @ Wagner L 62-65 34%    
  Feb 04, 2021 257   St. Francis (PA) L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 05, 2021 257   St. Francis (PA) L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 11, 2021 334   @ Central Connecticut St. W 68-65 56%    
  Feb 12, 2021 334   @ Central Connecticut St. W 68-65 56%    
  Feb 17, 2021 170   Bryant L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 170   Bryant L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 25, 2021 288   St. Francis Brooklyn W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 26, 2021 288   St. Francis Brooklyn W 70-69 56%    
Projected Record 8 - 10 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 2.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.5 4.7 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 4.9 0.6 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 1.9 6.7 0.9 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 5.5 4.3 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.4 4.9 7.0 0.6 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 8.2 2.8 14.2 7th
8th 0.7 4.2 8.5 3.2 0.2 16.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 4.2 7.9 13.5 16.8 17.4 15.7 11.4 6.8 3.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
13-5 92.7% 1.1    1.0 0.2
12-6 62.4% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.0
11-7 34.0% 2.3    0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-8 6.9% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.5% 0.5
13-5 1.2% 1.2
12-6 3.8% 3.8
11-7 6.8% 6.8
10-8 11.4% 11.4
9-9 15.7% 15.7
8-10 17.4% 17.4
7-11 16.8% 16.8
6-12 13.5% 13.5
5-13 7.9% 7.9
4-14 4.2% 4.2
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%