Wagner
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#295
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#329
Pace63.7#310
Improvement-0.3#207

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#270
First Shot-6.8#322
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#40
Layup/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#209
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement+0.0#157

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#300
First Shot-6.4#334
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#65
Layups/Dunks-3.6#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#117
Freethrows-6.7#346
Improvement-0.4#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 8.4% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 18.4% 30.4% 9.5%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 36.9% 12.5%
Conference Champion 4.1% 7.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 5.1% 3.3%
First Round3.6% 5.6% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 46 - 47 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 45   @ Seton Hall L 45-78 4%     0 - 1 -20.3 -21.5 +0.3
  Dec 16, 2020 177   @ Bryant L 62-74 20%     0 - 2 0 - 1 -11.7 -8.9 -3.5
  Dec 17, 2020 177   @ Bryant L 75-81 20%     0 - 3 0 - 2 -5.7 -4.0 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2020 304   Sacred Heart W 74-46 60%     1 - 3 1 - 2 +17.1 +2.1 +17.4
  Dec 22, 2020 304   Sacred Heart L 85-86 2OT 60%     1 - 4 1 - 3 -11.9 -4.3 -7.5
  Jan 14, 2021 212   LIU Brooklyn L 66-77 37%     1 - 5 1 - 4 -16.1 -10.2 -5.5
  Jan 15, 2021 212   LIU Brooklyn L 68-71 43%    
  Jan 26, 2021 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 59-63 30%    
  Jan 27, 2021 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 59-63 30%    
  Jan 30, 2021 312   Merrimack W 67-64 66%    
  Jan 31, 2021 312   Merrimack W 67-64 66%    
  Feb 04, 2021 291   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 05, 2021 291   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 11, 2021 301   Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-73 62%    
  Feb 20, 2021 249   St. Francis (PA) L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 21, 2021 249   St. Francis (PA) L 71-72 51%    
  Feb 25, 2021 332   @ Central Connecticut St. W 71-68 56%    
  Feb 26, 2021 332   @ Central Connecticut St. W 71-68 56%    
Projected Record 7 - 11 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 2.4 0.2 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 4.6 0.4 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.2 1.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.4 3.4 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.3 6.5 0.4 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.5 1.1 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.3 5.4 1.4 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 1.8 4.2 8.2 13.2 16.6 17.4 15.2 11.3 6.8 3.4 1.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 94.3% 0.1    0.1
12-6 91.7% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 54.5% 1.8    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0
10-8 14.6% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 41.8% 41.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.3% 29.1% 29.1% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
11-7 3.4% 21.4% 21.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.6
10-8 6.8% 13.9% 13.9% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.8
9-9 11.3% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 10.3
8-10 15.2% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.0 14.2
7-11 17.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.9 16.5
6-12 16.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 16.1
5-13 13.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.0
4-14 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-15 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.0 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.8 44.1 27.1 28.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.3%