Nevada
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#115
Pace74.5#65
Improvement+1.3#98

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#173
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#123
Freethrows+2.5#37
Improvement+3.1#25

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#126
First Shot+0.3#172
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#73
Layups/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#241
Freethrows-2.2#293
Improvement-1.8#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 95.1% 97.0% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.8% 87.7%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 4.8% 3.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 23 - 7
Quad 35 - 37 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 158   North Dakota St. W 62-48 67%     1 - 0 +14.3 -9.9 +24.3
  Nov 26, 2020 124   @ Nebraska W 69-66 49%     2 - 0 +8.0 -3.9 +11.9
  Nov 30, 2020 113   Pacific W 70-58 60%     3 - 0 +14.3 +3.8 +11.1
  Dec 02, 2020 88   San Francisco L 60-85 51%     3 - 1 -20.4 -12.3 -7.1
  Dec 11, 2020 147   @ Grand Canyon L 77-87 57%     3 - 2 -6.9 +6.0 -13.2
  Dec 14, 2020 204   @ San Diego W 79-72 72%     4 - 2 +5.8 +0.2 +4.9
  Dec 18, 2020 268   Air Force W 74-57 88%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +8.8 -2.9 +11.9
  Dec 20, 2020 268   Air Force L 66-68 88%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -10.2 -10.6 +0.4
  Dec 31, 2020 243   New Mexico W 68-54 83%     6 - 3 2 - 1 +8.8 -8.6 +17.0
  Jan 02, 2021 243   New Mexico W 84-74 83%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +4.8 +19.1 -13.1
  Jan 07, 2021 44   @ San Diego St. L 60-65 22%     7 - 4 3 - 2 +7.9 -0.9 +8.5
  Jan 09, 2021 44   @ San Diego St. L 67-69 22%     7 - 5 3 - 3 +10.9 +7.1 +3.6
  Jan 14, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 74-65 82%    
  Jan 15, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 73-57 79%     8 - 5 4 - 3 +12.2 +4.4 +9.1
  Jan 16, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 74-65 82%    
  Jan 17, 2021 183   Fresno St. W 79-65 79%     9 - 5 5 - 3 +10.2 +3.9 +6.1
  Jan 22, 2021 181   @ Wyoming W 80-75 63%    
  Jan 24, 2021 181   @ Wyoming W 80-75 63%    
  Jan 31, 2021 117   UNLV W 75-72 66%    
  Feb 02, 2021 117   UNLV W 75-72 65%    
  Feb 05, 2021 36   Boise St. L 72-77 36%    
  Feb 07, 2021 36   Boise St. L 72-77 36%    
  Feb 13, 2021 324   @ San Jose St. W 89-74 89%    
  Feb 15, 2021 324   @ San Jose St. W 89-74 89%    
  Feb 19, 2021 74   Colorado St. L 74-75 52%    
  Feb 21, 2021 74   Colorado St. L 74-75 52%    
  Feb 26, 2021 35   @ Utah St. L 67-76 18%    
  Feb 28, 2021 35   @ Utah St. L 67-76 19%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 9.2 10.0 3.8 0.5 27.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.1 9.0 7.3 0.8 23.3 4th
5th 0.5 2.7 8.0 11.1 6.7 1.2 30.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.4 11.2 17.3 18.8 18.2 13.5 7.8 3.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 98.7% 0.1    0.1
18-2 63.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 20.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
15-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 50.6% 50.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.6%
18-2 0.6% 37.1% 18.3% 18.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 23.0%
17-3 3.2% 14.8% 12.2% 2.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 2.9%
16-4 7.8% 11.4% 10.4% 1.0% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 6.9 1.1%
15-5 13.5% 8.2% 8.2% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 12.4
14-6 18.2% 5.7% 5.7% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 17.2
13-7 18.8% 2.5% 2.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 18.3
12-8 17.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 17.0
11-9 11.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1
10-10 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 5.3
9-11 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 1.0% 1.0
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.3 95.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 50.6% 11.0 1.3 49.4