Pacific
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#134
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#111
Pace64.4#297
Improvement+0.7#136

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#183
First Shot-1.8#222
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#101
Layup/Dunks+6.2#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#288
Freethrows-2.4#307
Improvement-0.5#209

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#100
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#71
Layups/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#306
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement+1.2#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 18.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 17.6% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.6 10.4 11.7
.500 or above 49.2% 88.4% 48.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.5% 69.3% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 0.0% 4.2%
First Four0.9% 2.6% 0.9%
First Round1.4% 17.5% 1.3%
Second Round0.3% 4.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 34 - 26 - 9
Quad 43 - 19 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 138   UC Riverside W 66-60 59%     1 - 0 +6.1 +1.5 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2020 113   @ Nevada L 58-70 37%     1 - 1 -6.1 -8.8 +2.1
  Dec 02, 2020 182   Montana St. W 74-70 OT 70%     2 - 1 +0.8 -3.2 +3.8
  Jan 14, 2021 164   Santa Clara W 79-58 67%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +18.8 +14.2 +5.9
  Jan 16, 2021 125   Loyola Marymount W 58-49 56%     4 - 1 2 - 0 +9.8 -12.1 +21.8
  Jan 21, 2021 128   @ Pepperdine L 68-85 42%     4 - 2 2 - 1 -12.5 -9.6 -1.5
  Jan 23, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 64-87 1%    
  Jan 28, 2021 164   @ Santa Clara W 66-65 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 82   St. Mary's L 58-61 45%    
  Feb 04, 2021 75   San Francisco L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 06, 2021 194   @ San Diego W 68-65 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 125   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-65 38%    
  Feb 18, 2021 32   BYU L 64-72 27%    
  Feb 20, 2021 292   @ Portland W 74-65 75%    
  Feb 21, 2021 292   @ Portland W 74-65 75%    
  Feb 25, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 65-85 5%    
  Feb 27, 2021 82   @ St. Mary's L 57-63 25%    
Projected Record 8 - 9 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 7.4 3.1 0.2 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 10.0 4.4 0.2 16.4 5th
6th 1.3 9.5 6.5 0.2 17.6 6th
7th 0.6 7.4 8.4 0.9 17.3 7th
8th 0.5 5.8 7.6 1.6 15.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 3.4 1.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.5 10th
Total 0.8 4.1 10.0 17.3 21.4 20.1 13.8 8.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 8.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 92.0% 20.0% 72.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
11-5 0.8% 49.7% 3.1% 46.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 48.1%
10-6 3.2% 19.8% 3.0% 16.8% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.6 17.3%
9-7 8.6% 5.8% 1.3% 4.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.1 4.5%
8-8 13.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.6 0.1%
7-9 20.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.0
6-10 21.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 21.3
5-11 17.3% 17.3
4-12 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-13 4.1% 4.1
2-14 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.0% 0.6% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.0 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%