UNLV
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#110
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#133
Pace68.0#221
Improvement+4.5#14

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#111
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#294
Layup/Dunks-3.2#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#10
Freethrows-1.8#287
Improvement-1.2#253

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#112
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#147
Layups/Dunks+5.5#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#294
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement+5.7#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.9
.500 or above 75.0% 78.3% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 80.8% 47.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round3.1% 3.3% 1.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 32 - 9
Quad 32 - 14 - 10
Quad 49 - 213 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 182   Montana St. L 78-91 76%     0 - 1 -16.1 +1.7 -17.0
  Nov 30, 2020 26   North Carolina L 51-78 21%     0 - 2 -14.1 -16.6 +3.3
  Dec 01, 2020 8   Alabama L 74-86 11%     0 - 3 +5.6 +5.0 +1.3
  Dec 02, 2020 64   Davidson L 73-77 34%     0 - 4 +4.8 +4.3 +0.4
  Dec 05, 2020 152   @ Kansas St. W 68-58 59%     1 - 4 +12.2 +4.6 +8.7
  Jan 07, 2021 69   @ Colorado St. L 71-74 30%     1 - 5 0 - 1 +6.8 +0.5 +6.4
  Jan 09, 2021 69   @ Colorado St. L 80-83 30%     1 - 6 0 - 2 +6.8 +12.0 -5.2
  Jan 14, 2021 257   New Mexico W 72-60 90%    
  Jan 16, 2021 257   New Mexico W 77-54 87%     2 - 6 1 - 2 +15.2 +7.3 +9.8
  Jan 18, 2021 257   New Mexico W 53-46 87%     3 - 6 2 - 2 -0.8 -17.6 +17.5
  Jan 25, 2021 52   Utah St. W 59-56 33%     4 - 6 3 - 2 +11.9 -7.4 +19.1
  Jan 27, 2021 52   Utah St. L 65-69 39%    
  Jan 31, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 02, 2021 118   @ Nevada L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 06, 2021 289   Air Force W 73-59 93%    
  Feb 08, 2021 289   Air Force W 73-59 93%    
  Feb 11, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 66-75 17%    
  Feb 13, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 66-75 17%    
  Feb 19, 2021 321   @ San Jose St. W 83-69 87%    
  Feb 21, 2021 321   @ San Jose St. W 83-69 87%    
  Feb 24, 2021 184   Fresno St. W 70-62 80%    
  Feb 26, 2021 184   Fresno St. W 70-62 80%    
Projected Record 12 - 10 11 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.1 13.7 13.4 4.2 0.3 37.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 10.0 16.3 10.4 2.3 0.1 41.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.2 13.7 22.3 24.9 18.5 8.9 2.5 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.3% 30.8% 15.1% 15.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 18.5%
14-6 2.5% 12.0% 9.9% 2.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.4%
13-7 8.9% 6.4% 6.2% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.3 0.2%
12-8 18.5% 4.2% 4.2% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 17.7
11-9 24.9% 3.0% 3.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 24.1
10-10 22.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 21.9
9-11 13.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.5
8-12 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.0% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 96.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.1 2.0 10.0 28.0 22.0 16.0 16.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 40.9% 11.4 2.3 2.3 13.6 20.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 8.8% 11.4 5.3 3.5