Rice
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#178
Pace73.1#89
Improvement+0.8#132

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#173
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#171
Layup/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#8
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+1.9#59

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#228
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#149
Layups/Dunks+1.0#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#232
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement-1.2#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 24.8% 43.3% 16.5%
.500 or above in Conference 16.1% 32.1% 8.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.1% 1.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 48 - 212 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 320   @ Incarnate Word W 68-53 74%     1 - 0 +6.1 -13.4 +18.8
  Dec 05, 2020 332   @ Houston Baptist W 86-64 80%     2 - 0 +10.7 +0.4 +9.2
  Dec 13, 2020 258   New Mexico L 61-72 70%     2 - 1 -18.8 -13.3 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2020 332   Houston Baptist W 90-79 88%     3 - 1 -4.0 -2.3 -2.9
  Dec 19, 2020 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-82 39%     3 - 2 -12.4 -9.4 -1.9
  Dec 21, 2020 300   New Orleans W 73-62 79%     4 - 2 +0.4 -1.4 +2.5
  Jan 01, 2021 200   Texas San Antonio W 95-86 60%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +4.2 +7.7 -4.3
  Jan 02, 2021 200   Texas San Antonio W 84-69 60%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +10.2 +1.0 +8.4
  Jan 08, 2021 147   @ UTEP L 89-101 31%     6 - 3 2 - 1 -9.2 +19.8 -29.5
  Jan 09, 2021 147   @ UTEP W 71-68 31%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +5.8 -1.8 +7.6
  Jan 15, 2021 158   Old Dominion W 69-59 47%     8 - 3 4 - 1 +8.4 +2.2 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2021 158   Old Dominion L 58-61 47%     8 - 4 4 - 2 -4.6 -14.7 +10.2
  Jan 22, 2021 98   @ UAB L 68-78 18%     8 - 5 4 - 3 -2.7 -1.1 -1.5
  Jan 23, 2021 98   @ UAB L 74-86 18%     8 - 6 4 - 4 -4.7 +1.9 -6.0
  Jan 28, 2021 90   North Texas L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 30, 2021 90   @ North Texas L 63-73 15%    
  Feb 05, 2021 223   Southern Miss W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 06, 2021 223   Southern Miss W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 12, 2021 84   @ Western Kentucky L 69-80 13%    
  Feb 13, 2021 84   @ Western Kentucky L 69-80 12%    
  Feb 19, 2021 81   Marshall L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 20, 2021 81   Marshall L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 26, 2021 114   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-77 20%    
  Feb 27, 2021 114   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-77 20%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.3 3.2 4th
5th 0.6 3.1 1.3 5.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 4.2 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 7.4 1.4 11.5 7th
8th 1.1 8.7 5.6 0.3 15.5 8th
9th 0.2 6.3 10.4 1.7 18.6 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 11.2 3.4 0.1 17.2 10th
11th 0.6 5.6 4.7 0.3 11.2 11th
12th 1.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.8 0.6 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 2.8 12.4 23.9 25.7 19.0 10.0 4.3 1.4 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 22.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 7.1% 7.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.4% 6.8% 6.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-8 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
9-9 10.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
8-10 19.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 18.9
7-11 25.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 25.7
6-12 23.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.8
5-13 12.4% 12.4
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%