UTEP
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Pace67.1#247
Improvement-2.9#313

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#151
First Shot+0.2#173
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks-2.4#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#96
Freethrows-1.1#246
Improvement-0.3#191

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.4#215
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks+0.6#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#22
Freethrows-3.7#333
Improvement-2.6#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 27.8% 41.5% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.9% 60.5% 27.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round2.0% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 45 - 10
Quad 45 - 310 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 76   @ St. Mary's L 61-73 19%     0 - 1 -2.9 +1.4 -5.7
  Dec 12, 2020 28   @ Arizona L 61-69 9%     0 - 2 +6.5 -4.4 +10.6
  Dec 16, 2020 83   @ Arizona St. W 76-63 20%     1 - 2 +21.7 +0.8 +19.9
  Jan 01, 2021 224   @ Southern Miss L 66-74 OT 59%     1 - 3 0 - 1 -10.5 -11.9 +2.1
  Jan 02, 2021 224   @ Southern Miss W 77-62 59%     2 - 3 1 - 1 +12.5 +16.1 -1.4
  Jan 08, 2021 194   Rice W 101-89 65%     3 - 3 2 - 1 +7.9 +28.8 -20.4
  Jan 09, 2021 194   Rice L 68-71 65%     3 - 4 2 - 2 -7.1 -8.2 +1.2
  Jan 15, 2021 89   @ North Texas L 33-63 23%     3 - 5 2 - 3 -22.4 -32.8 +8.5
  Jan 16, 2021 89   @ North Texas L 65-74 23%     3 - 6 2 - 4 -1.4 +7.1 -9.9
  Jan 22, 2021 103   Louisiana Tech W 82-74 38%     4 - 6 3 - 4 +11.1 +10.9 +0.0
  Jan 23, 2021 103   Louisiana Tech L 55-73 38%     4 - 7 3 - 5 -14.9 -14.2 -0.7
  Jan 28, 2021 198   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-77 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 198   Texas San Antonio W 80-76 70%    
  Feb 05, 2021 97   @ UAB L 66-73 21%    
  Feb 06, 2021 97   @ UAB L 66-73 21%    
  Feb 12, 2021 220   Florida International W 78-72 74%    
  Feb 13, 2021 220   Florida International W 78-72 74%    
  Feb 19, 2021 177   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-70 43%    
  Feb 20, 2021 177   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-70 43%    
  Feb 26, 2021 164   Charlotte W 64-62 62%    
  Feb 27, 2021 164   Charlotte W 64-62 62%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 2.5 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.7 6.2 0.6 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.9 8.8 1.4 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 9.3 3.3 0.1 14.5 7th
8th 0.2 5.8 5.4 0.3 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 6.5 1.3 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.2 3.9 2.8 0.1 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 3.8 0.5 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.6 10.6 17.6 21.7 20.2 14.3 6.9 2.2 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 38.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 14.4% 14.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 2.2% 8.2% 8.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.4
10-8 14.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 13.7
9-9 20.2% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.8
8-10 21.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 21.5
7-11 17.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.4
6-12 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-13 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.1 8.7 8.7 45.7 34.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%