Marshall
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#81
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Pace79.1#24
Improvement-3.0#316

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#89
First Shot+5.2#51
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#275
Layup/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#77
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement-0.8#233

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#81
First Shot+3.8#65
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#201
Layups/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#244
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement-2.2#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 27.1% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.1% 5.9% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 12.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 93.2% 73.6%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.7% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.7% 2.9% 1.1%
First Round24.0% 25.4% 15.8%
Second Round6.5% 7.0% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 38 - 410 - 7
Quad 48 - 018 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 276   Arkansas St. W 70-56 92%     1 - 0 +5.0 -15.3 +19.1
  Dec 03, 2020 65   @ Wright St. W 80-64 37%     2 - 0 +26.4 +6.0 +19.0
  Dec 09, 2020 202   @ College of Charleston W 84-72 78%     3 - 0 +10.9 +10.4 +0.7
  Dec 13, 2020 124   Ohio W 81-67 71%     4 - 0 +15.1 +4.3 +10.7
  Dec 16, 2020 74   Toledo L 87-96 OT 56%     4 - 1 -3.6 -4.7 +3.0
  Dec 20, 2020 261   Robert Morris W 85-71 91%     5 - 1 +6.0 -4.0 +8.3
  Dec 22, 2020 232   UNC Asheville W 88-67 89%     6 - 1 +14.3 +3.3 +9.5
  Jan 01, 2021 114   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-75 55%     6 - 2 0 - 1 -1.3 -1.5 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2021 114   @ Louisiana Tech W 80-73 55%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +12.7 +7.8 +4.6
  Jan 15, 2021 84   @ Western Kentucky L 73-81 43%     7 - 3 1 - 2 +0.6 -1.5 +2.7
  Jan 17, 2021 84   Western Kentucky L 67-69 58%     7 - 4 1 - 3 +2.9 -3.3 +6.2
  Jan 22, 2021 220   @ Florida International W 79-66 80%     8 - 4 2 - 3 +10.9 -3.4 +13.2
  Jan 23, 2021 220   @ Florida International W 89-72 80%     9 - 4 3 - 3 +14.9 +12.2 +2.5
  Jan 28, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic W 80-70 85%    
  Jan 30, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic W 80-70 84%    
  Feb 05, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 158   @ Old Dominion W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 11, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 81-65 94%    
  Feb 13, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 81-65 94%    
  Feb 19, 2021 190   @ Rice W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 20, 2021 190   @ Rice W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 25, 2021 90   North Texas W 71-68 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 90   North Texas W 71-68 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 6 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.9 5.8 1st
2nd 0.4 4.6 8.6 4.3 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.2 13.7 8.2 1.2 27.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 9.7 6.9 0.8 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 6.5 0.9 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 1.9 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.8 1.9 0.2 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 6.5 13.1 22.1 26.4 20.1 8.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 34.6% 2.9    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0
12-6 12.5% 2.5    0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.1 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.5% 55.1% 34.6% 20.5% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 3.8 31.4%
12-6 20.1% 39.1% 31.0% 8.1% 11.6 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.3 11.7%
11-7 26.4% 25.1% 22.8% 2.3% 12.1 0.1 1.0 3.8 1.6 0.1 19.8 3.0%
10-8 22.1% 18.8% 18.6% 0.2% 12.4 0.2 2.1 1.7 0.1 17.9 0.3%
9-9 13.1% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 11.8
8-10 6.5% 9.4% 9.4% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.9
7-11 2.3% 7.4% 7.4% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
6-12 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 14.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.5% 21.5% 4.0% 11.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 1.5 4.1 11.3 5.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 74.5 5.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 7.9 3.1 8.7 16.0 19.4 11.4 20.2 11.9 6.3 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 43.8% 11.1 0.6 2.0 8.9 17.0 12.4 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 28.2% 11.1 2.6 4.9 8.9 9.6 2.1