UAB
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#104
Pace69.2#193
Improvement-2.9#312

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot+0.4#170
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#79
Layup/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#331
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+0.1#158

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#85
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#244
Layups/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#65
Freethrows+2.5#35
Improvement-3.0#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 18.6% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.2% 93.8%
Conference Champion 29.0% 32.6% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round17.1% 18.1% 12.9%
Second Round3.5% 3.9% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 33 - 35 - 4
Quad 414 - 219 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 336   Alcorn St. W 99-50 96%     1 - 0 +33.6 +8.7 +20.3
  Nov 28, 2020 325   SE Louisiana W 84-59 95%     2 - 0 +11.4 -3.8 +12.9
  Dec 02, 2020 341   Kennesaw St. W 73-48 97%     3 - 0 +8.9 -1.8 +11.1
  Dec 06, 2020 273   Troy W 77-55 90%     4 - 0 +13.3 +1.1 +11.9
  Dec 12, 2020 131   @ East Tennessee St. W 65-61 54%     5 - 0 +8.3 -3.7 +12.0
  Dec 16, 2020 296   Southern W 88-46 92%     6 - 0 +31.8 +1.9 +25.0
  Dec 19, 2020 180   Chattanooga L 66-69 79%     6 - 1 -5.9 -7.6 +1.6
  Jan 08, 2021 224   Southern Miss W 72-60 85%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +6.2 +11.1 -2.8
  Jan 09, 2021 224   Southern Miss W 62-58 85%     8 - 1 2 - 0 -1.8 -1.2 +0.0
  Jan 15, 2021 164   @ Charlotte W 61-37 66%     9 - 1 3 - 0 +25.3 +0.0 +28.9
  Jan 16, 2021 164   @ Charlotte L 55-70 66%     9 - 2 3 - 1 -13.7 -4.4 -12.3
  Jan 22, 2021 194   Rice W 78-68 81%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +5.9 +1.3 +4.5
  Jan 23, 2021 194   Rice W 86-74 81%     11 - 2 5 - 1 +7.9 +5.8 +1.6
  Jan 28, 2021 274   @ Middle Tennessee W 72-61 81%    
  Jan 30, 2021 274   Middle Tennessee W 73-59 93%    
  Feb 05, 2021 161   UTEP W 73-66 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 161   UTEP W 73-66 79%    
  Feb 12, 2021 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-69 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-69 41%    
  Feb 19, 2021 160   Old Dominion W 70-63 77%    
  Feb 20, 2021 160   Old Dominion W 70-63 77%    
  Feb 25, 2021 198   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-74 68%    
  Feb 27, 2021 198   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-74 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 5 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 10.3 10.7 4.1 29.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.6 12.6 11.7 3.4 0.3 31.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 8.9 7.3 1.1 19.3 3rd
4th 0.5 4.7 4.8 0.8 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.4 9.9 18.0 24.2 23.1 14.2 4.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 93.4% 4.1    3.3 0.8
14-4 75.6% 10.7    6.7 3.9 0.1
13-5 44.7% 10.3    3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.6% 3.5    0.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 14.1 11.2 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.4% 40.6% 29.7% 10.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 15.5%
14-4 14.2% 26.9% 24.9% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 2.7%
13-5 23.1% 20.8% 20.5% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 18.3 0.4%
12-6 24.2% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.0 0.1 20.3 0.0%
11-7 18.0% 12.5% 12.5% 13.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 15.8
10-8 9.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-9 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2
8-10 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.5% 16.7% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 4.6 7.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 82.5 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 8.2 0.2 1.3 7.1 18.7 14.4 13.9 15.6 13.0 9.8 5.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 26.1% 11.5 0.7 1.3 3.4 6.0 8.8 5.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 13.0% 11.8 0.2 0.6 2.6 7.0 2.5