Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#297
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#261
Pace73.0#99
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#317
First Shot-6.0#308
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#202
Layup/Dunks+1.9#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#336
Freethrows-0.8#225
Improvement-2.1#302

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#220
First Shot-3.8#297
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#61
Layups/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#222
Freethrows-1.0#234
Improvement+2.0#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 17.4% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 75.2% 81.5% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 90.0% 67.5%
Conference Champion 24.5% 28.8% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.0% 13.1% 8.2%
First Round8.3% 9.6% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 411 - 412 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 238   NC Central L 78-85 OT 36%     0 - 1 -11.9 -5.8 -5.3
  Nov 27, 2020 3   @ Iowa L 76-103 1%     0 - 2 -6.2 +1.6 -5.5
  Dec 09, 2020 29   @ Arkansas L 44-79 3%     0 - 3 -20.8 -24.5 +5.3
  Dec 16, 2020 95   @ UAB L 46-88 9%     0 - 4 -35.5 -27.9 -2.6
  Jan 09, 2021 313   @ Grambling St. W 61-55 50%     1 - 4 1 - 0 -2.4 -14.7 +12.2
  Jan 16, 2021 336   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-68 78%    
  Jan 18, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 86-66 98%    
  Jan 23, 2021 333   @ Alabama A&M W 71-68 57%    
  Jan 25, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 30, 2021 343   @ Alcorn St. W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 06, 2021 313   Grambling St. W 69-66 66%    
  Feb 08, 2021 309   Jackson St. W 68-65 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 336   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-70 57%    
  Feb 15, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 85-68 92%    
  Feb 20, 2021 333   Alabama A&M W 72-66 75%    
  Feb 22, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 71-58 89%    
  Feb 27, 2021 343   Alcorn St. W 80-70 83%    
  Mar 04, 2021 266   @ Prairie View L 68-72 33%    
  Mar 06, 2021 228   @ Texas Southern L 70-76 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 8 11 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.5 8.5 5.1 1.4 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.9 9.5 8.9 3.6 0.2 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.5 9.8 6.6 2.0 0.2 26.4 3rd
4th 0.7 3.8 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.5 12.7 17.1 18.8 17.5 12.3 5.3 1.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.4    1.4
14-4 95.4% 5.1    4.1 1.0 0.0
13-5 69.6% 8.5    4.8 3.3 0.4
12-6 37.4% 6.5    2.6 3.2 0.8 0.0
11-7 12.8% 2.4    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 24.5% 24.5 13.5 8.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.4% 48.3% 48.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7
14-4 5.3% 39.1% 39.1% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.4 3.3
13-5 12.3% 27.2% 27.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.1 8.9
12-6 17.5% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.0 3.7 13.7
11-7 18.8% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 2.6 16.2
10-8 17.1% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 1.8 15.3
9-9 12.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.8 11.8
8-10 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 7.1
7-11 4.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-12 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 14.0 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.2 2.4 11.4 48.0 38.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%