Iowa
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#4
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#11
Pace74.7#58
Improvement-1.5#251

Offense
Total Offense+15.5#2
First Shot+12.5#3
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#34
Layup/Dunks+5.7#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#20
Freethrows+2.1#48
Improvement-2.2#307

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#95
First Shot+3.9#66
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#229
Layups/Dunks+3.5#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#329
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement+0.7#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.2% 8.2% 2.8%
#1 Seed 25.9% 36.4% 17.7%
Top 2 Seed 58.5% 73.0% 47.2%
Top 4 Seed 90.4% 96.4% 85.7%
Top 6 Seed 97.1% 99.3% 95.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 100.0% 99.3%
Average Seed 2.6 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 98.2% 90.3%
Conference Champion 34.9% 50.8% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Round99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round92.1% 94.7% 90.0%
Sweet Sixteen65.4% 69.6% 62.2%
Elite Eight40.0% 44.7% 36.4%
Final Four21.5% 25.0% 18.8%
Championship Game10.5% 12.6% 8.9%
National Champion4.8% 6.0% 3.8%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 25 - 114 - 8
Quad 31 - 015 - 8
Quad 44 - 020 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 236   NC Central W 97-67 98%     1 - 0 +23.4 +22.6 +1.3
  Nov 27, 2020 296   Southern W 103-76 99%     2 - 0 +16.8 +18.6 -4.0
  Dec 03, 2020 320   Western Illinois W 99-58 99%     3 - 0 +28.5 +4.1 +18.1
  Dec 08, 2020 26   North Carolina W 93-80 76%     4 - 0 +24.2 +15.9 +6.9
  Dec 11, 2020 125   Iowa St. W 105-77 93%     5 - 0 +29.5 +29.8 -1.1
  Dec 13, 2020 295   Northern Illinois W 106-53 99%     6 - 0 +42.9 +24.3 +16.1
  Dec 19, 2020 1   Gonzaga L 88-99 27%     6 - 1 +13.8 +8.5 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2020 30   Purdue W 70-55 77%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +25.9 +9.4 +17.8
  Dec 25, 2020 31   @ Minnesota L 95-102 OT 66%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +7.2 +21.0 -13.2
  Dec 29, 2020 74   Northwestern W 87-72 88%     8 - 2 2 - 1 +20.9 +18.4 +2.9
  Jan 02, 2021 41   @ Rutgers W 77-75 70%     9 - 2 3 - 1 +15.1 +9.8 +5.2
  Jan 07, 2021 43   @ Maryland W 89-67 71%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +34.8 +16.4 +17.2
  Jan 10, 2021 31   Minnesota W 86-71 77%     11 - 2 5 - 1 +25.9 +16.2 +9.2
  Jan 17, 2021 74   @ Northwestern W 96-73 81%     12 - 2 6 - 1 +32.2 +24.9 +6.9
  Jan 21, 2021 24   Indiana L 69-81 75%     12 - 3 6 - 2 -0.5 +3.8 -4.6
  Jan 29, 2021 9   @ Illinois L 83-84 44%    
  Feb 04, 2021 15   Ohio St. W 82-77 72%    
  Feb 07, 2021 24   @ Indiana W 80-76 59%    
  Feb 10, 2021 41   Rutgers W 84-75 83%    
  Feb 13, 2021 42   @ Michigan St. W 85-79 66%    
  Feb 18, 2021 13   @ Wisconsin W 75-74 49%    
  Feb 21, 2021 54   Penn St. W 89-79 84%    
  Feb 28, 2021 15   @ Ohio St. W 81-79 51%    
  Mar 04, 2021 3   @ Michigan L 79-81 38%    
  Mar 07, 2021 13   Wisconsin W 76-72 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.3 11.8 13.3 6.3 1.4 34.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 9.2 8.3 1.1 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.3 8.4 1.1 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.9 6.9 2.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 4.3 0.2 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.5 10.6 17.5 22.5 21.2 14.4 6.3 1.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 1.4    1.4
15-5 100.0% 6.3    6.0 0.3
14-6 92.3% 13.3    9.0 3.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 55.5% 11.8    3.1 5.2 2.9 0.5 0.0
12-8 10.0% 2.3    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.9% 34.9 19.5 9.9 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.4% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.1 1.2 0.2 100.0%
15-5 6.3% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.3 4.6 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.5 8.2 5.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 21.2% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.8 7.5 10.8 2.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 22.5% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.3 3.5 9.7 7.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 17.5% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.1 0.8 3.8 7.6 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 10.6% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 4.5% 99.6% 7.4% 92.1% 5.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-12 1.4% 89.7% 5.9% 83.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.0%
7-13 0.2% 52.5% 0.8% 51.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 52.1%
6-14 0.0% 8.3% 5.6% 2.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9%
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 22.4% 77.3% 2.6 25.9 32.6 21.7 10.2 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.8 16.2