Troy
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#273
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#217
Pace67.8#230
Improvement+1.0#115

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#311
First Shot-5.6#308
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#174
Layup/Dunks-0.9#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#313
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+2.6#41

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#209
First Shot-1.1#201
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks+2.5#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#335
Freethrows+2.8#23
Improvement-1.5#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1.2% 2.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 2.8% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.7% 26.9% 52.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 45 - 47 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 198   Western Carolina W 66-64 34%     1 - 0 -0.8 -16.7 +15.7
  Nov 28, 2020 195   UNC Wilmington L 50-73 34%     1 - 1 -25.7 -18.5 -10.2
  Dec 04, 2020 15   @ Texas Tech L 46-80 2%     1 - 2 -16.7 -14.4 -4.0
  Dec 06, 2020 98   @ UAB L 55-77 10%     1 - 3 -14.7 -14.0 -0.5
  Dec 10, 2020 275   @ North Alabama W 62-57 43%     2 - 3 -0.2 -5.1 +5.4
  Dec 16, 2020 256   Samford W 79-71 53%     3 - 3 +0.2 -8.2 +7.4
  Dec 19, 2020 57   @ Auburn L 41-77 5%     3 - 4 -24.0 -24.9 -0.7
  Jan 01, 2021 171   @ Appalachian St. W 69-56 22%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +14.2 +1.0 +14.4
  Jan 02, 2021 171   @ Appalachian St. L 59-90 22%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -29.8 -14.1 -16.2
  Jan 15, 2021 237   @ Georgia Southern L 64-67 OT 36%     4 - 6 1 - 2 -6.2 -12.2 +6.2
  Jan 16, 2021 237   @ Georgia Southern L 56-63 36%     4 - 7 1 - 3 -10.2 -9.6 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2021 152   @ Coastal Carolina L 81-90 18%     4 - 8 1 - 4 -6.5 +7.0 -13.5
  Jan 23, 2021 152   @ Coastal Carolina L 65-70 18%     4 - 9 1 - 5 -2.5 -10.7 +8.4
  Jan 29, 2021 171   Appalachian St. L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 30, 2021 171   Appalachian St. L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 05, 2021 237   Georgia Southern L 65-66 54%    
  Feb 06, 2021 237   Georgia Southern L 65-66 54%    
  Feb 11, 2021 199   @ South Alabama L 65-71 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 199   South Alabama L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 19, 2021 137   @ Georgia St. L 65-76 14%    
  Feb 20, 2021 137   @ Georgia St. L 65-76 14%    
  Feb 26, 2021 152   Coastal Carolina L 69-75 34%    
  Feb 27, 2021 152   Coastal Carolina L 69-75 33%    
Projected Record 7 - 16 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 3.8 1.2 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.5 2.5 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.8 9.6 4.8 0.5 22.3 10th
11th 1.6 7.5 11.0 6.8 1.2 0.0 28.1 11th
12th 2.7 7.5 8.9 4.8 1.1 0.0 25.0 12th
Total 2.7 9.2 17.8 22.2 21.0 14.9 7.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 1.0% 1.0
8-10 3.3% 3.3
7-11 7.7% 7.7
6-12 14.9% 14.9
5-13 21.0% 21.0
4-14 22.2% 22.2
3-15 17.8% 17.8
2-16 9.2% 9.2
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%