Auburn
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#64
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#82
Pace73.1#95
Improvement+3.6#24

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#68
First Shot+2.5#109
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#56
Layup/Dunks+1.7#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#87
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+1.5#70

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot+4.5#53
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#204
Layups/Dunks+1.8#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#134
Freethrows+1.7#77
Improvement+2.1#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 42.7% 59.5% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 33.8% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 8
Quad 24 - 45 - 13
Quad 33 - 18 - 14
Quad 45 - 013 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 199   Saint Joseph's W 96-91 OT 86%     1 - 0 +2.2 +2.6 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2020 1   Gonzaga L 67-90 9%     1 - 1 +1.0 -2.8 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2020 92   @ Central Florida L 55-63 54%     1 - 2 -0.3 -16.8 +17.1
  Dec 04, 2020 211   South Alabama W 90-81 90%     2 - 2 +3.5 +9.5 -6.1
  Dec 12, 2020 63   Memphis W 74-71 49%     3 - 2 +12.1 +3.8 +8.1
  Dec 15, 2020 252   Texas Southern W 80-63 93%     4 - 2 +9.6 +3.0 +6.8
  Dec 19, 2020 282   Troy W 77-41 94%     5 - 2 +26.7 +4.6 +23.7
  Dec 22, 2020 182   Appalachian St. W 67-53 87%     6 - 2 +10.4 +4.1 +9.1
  Dec 30, 2020 44   Arkansas L 85-97 48%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -2.8 +10.9 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2021 121   @ Texas A&M L 66-68 64%     6 - 4 0 - 2 +3.2 -2.3 +5.5
  Jan 06, 2021 62   @ Mississippi L 61-72 41%     6 - 5 0 - 3 +0.0 -3.2 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2021 7   Alabama L 90-94 25%     6 - 6 0 - 4 +11.7 +5.8 +6.8
  Jan 13, 2021 95   @ Georgia W 95-77 56%     7 - 6 1 - 4 +25.3 +9.0 +13.2
  Jan 16, 2021 60   Kentucky W 66-59 53%     8 - 6 2 - 4 +14.9 +1.7 +13.5
  Jan 20, 2021 44   @ Arkansas L 73-75 35%     8 - 7 2 - 5 +10.9 +1.4 +9.6
  Jan 23, 2021 69   @ South Carolina L 76-77 42%    
  Jan 26, 2021 40   Missouri L 71-72 51%    
  Jan 30, 2021 2   @ Baylor L 66-82 6%    
  Feb 02, 2021 95   Georgia W 81-76 74%    
  Feb 06, 2021 62   Mississippi W 71-70 61%    
  Feb 09, 2021 137   @ Vanderbilt W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 60   @ Kentucky L 67-70 35%    
  Feb 16, 2021 79   Mississippi St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 20, 2021 29   @ LSU L 76-82 26%    
  Feb 23, 2021 22   Florida L 73-76 43%    
  Feb 27, 2021 13   Tennessee L 65-70 36%    
  Mar 02, 2021 7   @ Alabama L 75-86 14%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.9 3rd
4th 1.0 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 2.0 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 4.6 0.9 8.4 6th
7th 0.9 7.7 2.5 0.1 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 5.4 6.5 0.5 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 8.8 2.5 14.1 9th
10th 0.9 7.2 5.2 0.4 13.7 10th
11th 0.3 3.6 6.9 1.0 0.0 11.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 5.0 2.1 0.1 9.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.6 0.2 4.9 13th
14th 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.2 14th
Total 0.3 1.1 5.1 11.2 19.3 21.5 20.4 12.3 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.5% 0.5
11-7 2.0% 2.0
10-8 6.2% 6.2
9-9 12.3% 12.3
8-10 20.4% 20.4
7-11 21.5% 21.5
6-12 19.3% 19.3
5-13 11.2% 11.2
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%